Spread and Final Score Predictions For Hawks vs Grizzlies

The Atlanta Hawks are back in action tonight.

After dropping their first preseason game to the Houston Rockets, the Hawks have an excellent chance to get things back on track against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies made a massive trade this summer by sending Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for a haul of draft picks, Cole Anthony and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope. With the future of franchise point guard Ja Morant in question due to his frequent injuries, this season will be pivotal for deciding whether Memphis is able to retool their roster amidst contention for the playoffs or if a full-scale rebuild is necessary.

This preseason is critical for evaluating their depth. After selecting Jaylen Wells in the second round out of Washington State last year, they turned him into a starting-caliber player who competed for Rookie of the Year honors in 2024-25. The Grizzlies have built a reputation as one of the best development programs in the NBA, so it's worth watching to see if Atlanta can find success against their intriguing group of young talent.

Despite the Grizzlies' track record of producing strong preseason performers, there's several reasons to be optimistic about Atlanta's chances tonight. One of the biggest has to be Jalen Johnson. While Trae Young won't play a ton of minutes, Johnson should get some extended run as he makes his way back from a season-ending shoulder injury. Against a massive Rockets lineup, he finished with 11 points, two steals, and two blocks on 62% shooting from the field and 50% shooting from three-point range. No one on the Hawks has his unique blend of athleticism, two-way play and physicality. In one sequence, he blocked Josh Okogie's shot, ran the length of the court and bodied Amen Thompson before converting the and-one layup attempt.

The aggresive changes Atlanta made this offseason also produced some early results - Nickeil Alexander-Walker chipped in 13 points while playing great perimeter defense and Luke Kennard's shooting instantly translated to his first appearance for the Hawks. However, Kristaps Porzingis struggled to make an impact in his first stint as a Hawk. He finished with five points, 33% shooting from the field, missed all three of his attempts from the three-point line, and shot 25% from the free-throw line.

Porzingis also had an uncharacteristic amount of foul trouble against the Rockets and it'll be important for him to get back in rhythm against a Grizzlies team that is significantly less talented on defense. Neither Santi Aldama or Lawson Lovering are especially intimidating defenders, so it wouldn't be surprising if things look noticeably better for Porzingis in his second game.

While the offense shouldn't face much resistance from a Grizzlies team without Jaren Jackson Jr, their defense needs to be much better than what they showed against the Rockets. Neither Morant or Jackson will likely play, but Wells, Aldama and Cedric Coward all looked comfortable on offense for the Grizzlies. Even so, the Hawks do have an advantage in ball security. A key part of the Celtics blowing the Grizzlies out by 18 in their last preseason game was due to turnovers - Boston scored 34 points off of 22 Memphis turnovers. There aren't many duos that are better at forcing turnovers than Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If the Hawks can put pressure on the Grizzlies ball handlers, this game could quickly swing in Atlanta's favor.

Spread

The Hawks will be favorites on the road tonight, as they are currently 5-point favorites according to the latest odds from the Fanduel Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 237.

Final Score Predictions

I expect that the Hawks are going to be able to score pretty easily tonight. They did not shoot the ball very well against the Rockets, but Memphis doesn't have the same defensive personnel on paper. Jalen Johnson should take advantage of favorable matchups against Aldama and Coward. However, this may not be the strongest game for Trae Young as he'll likely draw a healthy amount of defensive coverage from Jaylen Wells. Even so, I'd expect the poor shooting numbers from Zaccharie Risacher and Kristaps Porzingis will start to even out in this game. If Atlanta can force the Grizzlies into turnovers and continue getting efficient offense from multiple sources, this should be a game that they win by a respectable margin.

Prediction: Hawks 125, Grizzlies 116

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