The Atlanta Hawks Are Now At Risk Of Falling Out of The Play-In Race

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The Atlanta Hawks have been stuck in the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference for what feels like all season, but their grip on that spot is starting to loosen. Despite Trae Young being out for at least four weeks, Atlanta went into their important two-game stretch against the Brooklyn Nets with a four-game lead for the last spot. If they beat Brooklyn in both games, they would have extended the lead to six games, and with the season heading into its final stretch, that might have been big enough to where Atlanta did not have to worry about.
Atlanta lost both games, however, and now their lead for the last play-in spot is down to two games. Not only that but the Nets hold the season series and tiebreaker over Atlanta now. Brooklyn was beginning to look like it had given up on this season, but these two wins over the Hawks give them a little bit of life and hope that they can catch Atlanta.
Young is still three weeks from being reevaluated and Onyeka Okongwu is a week away from being reevaluated, meaning the Hawks are not going to be fully healthy for most of the rest of the season. Atlanta is also entering a tough stretch of its schedule, going on the road to face the Knicks on Tuesday night and then traveling back home to Atlanta and facing the Cavaliers on Wednesday night. Now, the Knicks might be without Jalen Brunson on Tuesday, but Atlanta's offensive problems have made it to where the Knicks might now even need Brunson to win on Tuesday.
Per Tankathon, the Hawks have the 11th-hardest schedule remaining. Atlanta has two games left vs the Celtics (did you see them yesterday?), one vs Denver, one game vs Minnesota, one game vs the Clippers, and one game vs Milwaukee. The Hawks do have two games vs the Hornets, one vs the Pistons, two vs Portland, one vs Memphis, and one vs Utah. It should be noted though that the Hawks are 0-2 vs Charlotte this season and are responsible for being on the other end of the Hornet's biggest win of the season.
Brooklyn on the other hand has the fourth-easiest schedule remaining this season. They don't have to play the Celtics or any of the upper-tier teams in the Western Conference like the Nuggets, the Thunder, The Timberwolves, or the Clippers. They have a game vs Washington, two vs Detroit, one vs San Antonio, one vs Charlotte, one vs Memphis, and two vs Toronto. Brooklyn has the easier schedule and the tiebreaker now. According to ESPN's BPI, Atlanta has a 57% chance to make the play-in tournament and Brooklyn has a 41% chance.
This season has been a failure no matter how you look at if you're the Hawks (aside from a huge breakout season from Jalen Johnson). They did not want to be in the discussion to make the play-in tournament and wanted to be in the discussion for a top six or top four spot in the Eastern Conference. The question that needs to be asked now is if the Hawks are going to benefit more from missing the play-in tournament and giving themselves a better chance in the NBA Draft Lottery.
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Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell
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