ESPN Goes Against Odds For Miami Heat’s Upcoming Season Projection

One of the most remarkable aspects of the Miami Heat since 2020 has been their ability to consistently overachieve regardless of who’s on the roster. While the last two seasons have resulted in two lackluster first-round exits, they look to get back on track for next season.

Due to their successful offseason efforts to ensure improvement on the offensive end, ESPN analyst Tim Bontemps predicts the Heat will exceed their projected season total of 39 wins. A significant reason for this is that there won’t be any more disgruntled Jimmy Butler distractions plaguing the team for half of the season this time.

“Speaking of Butler, it might be a surprise to see his former team sitting here,” Bontemps said. “Amid Butler trade drama, Miami had an uninspiring 37-45 season last year, making a play-in tournament appearance as a 10th seed before being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. But Miami added Powell -- a 21.8 point-per-game scorer last season with the Clippers -- which should help the Heat's 21st-ranked offense. The Heat were also 14-28 in clutch games last season, the third-worst winning percentage in the NBA. That, plus a weakened East, leaves Miami as a strong bet to exceed their forecast.”

To regain contender status, the Heat need an internal improvement from their sophomore standouts, Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson, who are expected to have significantly increased roles from the start of the season.

TWO-TWO NBA CHAMPION BREAKS DOWN MISSING PIECE FOR MIAMI HEAT

Despite a very successful offseason, where their improvements may enable them to take advantage of a much weaker Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat are still a few roster pieces away from being true contenders.

On SiriusXM NBA Radio, Mario Chalmers explained why the Heat are still missing a true point guard. They have several players who can play the position, but they’re better off in other roles.

"Miami is at their best when they have a true point guard."

Former Heat guard Mario Chalmers on what the team is missing #HeatCulture @mchalmers15 | @TheFrankIsola | @Scalabrine pic.twitter.com/sUqSg8kzdb
— SiriusXM NBA Radio (@SiriusXMNBA) August 27, 2025

“I’ve always said this about Miami,” Chalmers said. “Miami’s at their best when they have a true point guard. I think that’s kind of what they’re missing right now. Tyler Herro can play the point, but he’s a better scorer, so you need him to score. Bam’s your defensive anchor that can score. Andrew Wiggins is a scorer. I like Davion Mitchell. I think he’s a perfect hard-nose defender and a person that can run the team. So I think they have a better chance with him at the rim.”

Chalmers goes on to explain why another significant piece they’re missing is a dominant center to play alongside Adebayo. Kel’el Ware potentially can reach this level, as he showed plenty of flashes in his rookie year. With the addition of Norman Powell and the emergence of Nikola Jovic, Ware should get more opportunities as a lob threat this season.

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