A projection of the Miami Heat to sit atop the East?

What is this, 2013?

The Miami Heat don't have Dwyane Wade on their roster. Nor LeBron James. Nor Chris Bosh. Nor even Jimmy Butler.

And yet, some computer simulations see considerable success ahead for them this season.

Miami, which was projected to win 37 to 39 games by most Las Vegas sports books prior to opening night, is now projected to win 53 by the widely-used website Basketball Reference. That's just ahead of the Detroit Pistons (52.9), even though the Pistons currently lead the conference in winning percentage behind emerging star Cade Cunningham.

The @bball_ref Playoff Probabilities Report has the Miami Heat as the No. 1 seed in their Projected Standings pic.twitter.com/OlrNuiIlkS
— Dru (@dru_star) November 22, 2025

Why? It's mostly due to the Heat's challenging strength of schedule so far, which has included almost exclusively 2024-25 playoff qualifiers. The Heat have yet to play a single game against many of the league's lesser lights, such as Brooklyn, Utah, New Orleans and Washington. Those games are all ahead. This projection is based on 10,000 simulations for the remainder of the season.

Also, with Tyler Herro returning as early as Monday, the Heat are about to get an infusion of proven talent that other teams aren't waiting on. Herro wil add more punch to an offense that is scoring more points per game than any other, partly due to pace but also with an efficiency that wasn't expected. That's been due to stellar acquisition Norman Powell but also to the team's depth, with 11 players contributing regularly -- even if the team would like a little more from Nikola Jovic.

So if the simulation holds, the Heat wouldn't be facing the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in, as they have in recent years. They'd be facing the eighth-seeded Hawks in the first round, as the top seed, a seed Miami hasn't held since 2021-22, when Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker were on the roster. The Heat advanced to the East finals, but lost on the last play to Boston, when a Jimmy Butler three-point attempt fell short. The next spring, they did go to the NBA Finals, losing in five games to the Denver Nuggets. It had been downhill since, but not anymore.

Butler is gone, but the joy is back. And the Heat -- who resume their season Sunday in Philadelphia -- are somehow formidable again, at least in the coding of a computer.

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