Pelle Larsson’s Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have made another commitment to one of their young role players. This time it is their Swiss-Army Knife Pelle Larsson who just recently signed a 4-year deal worth up to $60-million dollars. The deal comes one year after the Miami Heat gave young forward Nikola Jovic and extension of its own. One that the Heat still are unsure of whether it was a good idea.

But Larsson provides something that Jovic doesn't, in the sense that he is the kind of Championship player we see on every roster across the National Basketball Association, and simply put, he is a winning player.

So after another strong Summer, and a payday for Larsson, what are the best and worst case scenarios for Larsson.

Pelle Larsson, the (not so) hidden weapon of the Miami Heat...

Nasty 2P scorer/dunker. Elite free throw rate. Excellent athlete. Agile & strong screen navigator. Slick low-man paint helper. Can pass the rock. Primed to make a Giannis-ecosystem leap. pic.twitter.com/tqOuPcJihN
— Basketball University (@UofBasketball) August 31, 2026

Best Case: Sixth Man of The Year Campaign

Listen, this is not out of the realm of possibilities for Larsson this season. Larsson will be in the Miami Heat's closing lineup; he won't be starting ahead of Klay Thompson --who I presume they start-- and he has a strong opportunity to anchor Miami's bench. With the lack of creators and ball handlers on the Miami Heat's roster, Larsson will have an opportunity to utilize his downhill prowess to get to the free throw line, finish through contact, and open up the floor for the Miami Heat.

Last year, Larsson averaged 11.4/3.5/3.4 in 26 minutes a night, when he was given extended minutes (30-39) he averaged 14.8/4.8/4.0. Should Larsson take a leap from beyond the arc, something that seems quite possible after his Summer, his minutes on the floor that he shares with Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Miami Heat shooters will give him open looks, shooting 35+ percent from beyond the arc should be a goal for him, and it is within reach.

Larsson is destined for a strong year, now he just has to prove it on the floor.

Worst Case: Nikola Jovic Like Regression

Larsson Jovi — Nov 2, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic (5) looks to the sidelines with guard Pelle Larsson (9) and guard Davion Mitchell (45) against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While Larsson's play style doesn't necessarily call for a regression like this, it has to be addressed in Miami. Jovic went from the hot topic of discussion for his strong Summer's Internationally and his point-forward style of play, to not even being an option for the Miami Heat; after he was paid.

In Denver, Christian Braun had the same kind of fall off after getting paid, he was a playoff no-show, dealt with injuries, and completely regressed from beyond the arc.

The worst case scenario is simply Miami not receiving the impact player that they paid for.

With a possible regression addressed, I don't believe it is realistic for Larsson this season. Larsson is primed to take a leap in Miami alongside Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Should Larsson anchor the Miami Heat's bench, this signing will be looked at as a steal across the entire NBA, and Miami should be proud of the extension.

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