Cooper Flagg is Unfairly Stealing ROY from Kon Knueppel But It Might Not Matter

Barring a massive turnaround in the final three games, Kon Knueppel has likely lost the Rookie of the Year race. After holding a lead for a long time, a late surge by Cooper Flagg has totally flipped the odds and leaves Knueppel on the outside looking in.

Flagg has scored an unfathomable 96 points in the last two games for the Dallas Mavericks. Meanwhile, Knueppel is slumping for the Charlotte Hornets. In the last six games, Knueppel is averaging 13.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.

He's also shooting a paltry 38% from the field and 30.8% from three. It's a definite cold streak, although Knueppel still has two 20-point scoring days on good efficiency sprinkled in there.

But combine that mostly rough stretch for the Hornets guard with an electric run by Flagg (29.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in his last six), and the odds have flipped. With so little time remaining, it's hard to see Knueppel getting up off the mat.

Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel (7) shoots over Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Flagg is now -210 on FanDuel, and Knueppel is +150. It's not a wide margin, but it is wide enough to call it with just a few games left. The award was always Flagg's to lose, which is unfair, and Knueppel couldn't keep up his elite play for long enough.

This likely doesn't bother Knueppel, who is probably more concerned with winning games. Despite the rough performance in the last six from Knueppel, the Hornets are 4-2 in those games. Knueppel is +31 over that span, while Flagg is -56.

Knueppel is a team player who wants to guide his team to wins. Flagg probably is, too, but at this stage, he's a one-man show for the Mavericks. His development is all that matters, so everything's going through him lately. It's not the same for the competitive Hornets.

For a long time, winning has mattered to awards, though it probably shouldn't have. This year, though, it seems like the discourse is changing. The Hornets are really good thanks to Knueppel, while the Flagg-led Mavericks are a basement-dweller.

That should never have mattered, but it's curious that it finally becomes an irrelevant part of the discussion when it's a Hornets player up for an award. And while it won't keep Knueppel up at night, it doesn't sit right with me.

Flagg's counting stats and averages are generally higher than Knueppel's, but that's more down to the usage rates and the role on the team. Flagg's usage is 4.3% higher than Knueppel's, which helps explain the higher averages. Flagg also plays two more minutes per game, which seems small, but it adds up over a season.

But going deeper into the analytics, the edge should belong to Knueppel. Here's how each player profiles:

Knueppel
119.4 offensive rating
112.9 defensive rating
6.5 net rating
64% true shooting
11.7 Player Impact Estimate
17.56 PER
8.3 Estimated Wins Added
247.6 Value Added
128.7 Points per Shot Attempt
+3.9 on/off splits for Hornets
Flagg
108.7 offensive rating
114.7 defensive rating
-6.0 net rating
55% true shooting
12.6 Player Impact Estimate
17.68 PER
7.5 Estimated Wins Added
225.6 Value Added
110.8 Points per Shot Attempt
0.0 on/off splits for Mavericks

In everything except PIE and PER, Knueppel has better stats. Even in those two categories, Knueppel is not far behind. The advanced metrics favor Knueppel, while the traditional metrics lean to Flagg.

In a sport that is seemingly moving towards the analytics and data-driven decisions, it's surprising that Flagg remains the favorite. It's terribly unfortunate, but the Hornets and Knueppel have bigger fish to fry.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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