Projecting the Charlotte Hornets' Sophomores: Who Will Emerge Behind Kon Knueppel?

During the 2025 NBA Draft, the Charlotte Hornets walked away with four players, two coming in the first round, two in the second round.

With their two first round selections, they took Duke's Kon Knueppel fourth overall, and made a trade with the Phoenix Suns to acquire the draft rights to UConn's Liam McNeeley. In the second round, at pick 33 they selected another Blue Devil in Sion James, and at 34 took Creighton big man Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Just a year later, and the draft looks like a wide success for the Hornets. Knueppel ended up coming second in Rookie of the Year voting, and put together perhaps the greatest rookie shooting season ever. McNeeley spent the majority of his time in the G-League, but played a pivotal role in the Greensboro Swarm's eventual G-League title. As for James and Kalkbrenner, the two were key role players for the Hornets as they nearly pushed their way into the playoffs for the first time in a decade.

With Knueppel's stellar rookie season, and an improving role headed into year two, it's all but certain that he will continue to look like the best player from that Hornets' draft class. That being said, it is unclear as to who will wind up as the second best, with all three putting together a valid case.

The easiest way to predict who may have the best sophomore season of the three may simply be just looking at who was the best as a rookie. Though, that does not necessarily account for development, role, or opportunity. James, Kalkbrenner, and McNeeley each enter their second season with different profiles, which turns this question less into who had the best rookie season, and more about who can turn that performance into a productive sophomore campaign.

In doing so, I created a predictive model that would help me to best understand who could put together the best sophomore season. In doing so, I considered four different aspects: current ability, development, opportunity, and confidence.

Current Ability

The first, and what I deemed to be the most important, component of the model is current ability. This accounts for 40 percent of the final projection of each player, with the goal to measure how much each player actually impacted winning during their rookie season, instead of just looking at traditional counting stats.

In doing so, I primarily used three impact metrics: DPM, TimeDecayRAPM, and 1YRAPM. Each of these metrics attempt to measure the impact a player has in a different way, which allows a better, more complete picture on how effective each player is beyond just their points, rebounds, and assists.

As each of these metrics and the coming statistics are presented differently, I convered their league-wide rankings into percentiles before putting them into this model. This can allow a player's league-ranking to be compared directly with a statistic that is expressed as a percentile.

This part of the model is weighted most heavily as the opportunity and development a player can receive will only take them so far. That being said, it does not determine the entire prediction. The age, development throughout their rookie season, and expected role/reliability of the sample all give a meaningful impact on how likely the performance is to carry on to year two.

Development

Development accounts for 25 percent of the projection.

I used factors for development such as age, progression in DPM throughout the season, shooting, usage, playmaking, and at times production outside of the NBA. The goal here is not just to identify who improved the most during their rookie season, but to try and determine who showed signs that what they are currently producing is not representative of their ceiling.

Opportunity

Like development, Opportunity also accounts for 25 percent of the model. The projected minutes for a player, their position on the depth-chart, and expected role/competition all will play a major role in determening how much value one can actually produce over the course of a season.

This is important for the Hornets sophomores, where James and Kalkbrenner are projected to receive around 16 minutes a night, while McNeeley sits at just six. Though McNeeley may have the most upside of the group, his limited playing time makes it more difficult to turn that ceiling into a productive second season.

Confidence

If you've calculated up until now, there is just 10 percent left.

This final number goes into confidence, which accounts for the reliability of the data behind each player's projection, including minutes at the NBA level, sample size, consistency across impact metrics, and if their shooting/efficiency numbers stay consistent.

This category is of most importance when evaluating Liam McNeeley, where his 368 minutes played as a rookie provide less evidence than the 1,843 minutes that Sion James played.

With the framework behind the model established, the question now becomes which sophomore has the strongest combination of these four factors. The answer? Well, it's not simply the player who produced the most as a rookie.

1. Sion James

Mar 24, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard Sion James (4) brings the ball up court against the Sacramento Kings during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of these three sophomores, Sion James does not necessarily have the highest ceiling. Though, he has the strongest combination of proven impact, defensive value, and opportunity. He enters his sophomore season as the favorite to have the most productive campaign.

What appeared to me as the most interesting part of his rookie season is a clear disconnect between his impact metrics. He ranks 369th in DPM, which stands out as extremely worrisome, but the results in the other impact metrics help give us a better understanding. In TimeDecayRAPM, James finished 49th in the league, while ranking 29th in the defensive component of the metric.

To me, this suggests that his overall value may not be captured by his traditional production. His strength lies in his defense, where he ranked in the 98th percentile amongst guards in points at the rim saved, and in the 91st percentile in foul rate.

The sample size here also gives Sion an advantage headed forward. He played 1,843 minutes as a rookie, and did not miss a single game for the Hornets during the season. While this does not guarantee that James will improve, it gives me more confidence that the underlying strengths he has are real.

Let's talk about the offensive side of the ball, though.

Sion's 11.2% usage rate was expected to rise this season with a lack of ball-handlers on the Hornets roster, until the team acquired veteran Dennis Schröder. With his usage percentage likely to stay the same, and a -4.7 relative true shooting percentage, it suggests that James was not effective on the offensive side of the floor.

His 35.2% three-point number gives some optimism, but to take a meaningful leap in overall value he will need to become a more neutral offensive player.

The encouraging part, however, is that Sion does not need to just become a high-volume scorer.

He has a defensive profile that already gives him an ability to contribute without the ball in his hands. If he can slightly improve his shooter, improve his decision making offensively, and reduce the negative impact of his offensive possessions, even a slight offensive improvement could raise his overall impact substantially.

Sion will receive plenty of opportunity this season, which is another reason he comes out the victor. He is projected to play around 16 minutes per game next season, which allows him more room to turn his impact into true production.

Ultimately, he ranks first as he has the strongest combination of what this model is designed to measure. He has the substantial NBA sample, a strong defensive impact that is supported by multiple metrics, has shown enough shooting ability to provide some offensive upside, and Head Coach Charles Lee looks positioned to give him a more meaningful role.

While he is not necessarily the player with the highest ceiling, he is the player that has the strongest combination of everything needed for his sophomore season. For a projection that is focused specifically on the 2026-27 season, this makes him the safest bet to emerge as the second best sophomore for the Hornets.

2. Ryan Kalkbrenner

Mar 31, 2026; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Charlotte Hornets center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) controls the ball against Brooklyn Nets forward E.J. Liddell (9) during the fourth quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of the three, Ryan Kalkbrenner produces easily the most confusing statistical profile. While his rookie season produced some of the strongest efficiency and defensive numbers in the enitre NBA, his impact metrics are far less convincing than the ones Sion James produced, making his projection much more difficult to evaluate.

Kalkbrenner finished as the 106th best player in the NBA in DPM, a number that placed him hundreds of spots in front of Sion James and Liam McNeeley. His defensive side of that metric was even stronger, where he ranked 73rd amongst NBA players. Despite that, his other impact metrics tell a much different story, where he ranks 300th in TimeDecayRAPM, and 500th in 1YRAPM.

This does not erase the evidence of how effective Kalkbrenner was during his rookie season. He ranked in the 86th percentile amongst centers in blocks, was in the 91st ercentile in offensive rebounding, and the 87th percentile in RimPtsSaved.

On the offensive side of the ball, he was in the 99th percentile of relative true shooting percentage, and a 76.7 percent field-goal percentage at the rim showed just how strong and efficeint that Kalkbrenner is as a finisher.

As the season went on, Kalkbrenner was starting to become a more impactful player as his rookie season progressed. His DPM improved from a -2.2 in October to a +0.6 in April, which suggests that his overall impact was headed in the right direction as he became more comfortable in the league.

That being said, Kalkbrenner's biggest issue is his opportunity.

After coming out the gates as the starting center for the Hornets, Kalkbrenner quickly lost his job to fan-favorite Moussa Diabate. With Kalkbrenner being just a few days older than Diabate, it's unlikely to see a dramatic change at the center position with the ever-evolving Diabate.

Kalkbrenner is projected roughly 16 minutes per game behind the Moose, and there are only so many opportunites available for his talents to translate into counting stat production. Ultimately, this keeps him behind James in the projection, though he could end up as the most efficient player of the three and could even outperform this ranking if his late-season improvement continues.

The sophomore projection for Kalkbrenner ultimately comes down to one question: was his strong rookie production just the beginning of a larger impact? Or was it the product of an efficient role player operating in limited minutes?

3. Liam McNeeley

Jan 28, 2026; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard Liam McNeeley (33) holds the ball at the top of the key in the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Smith-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The only first-round pick of the three, Liam McNeeley may be the most difficult to project. With the most intriguing developmental upside of the group, McNeeley produced a rookie season that provided me with the least amount of NBA evidence to work with. While he has fascinating upside in the long-term, he is a difficult player to project as Charlotte's most productive sophomore behind Kon Knueppel in 2026-27.

During his rookie season, McNeeley received just a fraction of the workload that was given to Sion James, where he played just 368 minutes. His advanced metrics clearly reflect that role, where he ranks 380th in DPM, 291st in TimeDecayRAPM, and 307th in 1YRAPM.

Looking at just his NBA production would miss likely the most important part of his rookie season.

McNeeley spent the vast majority of his rookie season in the G League, where he played a pivotal role in helping the Greensboro Swarm win their first G League Championship. In Greensboro, Liam averaged 19.6 points per game, while putting up a 23.1% usage rate, a 64.7% true shooting number, a 14% assist rate, and an 11.7% turnover rate. These numbers show that there could be a significant amount of more offensive ability in his game than that number allowed him to show.

This is why McNeeley is the biggest upside play of the three. His limited NBA role does not just mean he lacks the ability to contribute, rather that Charlotte was not in a position to give him much responsibility as a rookie.

A situation that may not change much headed into year two.

Charlotte added several veteran wings over the course of the offseason, including Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, and Dorian Finney-Smith. McNeeley's current minutes projection is only around six, and there may not be enough playing time available for any improvement to translate into the production that is needed to surpass James or Kalkbrenner.

This is ultimately why McNeeley falls to third in this projection. While he may take the largest developmental leap, this is different than being the player most likely to have the best sophomore season. Therefore, this is not a bet against his talent, rather a bet against opportunity.

Final Ranking

While the data ultimately points to Sion James, it is not simply because he was the best of these three sophomores as a rookie. Sion's case is built on a multitude of factors that should help translation into a strong secnd season, including his NBA sample size, strong defensive metrics, room for offensive improvement, and a likely opportunity to play.

Ryan Kalkbrenner has the best case to challenge him. Both are still coming off the bench, but Kalkbrenner's elite efficiency, rebounding, and rim protection will give huim one of the strongest profiles of the three, and an improvement over the course of the season gives reason to believe that there will be more to come. That being said, his impact metrics and likely limited role with Moussa Diabate, Naz Reid, and Hannes Steinbach make him a slightly less convincing projection.

Finally, there is the wild card in Liam McNeeley. He put up underwhelming NBA numbers, but his G League and Summer League production suggests that he has a level of offensive responsibility that he has not been given the chance to show in Charlotte. While he could develop into the best of the three, his projected role makes that unlikely to happen this season.

For now, Sion James is the best bet to come out of the 2026-27 season looking like the second-best player from Charlotte's 2025 draft class.

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