Jazz's Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade Could Look Smarter After NBA Lottery Changes

The NBA is bound to make changes to the draft lottery this summer.

After a season where about a third of the league––including the Utah Jazz––found themselves in a race to the bottom in the final weeks of the season and leading to fundamental questions about competitive integrity, the NBA has been developing a lottery reform that'll take place as soon as next year.

As of now, the "3-2-1" system is the frontrunner for any reform to go down. The bottom three teams will have worse odds than those between four and 10, and equal to teams sitting in the 9th and 10th seeds in each conference.

Shams: NBA has disclosed a new anti-tanking reform.

"3-2-1 lottery" details:

- Expands the draft lottery to 16 teams
- Includes "relegation zone" where bottom 3 teams are penalized with fewer lottery balls for No. 1 pick
- Teams that don't qualify for Playoffs/Play-In but stay…
— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) April 28, 2026

The main goal of the changes is to de-incentivize tanking and have teams remain competitive from start to finish of the regular season.

But in the fine print of that system, there's one slight wrinkle that could affect the Jazz, and perhaps their deal from this past trade deadline involving Jaren Jackson Jr.

How Jazz Could Be Impacted By New Lottery System

According to Yahoo Sports' Kevin O'Connor, one piece of the NBA's "3-2-1" lottery reform includes that a team cannot land a top-five pick in three consecutive years, which is counted retroactively dating back to the 2025 draft.

That, of course, would affect the Jazz.

They just got their hands on the second-overall pick in this year's draft and got the fifth pick in 2025 to select Ace Bailey. If this reform passes, then Utah would be ineligible to land a top-five pick with their own selection in 2027.

Jun 25, 2025; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Ace Bailey looks on after being selected as the fifth pick by the Utah in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

There's one big problem with that, though: the Jazz don't own their first-round pick next year. The Memphis Grizzlies do, in the form of a swap best between Utah, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

So, if the Jazz were to finish last in the standings between those three teams and had a bid within one of the 16 lottery teams, it would be the Grizzlies who are impacted by the lottery reform. Not Utah.

How the Changes Affect the Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade

There are clear flaws with that system if the NBA were to see the changes pass.

For teams like the Grizzlies, they might not be one to pass that vote for this very reason. They're effectively being retroactively punished for a trade they made with a different ruleset in place at the time, and would lose out on a ton of upside with a premier returning asset in that deal.

However, if the ruling does advance into next year's lottery, it tends to make the Jazz's decision to dish their first-round pick away and cash in on an All-Star like Jackson Jr., just a little bit better than things already looked after their lottery jump.

Feb 9, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Utah Jazz forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (20) reacts against the Miami Heat during the first quarter at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Had the Jazz waited to make their move for Jackson Jr. this summer, and those lottery changes were in place to where Utah wouldn't be able to get a top-five pick, the Grizzlies might not have made that trade in the first place.

Now, that deal is done, and it's up to the league to determine how Utah's first-round pick in 2027 can be fairly judged.

It's a slippery slope, and nearly impossible to find a perfect answer on how to approach a true fix to the lottery and any standings manipulations to come with it. Yet, the ripple effects from preventing three straight top-five picks would be significant for reasons like this.

Bottom Line

A lot still has to be sorted out in those discussions between both the league and owners to officially decide what the next steps are to restore competition in the bottom half of the league. The vote for what those changes might be arrives on May 28th.

In reality, there's a good chance that this top-five pick rule sees a few tweaks. The rationale, while with a good big-picture mindset in place, doesn't make a whole lot of sense towards fixing the problem when situations like this arise.

But if this were to be the official outcome, the Jazz are almost walking away with a get-out-of-jail-free card. So they probably won't be complaining much behind the scenes.

Be sure to follow Utah Jazz On SI on X for daily Utah Jazz news, rumors and analysis!

Add us as a preferred source on Google