What the Jazz's Draft Pick Projections Mean Heading Into NBA Lottery

The Utah Jazz are just days away from discovering their fate in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery, which they've eagerly awaited for the last several months, hoping to strike gold on a top pick to land one of this year's premier incoming prospects.

They're projected top-five odds at the number one pick for a second straight year, yet head into another lottery in which the franchise has still never seen their own selection move up the board, or ever land the number one pick.

Maybe this year could be different. And based on the class of incoming prospects set to be at the top of the board, that lottery luck could not come at a better time than right about now.

Let's take a dive into what the outlook is for the Jazz and their draft pick later this weekend:

Tied With Kings for 4th-Best Odds for No. 1

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A person watches the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

In terms of the Jazz's odds to secure the top pick, those sit at an 11.5% chance of transpiring, the same number the Sacramento Kings have for their own chances of shooting up the board.

Utah does have the tiebreaker edge over Sacramento that at least secures them a top eight pick. But their odds for the top four spots are the exact same; an overall 45.1% chance to stay within that range.

6th Pick Remains Most Likely Outcome

Feb 20, 2026; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy reacts during the third quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

In terms of the Jazz's most likely outcome to become a reality, it's to fall a couple of spots down from pick four to the sixth spot, which has a 27.1% chance.

While dropping a couple of spots in the lottery is never an ideal result––as the Jazz would know from their last two years of trying for a top spot––the silver lining is that falling to sixth is a more likely outcome than landing at either pick seven or eight combined.

It's also a slightly more favorable of an outcome for the Jazz to stay within the top five picks than it is to drop from picks six to eight.

Jazz Will Keep Their Pick, No Matter What

Apr 4, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge watches warms ups before a game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

But the most notable aspect that the Jazz will be delighted to see surrounding their pick on lottery day will be the fact that their top-eight protected pick with the OKC Thunder has zero chance of landing with the reigning champions.

Had Utah finished in the fifth spot in the lottery, or lost last month's coin flip to the Kings, the Thunder would have a slim 0.6% chance to see that selection drop to the ninth spot on the board, and thus leave the Jazz without a first rounder to use.

Instead, the Jazz found their way to the bottom of the NBA standings, got lucky against Sacramento to land with the fourth-best spot, and could be just the edge they need to make a historic jump up the board for what would be their first time in franchise history.

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will get rolling at 1 p.m. MT on Sunday, May 10th, thus ending the Jazz's long wait and cementing a bit more of what their offseason might look like once the draft arrives in June.

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