Jazz NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Can Utah Get the No. 1 Pick?

The Utah Jazz are right on the cusp of the long-awaited draft lottery. Here's what their odds look like.

Jan 30, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz Owner Ryan Smith (left) and CEO of basketball operations Danny Ainge (middle) along with president of basketball operations Austin Ainge watch warm ups before a game against the Brooklyn Nets at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The Utah Jazz are just days away from discovering their fate in this year's long-awaited NBA draft lottery, coming fresh off a long regular season of losses, putting them in a solid position to get lucky at the league's drawing in Chicago.

It's the fourth-straight year the Jazz have found themselves in the lottery mix, yet haven't gotten too fortunate in their results thus far.

Utah dropped two spots from No. 8 to 10 in 2024, dropped from No. 1 to 5 in 2025, and now hope to flip the script in 2026 for what might be the most loaded class of prospects they've been faced with in their rebuild thus far.

Let's take a look at the odds they'll be working with headed into this weekend.

Utah Jazz Lottery Odds

Here's what the Jazz's chances look like to receive each pick from slots one through eight:

1st Pick: 11.5%

2nd Pick: 11.4%

3rd Pick: 11.2%

4th Pick: 11%

5th Pick: 7.5%

6th Pick: 27.1%

7th Pick: 17.9%

8th Pick: 2.4%

The most important factor to note about the Jazz's potential draft lottery outcome is that, after a long season of worrying about their top-eight protected pick with the OKC Thunder, they have 100% odds to keep their selection, no matter where it lands on Sunday afternoon.

Had the Jazz fallen to the fifth slot in the lottery after the regular season and coin flip tiebreaker with the Sacramento Kings, there would've been a slim, less than one percent chance that the Thunder lucked out to secure Utah's first-rounder. Instead, that pick is certain to remain with the Jazz.

The Jazz have a 45.1% chance to stay within the top four slots, which is good news. But of any pick on the board that has the biggest probability of landing with Utah, it's No. 6, with over a 25% chance of transpiring.

Chance to Get the No. 1 Pick: 11.5%

The Jazz do have some steady odds to claim the top pick in the draft, though, which is tied with the Kings at 11.5%.

In terms of Utah's history in the lottery throughout their time as a franchise, they've never been fortunate enough to move up into the top slot, or even see their own first-round pick move up the board from their projected position at all.

The only time the Jazz tasted a bit of luck in the draft came back in 2011, when the then-New Jersey Nets' first round pick was with Utah due to the Deron Williams trade, and moved up to the third slot to take Enes Kanter.

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A fan walks by a sign during the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

This year, the Jazz will be hoping for some franchise-first fortune in the lottery, and in turn, land what could be another massively impactful building block to roll into the future with.

The NBA Draft Lottery will take place in Chicago at 1 p.m. MT, ending the Jazz's long wait to finally see where they'll be selecting on the board later this June.

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