The Magic Insider

Paolo Banchero's Magic must stifle Scottie Barnes to beat Raptors

Orlando needs to build a wall and force Barnes into being a jump shooter
Mar 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) drives to the basket against Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) during the first quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images
Mar 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) drives to the basket against Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) during the first quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Orlando is coming off one of the best wins of its season, taking down the best offense in the NBA in Nikola Jokić's Denver Nuggets after a career-outing from Anthony Black.

The Raptors are on the second night of a back to back, also coming off a highlight win beating Steph Curry's Warriors, led by Scottie Barnes incredible two-way performance:

Barnes dropped 23 PTS – 25 REB – 10 AST  – 3 STL – 1 BLK, while shooting 65% from the field.

Scottie B. likes to remind everyone how he’s already one of the most powerful two-way north-south forces in the league despite being just 24 years old.

How will Orlando contain Barnes to get the win in Toronto tonight?

1. Lead the way, Anthony Black

Black shoots
Mar 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black (0) warms up before the game against the Toronto Raptors at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images


Anthony Black has been on an absolute tear as of late, averaging 24 ppg – 5 rpg - 4 apg/2tov - 1 stl shooting 49% 3P% on 6 3PA per game over his last six outings.

AB is coming of the best game of his career, scoring 38 PTS and splashing 7 threes all while providing primary defense on Denver’s All-Star guard, Jamal Murray.

With Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs expected to be out of the lineup, AB has plenty of opportunity and touches to keep the good times rolling.

Black does a lot of his damage launching threes from the corners as a 40% corner 3pt shooter.

Orlando running the offense through Banchero and Bane to draw multiple defenders, leaving AB open on the opposite corner, is a great way to keep creating those open looks until the defense learns they have to respect Black off-the-ball nearly as much as Orlando's stars on the ball.

Anthony Black has also improved his on-ball confidence as a driver this season, getting downhill at will, especially off handouts from strong screeners like Wendell Carter Jr., allowing AB to attack gaps, hit the roll man, kick out to shooters, draw fouls and finish at the rim.

After the Denver game, AB discussed his corner threes and how teams have to defend Orlando, saying, "It’s tough to guard everybody, like I always say, we got a lot of good players on the court, so it’s kind of pick-your-poison.”

2. Advantages in four factors?

Mosley coaches
Mar 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley motions to the court during the second half against the Toronto Raptors at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images


Orlando's 15th-ranked offense faces Toronto's 6th-ranked defense.

The Raptors defense does a good job of forcing tough shots (11th) and a great job of forcing turnovers. (4th)

The Magic's offense struggles to shoot effectively (23rd), but has improved throughout the year in turnovers, now rating 7th overall at playing safe with the ball.

Now the 2nd-best team in the league at drawing fouls, Orlando has an edge to exploit, as Toronto is the 8th-worst team at defending without fouling.

The Magic's defense has another advantage in securing rebounds (4th) and defending without fouling (18th); Toronto rates in the middle of the pack in offensive rebounds (14th) and bottom-5 at drawing fouls (26th)

Orlando winning the free throw margin, the defensive rebound margin, and loading up the paint to deter Barnes' drives, all while playing smart defense without fouling, are keys to victory in Toronto.

3. Build a wall, force Barnes to beat you with the jumpshot

Banchero and Black defend Barnes
Mar 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) defends Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) during the second quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images


Orlando must build a wall to keep Scottie Barnes out of the paint while bringing quick transition defense to contain the Raptors' fast breaks.

Scottie Barnes is a destructive two wave force able to get downhill at will against basically any team.

Barnes wreaks havoc defensively, pushes the pace, attacks the rack.

He gets north south and vertical with the best of them, constantly exploding for exciting finishes at the rim, and also a savvy playmaker with incredible two-way feel.

For now, Barnes' perimeter jump shot is still the weakest part of his game, so deterring his drives and forcing him to shoot from outside is key, taking away what Toronto wants to do first.


Published
Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK