Will Paolo Banchero cash in for his MVP believers?

Paolo Banchero is a star on the rise, and at only age 22, was one of five players to average 25 points, seven rebounds and four assists in 2024-25. He will sooner or later join the crème de la crème of NBA ballers, but it will take a deep playoff trip where he dominates as the guy, or he will need to be a serious candidate for the MVP crown in the regular season.

FanDuel has him as a long shot to win the award in 2025-26 at +10,000. DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook are paying him more respect at +7,000 and +4,000, but is this fair?

He is talented enough to win someday, yet would need a massive leap in production because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, averages seven extra points per game on a significantly higher effective field goal percentage (6.9), and Nikola Jokić, the runner-up, puts up a triple-double as a center.

Paolo Banchero Been In The Gym All Summer

Coming back from oblique injury, he still managed to end the season averaging 29/8/4 on 58% TS

Year 4 Could Produce All-NBA/MVP Convos pic.twitter.com/aFyAA7HlEa
— Huncho Hoops (@HunchoHoops) August 7, 2025

It seems there’s a fine line between how good a team can be and having an MVP. It’s gone to players on super teams in the past, such as Wilt Chamberlain (1967) Larry Bird (1986), and LeBron James (2013), to name some, but this isn’t the norm. If the Oklahoma City Thunder, now having championship swag and some more talent, leap into that stratosphere, it could hurt SGA’s case to repeat.

The Denver Nuggets upgraded in the offseason and will presumably win enough games again for Jokić to be in the race. But voter fatigue happens and it may have last year to a degree. It’s hard to understand how Jokić, who affects the game in more ways, doesn’t win.

Health/attendance is a factor in this race, too, as players can only miss a maximum of 17 games before being disqualified. Aside from an oblique injury that caused 34 consecutive missed games, Banchero is durable. Also, never forget how Kevin Durant won in 2014 when Russell Westbrook missed 36 games, or how Jokić won in 2022 when Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were unavailable all but nine games. The winners in those years got serious love from the electorate because it's much harder to win without your second or third-best teammate, as opponents can load up on option one.

In Banchero’s case, he has the size and strength of a big man with the skills of a guard. Forget the numbers; his impact is felt in the way he is guarded as the primary weapon rivals try to neutralize. Only players of this caliber get nominated.

Caesars’ odds seem the most appropriate because most of the players above him, like Jokić (+225), SGA (+250), Luka Dončić (+350), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1,000), Anthony Edwards (+2200) and Jalen Brunson (+5000) have thicker NBA résumés and are at the top of their games. Banchero would likely need to keep the Magic as a top-three East team and raise his points per game and accuracy a bit. But the biggest jump he can make to have a better chance to win is in his playmaking for teammates. The ultimate skill is making your teammates better. It’s reasonable that it happens in 2025-26 because of the extra 3-point weapons around him (Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones) and how he will create separation for them.

While Banchero’s odds might be an eye sore to Magic supporters, it never hurts to take a flyer on a number perceived to be disrespectful odds.

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