NBA MVP Watch: Where the Race Stands After the All-Star Break

MVP candidates are on the verge of making closing arguments now that the NBA’s All-Star break is in the rearview mirror.

With about 30 games remaining for each team, we know who will be in the conversation and who’s leading the charge—do Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić sound familiar, anyone? We’d be remiss to look past the league’s brightest stars who aren’t perennial MVP candidates.

At the break, Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t leading the NBA in scoring, although he’s darn close, and elsewhere, some of the league’s young stars have broken through to become bona fide superstars. Teams led by this new generation of top players have taken leaps to become true title contenders over the first chunk of the season. Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs just might have the Thunder’s number and the Pistons are well in front of the rest of the Eastern Conference behind Cade Cunningham.

Heading into the final stretch of the NBA’s regular season after the All-Star break is as good a time as ever to check in on the MVP race. Here’s a look at the top five NBA MVP candidates in order, as well as a pulse check with how each candidate holds up against the league’s eligibility requirement for postseason awards:

5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

40 games played, 24.4 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg, 51.1 FG%, 36.3 3P%, 81 FT%

Believe it or not, the Spurs are within striking distance of the Thunder, just three games behind Oklahoma City at the All-Star break. That’s not the case without French phenom Victor Wembanyama, who’s been one of the NBA’s best players since the calendar flipped to 2026.

He’s coming off a 40-point performance (37 of which came in the first half) in a road win over the Lakers just ahead of the break as San Antonio entered All-Star weekend on a six-game heater. Where Wemby’s MVP case falters is in the NBA’s 65-game requirement for postseason honors. He missed 12 games early in the season with a left calf strain and another two contests in early January due to a hyperextended knee. The missed time doesn’t leave much wiggle room the rest of the way, but he’s a near lock to lead the league in blocks per game this year while scoring close to 25 points a night for the team that may have the best shot to dethrone the Thunder. Wemby’s Spurs have already beaten Oklahoma City four times in five tries.

4. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers

42 games played, 32.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 8.6 apg, 47.3 FG%, 34.5 FG%, 78.1 FT%

In his first full season as a Laker, Dončić is leading the NBA with 32.8 points per game. Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander are the only players in the league averaging 30 or more points a night. Last season, just Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo eclipsed that mark.

What may hold Dončić back in MVP talks is how the Lakers finish the rest of the season. Currently, he’s not putting up anything close to empty numbers. Los Angeles is 33–21 and fifth place in the stacked Western Conference. With just under 30 games left, Dončić can realistically remain ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander for this season’s scoring title. If that comes to fruition, first team All-NBA honors have to be the bare minimum for the season he’s had as long as he meets the league’s dreaded games played requirement.

3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

47 games played, 25.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 9.6 apg, 46.2 FG%, 33 3P%, 80.8 FT%

Cunningham deserves more praise in MVP conversations as the Pistons sit far ahead of their competition in the Eastern Conference. It’s difficult to get in the same realm and eventually topple the powerhouses in Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander, but Cunningham has the best MVP case besides those two.

The most clear path for Cunningham to butt into the two-man MVP race is to score more. That’s not necessarily always his game, averaging the most assists in the NBA besides Jokić, but Cunningham’s late-game takeovers are a large part of Detroit’s 40 wins prior to the All-Star break. If he hits his three-pointers at a higher clip, he could add to his scoring numbers and have an even better case—especially if Jokić becomes ineligible for postseason honors. Whether that happens or not, the best player on the best team in the East is a true MVP candidate, especially when you consider the Pistons won only 14 games two seasons ago.

Mannix: From 14 Wins to NBA Title Contender: How the Pistons Found Their Identity

2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

39 games played, 28.7 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 10.7 apg, 59 FG%, 42 3P%, 84 FT%

The triple-double machine is putting up yet another otherworldly season. Jokić may be the top MVP candidate if it weren’t for the question of his postseason awards eligibility. He’s only able to miss one game the rest of the way due to missing extended time with a hyperextended knee.

Still, Jokić has to be a top MVP candidate as he leads the NBA in rebounds and assists per game with 10 more triple-doubles than any other player. He’s been back to his normal self since returning from injury on Jan. 30, providing no reason for The Joker to miss further time. However, the Nuggets have six back-to-backs after the All-Star break. He can’t rest over the final stretch of the season and he rarely has when healthy. But the playoffs are more important than postseason honors and Denver hopes to remain the second or third seed in the West to avoid the Thunder until the Western Conference finals.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

49 games played, 31.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6.4 apg, 55.4 FG%, 39 3P%, 89.2 FT%

With the most games played among this group, Gilgeous-Alexander likely won’t need to worry about the league requirement for awards season. We already know the uncertainty surrounding his biggest foe for MVP in Jokić, but even if both players remain available for MVP consideration, Gilgeous-Alexander currently has the edge.

He’s on pace to average 30 points for his fourth straight season and the numbers he’s putting up are nearly identical to his maiden MVP season last year. Depending how the rest of the season goes, Gilgeous-Alexander could have a 50/40/90 season in which he shoots 50% or better from the field, 40% from three and 90% from the free-throw line. The last NBA MVP to put together a 50/40/90 season was Steph Curry in 2016 and Dirk Nowitzki before that in ‘07. The Thunder superstar has some work ahead to reach that feat, but even if he doesn’t, steering Oklahoma City’s dominance without Jalen Williams for the first month of the season is more than enough.

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