What to Expect for Nuggets-Timberwolves Game 5: Odds, Lineups, X-Factors

The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves are gearing up to face off for a series-defining Game 5 matchup on Monday night. After falling behind 3-1 due to three straight losses, the Nuggets' season hangs in the balance ahead of Monday's Game 5, desperately needing a win to extend the series.

Of course, everyone knows what's at stake for the Nuggets in Game 5, but what should we expect for this matchup? As much as the Nuggets need a win to extend the series, the Timberwolves need a win to eliminate Denver before they can get any glimpse of hope or momentum.

Game 5 odds and notable player props

Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic — Apr 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert (27) and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) position themselves for a rebound in the fourth quarter at Target Center. | Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

While the Nuggets are down 3-1 in the series, they are actually in a fine position according to the oddsmakers. FanDuel Sportsbook has Denver as just +134 underdogs to come back from a 3-1 deficit and win the series.

For Game 5, specifically, the Nuggets are heavy favorites. The spread for Denver's win-or-go-home Game 5 is -11.5 (-108) in favor of the Nuggets, with a -520 moneyline. The Timberwolves have just +400 odds to close out the series on Monday night.

Notable player props:

Nikola Jokic 30.5 points (over -125, under -106)
Jamal Murray 26.5 points (over -112, under -118)
Julius Randle 21.5 points (over -128, under -104)
Ayo Dosunmu 20.5 points (over +102, under -136)
Rudy Gobert double-double (+145)
Nikola Jokic triple-double (+100)

On paper, this should be a very favorable matchup for the Nuggets back at home, but after such poor performances in the last two games, there is no telling how Game 5 will shake out.

New-look lineups

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards talks with guard Ayo Dosunmu — Apr 23, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) talks with guard Ayo Dosunmu (13) during a free throw by the Denver Nuggets in the first quarter at Target Center. | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

With Minnesota's starting backcourt of Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo both out for the series after suffering injuries in Game 4, the Timberwolves are forced to shake up their lineup. After Ayo Dosunmu dropped a season-high 43 points in Game 4, he is a shoo-in to take Edwards' spot in the starting group. He will likely start alongside veteran guard Mike Conley in this new-look lineup.

This will be the first game of the season DiVincenzo has missed, giving the Timberwolves a look they are not used to. Still, this is the group they will likely roll with for the rest of the series, which still presents a significant test for Denver:

Timberwolves starting lineup: Mike Conley, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert

As for the Nuggets, they could be without Aaron Gordon for the second time in three games as he deals with a calf injury. If he is sidelined, Spencer Jones will likely fill in for him. However, in this win-or-go-home scenario, we expect to see him suit up, even in a limited capacity.

Nuggets starting lineup: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Luckily, the Nuggets have familiarity with both Gordon and Jones in their starting lineup, but of course, they would love to have their preferred five at full strength.

X-Factors

Mar 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Tim Hardaway Jr. (10) against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Regardless of how shorthanded the Timberwolves are, the Nuggets cannot win games without hitting their shots. They are just 14-60 (23.3%) from beyond the arc in their last two games, despite leading the NBA in three-point percentage in the regular season. They desperately need to get hot from deep the rest of the series to have a chance of coming back, meaning they will need their three-point specialists to step up.

Nuggets' x-factors: Tim Hardaway Jr., Cam Johnson

If Hardaway Jr. and Johnson, who both shot over 40% from beyond the arc this season, find their rhythm from beyond the arc in Game 5, the Nuggets will have much more hope going forward.

As for the Timberwolves, they know their defense is still more than capable of slowing down the Nuggets' offense with Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert leading the charge, but they will need some more all-around offensive help with Edwards sidelined. Granted, Minnesota's offense has already been very balanced this series, but they will need an alpha to step up.

Timberwolves' x-factors: Julius Randle, Ayo Dosunmu

Randle has had a very quiet series so far, but with Edwards sidelined, he is their new first option on offense. And, with Dosunmu emerging as an offensive powerhouse over the last two games, he could be their second option. If these two guys can put the work in on offense and let Minnesota's defense take care of itself, the Timberwolves will likely close out this series.

The Nuggets and Timberwolves are set to tip off for Game 5 on Monday in Denver at 8:30 p.m. MT on NBC and Peacock.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sign up for our free Denver Nuggets On SI newsletter, and get breaking Nuggets news delivered to your inbox daily!

Add us as a preferred source on Google