Why Nuggets Will Likely Let Spencer Jones Sign With Thunder

The Denver Nuggets have been tied up with their restricted free agents this offseason, Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones, but the wheels are finally turning. On Saturday, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that Jones has agreed to a two-year, $12 million offer sheet with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Remember, Jones is not gone yet, as the Nuggets have until Sunday at 11:59 p.m. ET to match the Thunder's offer, but his future in Denver is looking grim. We might have actually seen the last of Jones as a Nugget, even though the franchise has the opportunity to match this contract offer.

Too much money

Jones' $12 million deal is fully guaranteed with the Thunder and now the Nuggets have until 11:59 pm ET Sunday to match or not. Denver has dealt with the restricted free agencies of Jones and Peyton Watson this offseason amid rising tax bills. https://t.co/TWSM83iv8M
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) July 25, 2026

While this fully guaranteed $12 million contract is not a horrible price, even though it could be more than what the Nuggets wanted to pay Jones, it would put the franchise in a very tough spot. As ESPN's Bobby Marks pointed out, the Nuggets' current tax penalty is projected to be $36.4 million. However, if they sign Jones, the penalty would jump to $68.6 million.

Is Jones worth that much money for the Nuggets? Sure, the 25-year-old forward had a surprisingly productive sophomore season, but this would put Denver in an awkward financial position.

The Nuggets are doing what they can to improve their roster without diving into the second apron and keeping their luxury tax penalty to a minimum, but with restricted free agent Peyton Watson yet to re-sign, that is much easier said than done. Regardless, the Nuggets will be in a challenging spot financially, and the ownership might have to be willing to pay a hefty tax penalty.

Already found his replacements

Feb 15, 2020; Providence, Rhode Island, USA; Providence Friars guard Alpha Diallo (11) passes the ball against the Seton Hall Pirates during the first half at the Dunkin Donuts Center. | USA TODAY Sports

Fortunately for the Nuggets, Jones is a fairly expendable player. While he brings value on the defensive end and showed promise as a three-point shooter, the Nuggets have already brought in a few new faces this offseason who could replace his spot in the rotation.

Most notably, the Nuggets signed reigning EuroLeague Best Defender winner Alpha Diallo, who was immediately viewed as a potential Jones replacement. In the draft, they also selected Trevon Brazile and Bryce Hopkins, and both rookie forwards bring two-way versatility that could even be a potential upgrade over Jones.

It is worth noting that the Nuggets have yet to sign Hopkins, and if they are truly going to let Jones walk to OKC, we could see the 49th pick in the draft get signed to a standard contract. This would be a significant money-saving move, while fully committing to the second-round rookie.

Why Jones could re-sign in Denver

Apr 27, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Spencer Jones (21) in the third quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves during game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Nuggets are not confident about being able to make actual roster upgrades at this point, including whatever happens with Watson, then it would be kind of silly to let Jones walk. His $6 million per year is a fair price, especially if they are not worried about their incoming luxury tax bill.

Despite already filling their forward rotation to an extent, Jones could still bring value to Denver's lineup. Especially considering they would likely rather have him in their lineup than let one of their biggest Western Conference threats, the Thunder, get him.

Re-signing Jones might not be worth the extra luxury tax penalty, but if the ownership is not as worried about that, then there is not much reason to let him walk. Regardless, the Nuggets have a big decision to make on Sunday, and it really could go either way. But if I had to guess, Jones will be signing with the Thunder.

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