The Easy Decision for the Indiana Pacers to Make at the Draft

Let's not think too hard about the direction

Jan 4, 2025; Gilbert, AZ, USA; Utah Prep Academy forward AJ Dybantsa (3) against Faith Family Academy (TX) during the Hoophall West High School Invitational at Highland High School. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Gap years are slow and frustrating, especially when fans have recently seen two deep playoff trips. To pile on, it only adds to the eagerness for fans of the Indiana Pacers when they see their division foes — the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers — look so potent. 

But better days are coming sooner rather than later. 

The Pacers’ first-round pick is protected if it falls at 1-4 and 10-30 stemming from the trade for Ivica Zubac in February. The team has a 52.1 percent chance of landing in the top four and a 14 percent chance of winning the lottery. If they hypothetically keep their pick, they’ll be operating from a position of strength because they’ll be able to choose an instant contributor or or someone who is more of a project with a higher ceiling.

This moment will be used to pass down ancient wisdom: always pick the most talented player available. 

Presuming Tyrese Haliburton returns to full form, with the pieces in place, the Pacers will be a contender next season. It looks like whoever their pick is will be a reserve because the top guys play a position already occupied in the starting rotation. So maximizing the sixth or seventh man role with A.J. Dybantsa, if they had the first pick, would be the go-to move. 

He’ll eventually be one of the top offensive options wherever he lands, and he fits well since he is a transition threat plus has enough polish now to score at least 15 points per game. His talent could extend the build’s contending timeline depending on how quickly he develops, too. 

In case they don’t win the lottery, and Dybantsa is taken first, then the alternatives in order should be Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer and Caleb Wilson. The type of talent that Peterson is, he would challenge for a starting spot the quickest among the remaining three, and that’s no knock on Andrew Nembhard, who has been excellent for the team. Peterson is smooth off the bounce and a 3-point weapon, making 38.2 percent of attempts on a decent volume (6.9 attempts).

Boozer and Wilson would be solid picks for the bench, too. They would be safer than taking Mikel Brown, who will probably turn out to be a very good player, but can be inconsistent, is a below average 3-point shooter and is not an efficient passer.

At the stage the team is at, they can’t wait around for a project to pop. Everything needs to be about giving them the best chance to win now.

(For more on what could happen to the Pacers' draft pick, the latest mock draft from Alex Golden of Pacers OnSI provides an unusual scenario.)