NBA Draft Scouting Report: Leonard Miller A Low-Reward Risk

NEW ORLEANS- Teams are starting to bring in prospects for individual workouts now that the NBA Combine in Chicago is wrapped up. The New Orleans Pelicans have just under a month to weigh their options before the 2023 NBA Draft (June 22). Though a trade involving the 14th overall pick would not be surprising, there are several players who would be able to help this team immediately.

I do not believe Leonard Miller is one of those options. It is not a knock on his potential, but rather his production on a rookie contract over the next four years. The Pelicans can find a better fit for the roster. Miller can probably land in a better spot to play through growing pains with less pressure.

New Orleans needs shooting, rebounding, and players that can keep up with the Point-5 second offense. Miller is still learning the pro game and would not be able to space the floor shooting 53.7% from the field and 30% (28/92) from beyond the arc.

The 19-year-old would not have much room to learn on the job with next year's Pelicans. Sure, he finished the year strong, playing in 24 games (19 starts) for the G-League Ignite (18 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 30.5 mpg) last season but there is no clear path to developmental minutes behind Zion Williamson and Larry Nance Jr.

Beyond available minutes and an under-construction jump shot, Miller would not have a good positional fit on next year's Pelicans in any of the usual lineups. Last year's second-round pick EJ Liddell is already primed for those minutes and has been in the building learning the playbook since last summer.

The front office cannot be too patient to the point of sending another lottery pick to Birmingham for most of their rookie-year minutes. The next 12 months are too crucial for the franchise. The front office and coach staff likely has contract extensions riding on this success of this season. If Miller makes it to 14, the Pelicans have plenty of reason to pass.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (12th) and Indiana Pacers have already lined up meetings according to Miller. The Pacers have the 7th, 26th, and 29th picks. If they are looking at Miller, it might mean the Myles Turner trade is finally going to happen.

Measurables

Height (w/o shoes): 6'9.25''
Weight: 212 lbs
Wingspan: 7'2''
Standing Reach: 8'10.5''
Free Throw: 79%
3PT: 30.4% on 2.4 attempts per game
3/4 Sprint: 3.3 seconds
Lane Agility: 11 seconds
Standing Vertical: 32 inches
Max Vertical: 37.5 inches

Miller is not the biggest, tallest, fastest, quickest, or most polished shooter among late-lottery, borderline first-round big men. He finished dead last in the spot-up corner three-pointer drill in Chicago. His free-throw percentage gives some hope Miller can be an average three-point shooter in a few years, but not much more.

As for what does not show up on the measuring tape, Miller explained during the combine's interview session, "I feel like what I've done with Ignite fits modern basketball. On the court, I can pass, dribble, and shoot. I feel like that's what you need to do. I'm just a hooper. I just go out there and I have a good feel for the game. And also I can defend. I'm versatile on the defensive end with my length and everything, that also helps with the game right now."

Offense

Let's not be too negative. The argument for selecting Miller is simple. It's another swing at finding a Jaxson Hayes type of athlete to pair with Zion Williamson. With Hayes likely leaving in free agency, drafting Miller would reset the clock on that developmental spot at about the same salary cap cost.

Miller is arguably already a better shooter, ball-handler, and screener than Hayes already. Teams have respected his catch-and-shoot opportunities, he can attack the rim off the dribble, and lead a fast break. If you look hard enough at the mid-range and low-block work, it's possible to see the silhouette of Tim Duncan.

There is a reason he backed out of last's years draft though. There is a lot of work to be done.

I think Leonard Miller has sorta become a forgotten guy in this draft. I advocated for him as a lottery caliber guy last year and I'm still there. Rare size, speed, and fluidity combo pic.twitter.com/H7CCRn5GPF
— Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14) May 17, 2023

Sticking with the Hayes comparisons, Miller loves chasing highlight dunks and putback rebounds. He was 6th in the G-League with 11 rebounds (3.3 off, 7.7 def), averaged 4.3 second-chance points per game, and 12.3 points in the paint this season.

Miller has shown off a soft touch and good form, it's just the ability to sight in as a marksman consistently that is an issue. According to G League statistics, 11.8% of Leonard’s points came from three-pointers and 4.2% from the midrange areas.

Taking care of the ball is also an issue. Miller's 1.6 assists are countered by 1.5 turnovers per game (1.08 assist-to-turnover ratio). Willie Green won't put up with much of that kind of inconsistency. However, Miller's highlight potential is too great to keep on the bench for long stretches.

Leonard Miller is a pretty versatile athlete and leaper. Gets off quickly off one or two-feet and that combines nicely with his slashing and cutting to make him a consistent above the rim finisher pic.twitter.com/gax4Rw3YDp
— Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14) May 17, 2023

Defense

Miller’s had plenty of defensive highlights in the G-League, mostly as a help-side defender or chasing down blocks. He has the length to cause real problems as a point-of-attack defender but has problems navigating through screens. Finding a way to fight through traffic without fouling will be a multi-year process.

Focus as an off-ball defender is sometimes an issue. Teams can hide Miller away from the actions and then beat him with late cuts and backdoor screens. Communication will go a long way to fixing those flaws. Those flaws though were put to the test on the biggest stage against Victor Wembanyama and Metropolitans 92.

Leonard Miller's defense vs Mets 92 was pretty up and down. He continues to struggle with positioning, choosing when to be aggressive, and with jumping. However, he was an active tagger and didn't fall asleep too much, and he flashed his intriguing recovery tools a few times. pic.twitter.com/MKhKFIsXTs
— Josh Abercrombie (@jtabercrombie3) October 12, 2022

Summary: Miller’s a potential All-Star talent worth gambling on later in the draft but could also use more time in the G-League. The Pelicans need more production out of this pick next season, either with a better-fitting selection or a swap of some sort. Miller's risk-reward proposition just does not look likely to pay off any time soon.

Low on Leonard Miller. Going to take too much time to develop. Willie Green is not going to let anyone play if they are lacking focus on defense. Miller is still learning the nuances of the game of basketball. It's going to take years for him to catch up to the NBA game in a way that helps these Pelicans. I hope he is off the board before the 14th pick, just so that option is unavailable.

Comps From Other Outlets

USA Today/Yardbarker: Marvin Bagley, Brandon Ingram
The Ringer: Paul Millsap
NBADraftRoom: Al Harrington

Measurables

Offense

Defense

Comps From Other Outlets

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