NBA Playoff Picture: Updated Probabilities and Biggest Storylines Impacting the Standings

A look at the NBA playoff race with less than 20 games left to go for each team in the regular season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder won their 50th game of the season on Friday | Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images

With just over a month left in the NBA’s regular season, the playoff picture in both conferences is starting to fall into place.

While the teams that will be within the 10-team play-in tournament field in each conference are all but solidified with some teams in a full-force tank, plenty can change over the final chunk of the regular season in terms of playoff seeding. In the loaded Western Conference, the third- and sixth-place teams are separated by only 1 1/2 games. The Suns, the first team out of the top six and guaranteed playoff berth that comes with it, are two games back of the sixth-place Lakers.

In the East, the top-four seeds of the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks and Cavaliers have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. There could be some movement at the top, though, especially with Jayson Tatum’s return to the Celtics on Friday night. Beyond the best four teams, the Raptors, Magic, Heat, 76ers, Hawks and Hornets are battling to avoid the play-in. Just four games separate the No. 5 and No. 10 seeds—which opens the door for some chaos down the stretch, especially with the Hornets and Heat on recent tears.

Here’s a look at the playoff race in both the East and West as all teams now have 20 or less games remaining on the regular-season schedule. Playoff probabilities are included for each team courtesy of Basketball Reference. Plus, some key moments from the past week that have impacted the playoff picture across the league:

Western Conference playoff picture

The Spurs and Thunder are the class of the Western Conference | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Seed	Team	Record	Games back	Playoff probability
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	50–15	---	100%
2	San Antonio Spurs	46–17	3	100%
3	Houston Rockets	39–23	9.5	99.9%
4	Minnesota Timberwolves	40–24	9.5	99.7%
5	Denver Nuggets	39–25	10.5	98.9%
6	Los Angeles Lakers	38–25	11	90.7%
---	PLAY-IN FIELD	---	---	---
7	Phoenix Suns	36–27	13	81.8%
8	Golden State Warriors	32–31	17	63.4%
9	Los Angeles Clippers	31–32	18	44.1%
10	Portland Trail Blazers	30–34	19.5	21.6%
---	---		---	---
11	Memphis Grizzlies	23–39	25.5	0.1%
12	Dallas Mavericks	21–42	28	0%
13	New Orleans Pelicans	20–45	30	0%
14	Utah Jazz	19–45	30.5	0%
15	Sacramento Kings	14–50	35.5	0%

Eastern Conference playoff picture

Jayson Tatum’s return boosts the Celtics’ title hopes | Winslow Townson-Imagn Images

Seed	Team	Record	Games back	Playoff probability
1	Detroit Pistons	45–17	---	100%
2	Boston Celtics	42–21	3.5	100%
3	New York Knicks	41–23	5	100%
4	Cleveland Cavaliers	39–24	6.5	100%
5	Toronto Raptors	35–27	10	88.8%
6	Orlando Magic	34–28	11	62.2%
---	PLAY-IN FIELD	---	---	---
7	Miami Heat	35–29	11	91.5%
8	Philadelphia 76ers	34–29	11.5	63.7%
9	Atlanta Hawks	33–31	13	37.5%
10	Charlotte Hornets	32–32	14	56.1%
---	---	---	---	---
11	Milwaukee Bucks	27–35	18	0.2%
12	Chicago Bulls	26–37	19.5	0%
13	Washington Wizards	16–46	29	0%
14	Brooklyn Nets	16–47	29.5	0%
15	Indiana Pacers	15–48	30.5	0%

Recent happenings around the NBA that have impacted the playoff race

Jayson Tatum’s return

The Celtics’ title hopes got a massive boost with Tatum’s season debut, 10 months after he tore his right Achilles in last year’s playoffs. He had a solid first game back, scoring 15 points with 12 rebounds and seven assists in Friday’s win over the Mavericks. Nikola Vučević fractured his ring finger during Tatum’s return game, thinning Boston’s frontcourt. But adding Tatum toward the end of the season is a scary sight for the rest of the East.

Thunder become first team to 50 wins this season

Surprise, surprise.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder won their 50th game of the season on Saturday. The Warriors pushed Oklahoma City to the final minute, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s 27-point night was too much for Golden State to overcome. The Spurs and Pistons are next closest to the feat with 46 and 45 wins, respectively. The Thunder continue their dominance as they prepare to defend their title come playoff time.

The Hornets are the hottest team in the NBA

You read that right, something special is brewing in Charlotte. The Hornets were on a six-game winning streak before they lost to the Heat on Friday, a stretch in which Charlotte was the best team in the NBA. Kon Knueppel leads the NBA in three-pointers as the core of LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Knueppel has the Hornets in position for a playoff push. Currently, Charlotte is an even .500 with a plush cushion as the last team in the East’s play-in picture.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs continue to shine

San Antonio has won 14 of its last 15 games. The Spurs erased a 25-point deficit Friday night to beat the Clippers, which had Wembanyama visibly emotional after a wild couple days of basketball. He had 38 points in a win over the East-leading Pistons Thursday, then 27 points in the comeback against Los Angeles on Friday. Wemby and the Spurs had a much deserved day off Saturday.

First-place Pistons are on a three-game skid

Detroit has had an incredible season, currently at 45–17 and in position for the top seed in the East. The Pistons have had a tough recent stretch and dropped games to the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road earlier this week. A return back to Little Caesars Arena for a matchup with the Nets was welcomed, but MVP candidate Cade Cunningham was out and Ausar Thompson sprained his ankle in the loss to San Antonio. Against Brooklyn, the depleted Pistons squandered a 23-point lead for their third loss in a row. They now have a 3 1/2 game cushion on the Celtics, who are second in the East.

76ers star Tyrese Maxey injures hand Friday against the Hawks

There’s no official update on the severity’s of Maxey’s injury which he suffered late in Philadelphia’s loss Friday in Atlanta. The collision with teammate Adem Bona didn’t look good, but we won’t know more on the star guard’s hand injury until he undergoes further tests Sunday. Maxey is in the midst of a career season as a top-five scorer across the NBA. If Maxey misses considerable time, it would be a brutal blow for Philly as Joel Embiid remains sidelined with an oblique injury.

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