Breaking Down the Houston Rockets Path to the 2026 NBA Finals

Last season, the Houston Rockets finished with 52 wins and captured the No. 2 seed in a loaded Western Conference. This year, they had the same record, but the NBA got a lot more top-heavy.

The Rockets hit 52 wins for the second straight season, but enter the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, without home-court advantage in the first round. They'll face the Los Angeles Lakers, who are dealing with injuries to their star players.

Houston is favored in the first round, but what about its path after that? The West is loaded with title contenders, and outside of the series against Los Angeles, the Rockets have a tough road to the NBA Finals.

First Round: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are without Luka Dončić (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique), potentially for all of the first round. The Rockets should take care of them without many problems, but LeBron James has carried teams like this before. But can he do it at 41 years old?

Second Round: Winner of Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Play-In Winner #1

Most Likely Opponent: Oklahoma City Thunder

If the Rockets get past the Lakers, they're pretty much guaranteed to have the defending champions waiting. Oklahoma City is a juggernaut at 64-18.

The Thunder won the season series against Houston, 2-1. The Rockets' lone win came when two of Oklahoma City's three best players were missing. Against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, Houston would have an extremely tough time.

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Play-In Winner #2

Most Likely Opponent: San Antonio Spurs

If Houston pulls off one of the greatest playoff upsets in recent history, it would then have nearly as tough an opponent in the Western Conference Finals. Any of the three other playoff teams would be a challenge.

The Spurs won the season series against OKC, 4-1, as they've taken a major leap with the development of their young core. Houston would have almost no answer for Victor Wemabanyama, and the Spurs' guard core of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper would post challenges from the perimeter.

The Rockets lost the season series to the Nuggets and Timberwolves as well, and they have some of the NBA's elite in Nikola Jokić and Anthony Edwards. Any of those three would be heavily favored over Houston.

NBA Finals

Most Likely Opponents: Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks

If somehow the Rockets get past the Lakers, Thunder and any of the other three teams within the top six, they'd face the champion bloodbath of the Eastern Conference. While Oklahoma City is expected to make it out of the West, the other conference has much more parity.

The Detroit Pistons are the No. 1 seed at 60-22, but they still lack deep playoff experience. Last year, Detroit made the postseason for the first time since 2019, but fell to the New York Knicks in round one.

Speaking of the Knicks, they were the favorites to win the East coming into the 2025-26 season. They performed slightly worse than expected, but still own the NBA's fourth-best offensive rating and seventh-best defensive rating.

The third team in the top tier of the East is the Boston Celtics, who have exceeded expectations amid Jayson Tatum being out for most of the season. An unprecedented return puts Boston at full strength entering the playoffs, and the regular season showed that the this team can make a legitimate NBA Finals run.

The Celtics finished second in offensive rating despite missing their leading scorer from last season. Jaylen Brown has taken a leap into MVP candidacy. Any of these three teams would give the Rockets tremendous trouble in the final series of the year.

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