Two Factors That Will Define the Houston Rockets' Ceiling Next NBA Season

If the Houston Rockets retain the current core, they'll be banking on two major pieces in the rotation.

Mar 23, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet (5) and forward Amen Thompson (1) react after a play during the third quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets have high hopes for the 2026-27 season, but this offseason will say everything about the direction the organization wants to take. Last year, Rafael Stone and the front office went from strictly building around the young core to 'win now' mode with the acquisition of Kevin Durant.

The Rockets can certainly double down on that this summer, as a few high-profile names have been linked to them in trade rumors. But they could certainly continue to invest in the current roster. Don't forget, a few key injuries hindered the team this past season, giving the organization a reason to run it back.

Say Houston keeps the same rotation in place to gauge where the team is in comparison to the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. In that case, the Rockets would be banking on two factors of the system, or rather two players, to improve production, particularly on the offensive end:

Fred VanVleet Returns to Form

VanVleet missed the entire 2025-26 season due to a torn ACL, and of all the injuries that occurred, his was the most detrimental to team success. Houston lacked any semblance of a point guard, and it hindered its ball security. On top of that, the rotation was missing a solid three-point threat in an offense that lacked it.

The Rockets ranked 27th in turnover percentage across 82 regular-season games, and averaged nearly 14 giveaways a night in the playoffs. Without VanVleet, they didn't have a veteran ball handler and lost a consistent scorer, relying on a committee of facilitators that just couldn't hold up.

VanVleet running the point will allow stars like Durant and Alperen Sengun to play in their sweet spots rather than having to help against the defense so early in each possession. If he returns to form, Houston's offense is bound to improve.

Amen Thompson's Continued Development

Thompson's defensive production took a slight dip, but only because he had to give more on the other end of the floor. The 23-year-old took a major offensive leap while shouldering more responsibilities, averaging 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game.

Thompson's looming contract extension is a concern this summer, but if Houston doesn't go all in on a superstar, he'll remain with the organization next season at the very least. The Rockets will need the 6-foot-7 wing to continue his development, specifically from the perimeter.

Thompson shot 53.4% from the field this year, but a 21.6% three-point rate created somewhat of a liability in the offense. Defenses were able to play aggressively in help, which can't happen next season if Houston wants to improve. Thompson has to take another offensive leap and develop his shot.