3 Bold Predictions for Suns' 1st Round Series vs Thunder

PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns will play their first playoff game in two years today as they open up their first-round matchup against the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder this afternoon.

This series will be a very tall task for the No. 8 Suns in the first year with this core of players against the defending champs, who have years of experience together.

Only six No. 8 seeds have won their first-round series against a No. 1 seed in NBA history.

Phoenix will also be looking to end its playoff losing streak heading into the first round, as the Suns have lost six games in a row in the playoffs dating back to the 2022-23 season.

Here are three bold predictions for the first round series:

Devin Booker Fails to Crack 30 Points in Any Game

Apr 14, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) reacts against the Portland Trail Blazers in the first half during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Devin Booker doesn't have many things going for him heading into this series.

Booker is coming off two subpar performances in the play-in, has averaged just 18.3 points on 38.9% shooting from the field over the last three seasons against the Thunder and really struggled the last time the Suns were in the playoffs when they were swept by the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2024 other than a huge performance in the final game.

You can never count out Booker to prove everyone wrong, especially given his past history in the playoffs, but the optics don't look good for him going into the first round.

The Thunder are likely going to load up against him, which, even if he does have a good game, could force him to be more of a passer than a scorer, a role he has embraced this season.

The Suns are either going to need Booker to step up or everyone around him to, and it really feels like they might need to rely on the latter.

Chet Holmgren Proves to Be Most Difficult Matchup for Suns

Apr 5, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (7) dunks against the Utah Jazz during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

It remains to be seen if the Thunder elect to use a double-big lineup against the Suns with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, or just start Holmgren at center.

Either way, out of the Thunder's three best players, Holmgren could make the biggest difference against a Suns team that has struggled against size.

Phoenix will likely stick Jordan Goodwin on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dillon Brooks on Jalen Williams, but would not have the size to guard Holmgren if he starts at the 4.

If he starts at center, Mark Williams, who is questionable for Game 1 with left foot soreness, would be on him if he's available and has had a difficult time matching up against stretch bigs.

It's easy to focus on the offensive prowess of Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, but the Suns must devise a plan to not let Holmgren get rolling because good looks could be there for him all series long.

Thunder Take Care of Business in 4 (or 5) Games

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives to the basket against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Thunder are a juggernaut for anyone they could have gone up against in the first two rounds, and the Suns unfortunately got the short end of the stick after they lost their first play-in matchup.

Phoenix actually played the Thunder tight in the two games Booker was available against them this year and won the Jan. 4 meeting on a Booker game-winner, so the Suns do have that going for them, as well as Jalen Green not playing in any game against them due to injury.

However, the Suns have not been the same team they were the first few months of the season as of late. They'll just have to hope they can carry over the momentum from Friday's play-in victory over the Golden State Warriors.

OKC has one of the best playoff crowds in the NBA, so the Suns have to do their best not to get rattled in Games 1 and 2.

Phoenix could pull off a victory or two if its 3-point shooting and defense are on point, but the Thunder are simply the better team with a lot more chemistry and this series could easily end in a sweep.

We will see what ends up happening when the ball is tipped off this afternoon.

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