Suns vs Thunder Predictions: Staff Picks for First-Round Playoff Series

The Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder are set to embark on a first round playoff series with Game 1 on Sunday.

The reigning NBA champions will look to have both rest and home court advantage through the series while the Suns are hoping to carry on court momentum following their win against the Golden State Warriors last night.

The Thunder, to no surprise, are heavy favorites to advance into the second round — but can Phoenix make any noise at all?

Suns vs Thunder Staff Predictions

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives to the basket against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Donnie Druin: Thunder in 5

This is less of an indictment on the Suns and more of just how much of a well-oiled machine the Thunder are at this point in time. After winning the NBA Finals last season, they didn’t see a drop in performance and could very much repeat as champions. Phoenix got two wins against OKC this season and nearly got a third, so it’s not as if the Suns haven’t shown they can hang.

However, this is going to come down to Jordan Ott’s ability to win a chess match with Mark Daigneault. I think the Suns will be able to steal a game at home, but winning a playoff matchup in Oklahoma City might be asking too much for this group at this point in time. The Thunder have practically every factor leaning their way and they’re favorites for a reason. However, it’s tough to see the Suns being swept even with the odds stacked against them. Phoenix’s group deserves credit for how they play, and their physical brand of basketball could very well bode well in a playoff environment.

I’m picking OKC in five here, but I will not be surprised if the series is extended by an extra game.

Kevin Hicks: Thunder in 5

The Suns would have had a tall task regardless of their first-round opponent, but Oklahoma City is obviously the more challenging linear matchup here. The Thunder are a well-oiled machine as mentioned above - they are a historically dominant defense, can go as far as 12-deep in their rotations, and roster who is arguably the best player in the NBA today in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

This will also certainly be a battle of tactical geniuses, as Mark Daigneault will adjust by the minute, while Jordan Ott will be working tirelessly to find clean looks for his stars in Devin Booker and Jalen Green. There are three interesting factors to watch on Phoenix’s side. Firstly - what will Mark Williams’ role look like if he is good to go? The Suns’ starting center could be advantageous in spurts, but it would be unlikely that he receives a bulk of minutes.

Secondly, what will Grayson Allen’s status be throughout the series? The talented combo guard has reliably been the second best playmaker on the team this season and would stretch OKC’s defense more than otherwise, but how healthy/ready to go is he? Lastly, Green set the league on fire in the play-in, but will it continue against the aforementioned historically strong defense? The Thunder’s defense is so versatile, switchable, and proficient in different scenarios that it feels as if it will be a shore for Green to receive the looks he did over the last two games.

On OKC’s side shooting is a major question mark. Jared McCain and Ajay Mitchell have provided much-needed three-point shooting during the closing stretch of the season, but the flaw that nearly became fatal during last season’s run was the team being in the bottom quarter of playoff teams in three-point proficiency.

I can easily see a world in which the Suns are able to steal two games with this question in frame, but the Thunder are simply too deep, centered around continuity, and exceptional in situational basketball for this to be a seven-game series.

Brendan Mau: Thunder in 5

Phoenix needed to win its first play-in game on Tuesday to have any chance at a series victory because the defending champs are just too tough of a team for them. OKC has a few elite guard defenders who can make life difficult for both Devin Booker and Jalen Green, so the rest of Phoenix’s group needs to step up in a big way to help them out, which they haven’t shown the ability to do as of late.

The Suns can steal at least one game against anyone in the league when their shots are falling because of their 3-point volume, so I expect this to be the case, just as it was in their Jan. 4 108-105 surprise victory over an almost completely healthy OKC team when they shot 17-for-43 (40%) from deep as a team.

Still, the Thunder’s historic defense, their ability to not turn the ball over offensively and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive prowess will make it very challenging for Phoenix, who has struggled the last month, to flip things around quickly and pull off what would be an historic upset.

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