Clutch-time issues have cost Wolves in tight Western Conference playoff race

Minnesota's 43 clutch-time games are the most in the NBA, but it's won just 41.9% of those games.

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards works against New Orleans Pelicans guard Jordan Hawkins in the third quarter at Target Center in Minneapolis on March 21, 2025. / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

On St. Patrick's Day, Anthony Edwards missed a series of 3-pointers, Obi Toppin couldn't miss for the Indiana Pacers and the Minnesota Timberwolves ultimately let a game against a team missing four of their five starters slip away in overtime.

Two nights later against the lowly and injured New Orleans Pelicans, the Wolves generated good looks on offense, but shot just 1 for 8 over the final 5 minutes, 39 seconds of the game. Four of those misses were layups, another was a wide-open 3-pointer and Minnesota shot just 4 for 8 from the free-throw line. The Pels also grabbed four offensive rebounds.

The Wolves are in the midst of a dogfight in the Western Conference playoff picture, and more than anything, it's losses like those that could result in Minnesota having to fight its way into the playoffs via the play-in tournament. After Monday's blowout loss to the Pacers, the Wolves have a 41-32 record and are eighth in the West standings, a game back of the Golden State Warriors for the sixth seed that would keep them out of the play-in. It's been a far cry from last season when the Wolves were contending for the top seed in the conference, rather than fighting to avoid the play-in tournament.

It's not the same Timberwolves team it was a season ago, and many of their losses can be chalked up to the integration process for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo following the Karl-Anthony Towns trade as Minnesota got off to a slow start, but the Wolves have also dropped winnable games. There have been games like Monday night, where the Wolves just didn't show enough fight against a good Pacers team and allowed the game to slip away from them in the second half.

Another primary issue has been Minnesota's struggles in the clutch. The team's 43 clutch-time games are the most of any team in the NBA, but the Wolves have won just 41.9% (18-25) of those games (24th in NBA). The problems in the clutch have ranged from all over the map — from the offensive end to the defensive end to flat-out avoidable mistakes. With nine regular-season games left, every one is critical for Minnesota, and the late-game issues can't cost them any more games.

Struggling in the clutch

While issues in the clutch have surfaced on both ends of the court, the offense has been a bigger issue, according to the numbers. The Wolves have just a 103.8 offensive rating in clutch time, 25th in the league, and they shoot just 39.5% in the final five minutes, 26th in the league. Their 13.3% turnover percentage is 11th worst among the 30 NBA teams as well.

In some respects, the Wolves go as their best player, Edwards, goes, and they can fall victim to him in the clutch minutes. He has a tendency to go into hero mode — he has a 38.9% usage rate in clutch time — and take ill-advised shots.

That was the case in the St. Patrick's Day loss to the Pacers, and while Edwards has also willed the Wolves to wins they otherwise wouldn't have achieved, he's also cost them games with his ill-timed hero shots. Edwards has a -10.7 net rating in clutch minutes, and while his shooting numbers remain strong overall, they drop off significantly in the final 10 seconds of games, where he's shot just 2 for 11 on field goals this season, including a potential game-winner from 3-point range at the buzzer of regulation in that game against Indiana. The Edwards takeovers can create issues offensively late in games.

"I think we need to vary our end of games," Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said before Friday's rematch against the Pelicans. "We can't rely solely on (Edwards). That's one (part). Two, I think it's just the decision-making. I think we've got to get out of the mentality of just trying to hit a home run every single time we're up at the plate because it hasn't worked."

Edwards is a superstar, no doubt, but he's also been the projector of that home-run mentality. He's been of the mindset that Minnesota's issue don't lie offensively in the clutch, but defensively. There's no doubt that end has caused the Wolves trouble, too, and it's not the same as it was last season, but their 112.8 defensive rating ranks 20th in the NBA, above their offensive numbers, and in areas they've struggled with at times, like rebounding, their numbers are middle of the pack.

"I don't really think we need buckets, we need to get stops," Edwards said after the March 19 loss to the Pelicans. "We can't get no stops, so of course we're putting pressure on ourselves to score because we can't get no stops. I think that's just it. We usually — like coach said something great today, we usually, last year, we used to freeze teams out on the defensive end. Like sometimes in the clutch moments of games, it's not always about offense. Of course, sometimes I might take hero shots because I believe I'm that good. I should be able to take those shots, I worked for it. So sometimes that might not go our way because I might miss those shots."

Edwards has always been a coachable player, particularly upon reflection, but there remains work to be done on the late-game approach. Finch noted with all the clutch games the Wolves have had, there's a large body of work to analyze now. "If for no other reason, if for no other thing, we have this body of work and we can get better at it to build on in the future, then it's been fruitful. But along the way, we still got to get better and win these games when we get a chance," Finch said.

The areas the Wolves can build on, in Finch's mind, include cutting down on turnovers, reducing the home-run or hero shots and being more aggressive getting into the heart of the defense during the clutch-time minutes. Not settling and getting more teammates involved. That could include getting the ball into Randle's hands more often in the clutch. The Wolves score 1.13 points per possession when Randle gets a post touch, tied for 25th in the NBA, efficiency Finch noted.

"We have to be more diverse," Finch said. "We have to get the ball to (Randle) in those situations more. ... He always creates good looks. He still has the opportunity to make tough shots for himself in those moments. And then hopefully, (Edwards) will be the beneficiary of some of that, too, where you get the ball in space, he can attack the closeout and they're not just loading up against them and he ends up taking heavily challenged shots, for sure."

---

Recommended articles

feed