Blazers Win Projection: Better or Worse Than Last Year?

The Portland Trail Blazers finished 42-40 during the 2025-26 season and they hope to see some improvement in the upcoming year.

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija reacts to a play during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Portland Trail Blazers are doing everything in their power to improve their placement in the Western Conference standings.

ESPN analysts believe the Blazers will finish with a 43-39 record in the upcoming season, which is one game better than they were this past season.

"Portland has undergone an even more dramatic transition. Interim coach Tiago Splitter parted ways with the team after guiding it to a 42-39 record. Chauncey Billups was suspended and is now coaching the Bulls. New Blazers owner Tom Dundon hired longtime Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori and ruffled feathers in the coaching community by offering only one guaranteed year on Nori's contract," ESPN wrote.

"Nori will be commanding a new-look team featuring Ja Morant, who has played just 79 games over the past three seasons after back-to-back All-Star nods in 2022 and 2023, and franchise icon Damian Lillard, who missed all of last season (save for a triumphant 3-point contest) while rehabbing an Achilles tear."

Blazers Projected For 43 Wins

Portland Trail Blazers head coach Micah Nori answers questions from the press conference. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Blazers made a lot of improvements with their roster, and Morant and Lillard should be able to put Portland in a better position to win. That doesn't mean the Blazers should only be better by one game.

The Blazers will get at least some impact from one of them, but if both of them can be healthy and strong contributors, they have a lot of potential to crack that 50-win barrier.

The projections have only five 50-win teams in the Western Conference. The San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Minnesota Timberwolves are in their own tier, while the Los Angeles Lakers, Blazers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Utah Jazz are viewed as the potential play-in teams.

The Blazers will likely still end up in this play-in tier because they do not have the long-standing experience of being one of the top teams. The improvements they have made are important, but it shouldn't be enough to improve their record by 10 games or more. They likely won't be better than any of the teams in the top five.

Upon first glance, 43 wins sounds like it's too few, but it probably isn't far off of what the team is actually capable of. Getting to 50 wins would be very difficult, so Portland's goal should be anywhere from 45 to 50. That seems like an attainable number without it being too lofty.