A Way-Too-Early Look at the Blazers' Playoff Chances

The Portland Trail Blazers have the talent to return to the postseason, but a stacked Western Conference won't make it easy.

Apr 12, 2026; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson (00) waits during a break in action during the second half against the Sacramento Kings at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last season, the Portland Trail Blazers exceeded expectations and stole the No. 7 seed in the NBA playoffs. This year they won't be sneaking up on anybody. The organization doubled down on trying to improve the Blazers' playoff chances with the addition of Ja Morant to lead the new regime under first-year head coach Micah Nori.

On paper, the Blazers have enough talent to be competitive with the top teams in the Western Conference. But the question isn't whether they will be able to compete, but rather will they able to survive in what is an extremely deep West.

Where Portland Stacks Up

Apr 10, 2026; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe (17) and center Robert Williams III (35) before the National Anthem begins in a game against the LA Clippers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With the addition of Morant, the Blazers added a star to lead the offense alongside Deni Avdija who is also coming off of the best season of his career. Last year he averaged 24 points per game along with just under seven assists and seven rebounds per game. Starting center Donovan Clingan also took a step forward in his second NBA season, as he averaged 12 points and 11 rebounds per game in just 27 minutes.

Additionally, the Blazers still have Shaedon Sharpe, who averaged 20 points per game last year and will now likely be coming off the bench with Scoot Henderson. Morant's star potential with Lillard means Henderson will likely find himself in a bench role. That is an unfortunate development for Henderson, but someone will have to get the short end of the stick.

Jrue Holiday and Toumani Camara also return, and while they aren't the most prolific scorers on the team, both players are defensive anchors. Their ability to defend the perimeter will be the primary focal point of Portland's defense for the upcoming season.

There is a massive logjam in the backcourt, which is a good problem to have for Nori, but the guard rotation will have to make some sacrifices in order to coexist.

However, The Western Conference is Unforgiving

Apr 21, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) reaches for a rebound over San Antonio Spurs forwards Keldon Johnson (3) and Carter Bryant (11) during the first half of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of course, having a playoff-caliber roster doesn't automatically guarantee a playoff spot. The Blazers will still have to earn their place this year.

The Oklahoma City Thunder still look like the best team on paper, and they will be out for revenge after their attempt at a second straight NBA championship was spoiled by the San Antonio Spurs. The Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets will also be fighting for playoff positioning.

The Blazers don't necessarily need to be a top five team in the West to make the playoffs. What they do need to do is avoid extended losing streaks, and beat the teams they are supposed to beat.

Early Prediction

Apr 14, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Jrue Holiday (5) against the Phoenix Suns during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It feels a little early to label Portland as a championship contender, but after last season, if they were to miss the playoffs entirely, that would certainly be considered a disappointment.

The Blazers' roster has a good mix of proven talent alongside emerging young talent. This combination should translate to another season full of success, even with the inevitable growing pains that come along with a first-year head coach.

A finish that is somewhere between the 5th and 7th seed feels like the most realistic outcome for next season. What matters most for Portland is to continue to develop their young role players, and to get more playoff experience for one of the younger rosters in the league.