Assessing Odds That Warriors Land Giannis, Kawhi or LeBron This Offseason

The Golden State Warriors are rumored to have interest in trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kawhi Leonard or signing LeBron James this offseason.

I've assessed the odds of landing them below.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Warriors reportedly offered four unprotected first-round picks for Antetokounmpo at the trade deadline, and this offseason they can improve that offer to include two first-round pick swaps as well.

As outlined here, the Bucks might demand Jimmy Butler's expiring salary in the trade instead of a complicated combination that includes a massive sign-and-trade agreement with Kristaps Porzingis.

To be sure, an offer of Butler, four unprotected first-round picks and 1-2 first-round pick swaps should get Milwaukee's attention.

But the Bucks will massive offers from several other teams, and some of those offers could include young talent that they can start rebuilding around immediately.

Expect Antetokounmpo to get traded somewhere else.

Odds Giannis gets traded to the Warriors: 19-1 (5 percent implied odds)

Kawhi Leonard

There are conflicting reports about how close the Warriors were to trading for Leonard at the trade deadline, but the one thing that's confirmed is they want him.

Similar to the Giannis trade idea, it's likely that Butler would be the money-matching salary in the deal, and I outlined here that it would cost the Warriors two first-round picks.

I suspect Leonard will have other suitors this offseason, but the combination of his age (35 in June) and injury history suggest his market won't be robust.

This gives the Warriors a shot.

The Clippers seem to be flirting with a reset, but what complicates that plan is the fact that they have traded their first-round picks in 2027 (swap rights), 2028 (outright) and 2029 (swap rights).

So I'd argue the Clippers are just 50-50 to trade Leonard at all, which greatly diminishes Golden State's odds.

Odds Kawhi gets traded to the Warriors: 7-1 (12.5 percent implied odds)

LeBron James

James is set to become an unrestricted free agent. He's playing well enough to draw interest from several contenders, but most contenders won't have the cap space to offer him more than some version of the mid-level exception, which is worth either $15 million to non-taxpayers and $6 million to taxpayers.

If the Warriors got confirmation that James wants to join them—which is possible considering he's friends with Draymond Green and has stated his desire to play with Curry—they would have ways to lower their payroll so they can give James the $15 million MLE. One of those avenues would be Draymond Green opting out of the $27.7 million player option and signing a multiyear deal to lower his 2026-27 salary.

Still, you have to wonder if James wants to join a Warriors team that missed the playoffs when he'll presumably have offers from major title contenders.

It's also worth noting that James could retire. I'm guessing he does return, but the fact that it's a possibility hurts the Warriors' odds of landing him a little bit.

Odds LeBron signs with the Warriors: 9-1 (10 percent implied odds)

Odds the Warriors Get One of Them

This puts the Warriors' odds of getting one of them this offseason at 3/1, or 25 percent.

That sounds about right.

Even though Mike Dunleavy Jr. didn't rule out a big trade this offseason, the Warriors braintrust already seems locked into using the 11th pick of the 2026 draft.

Once they use that pick, they will likely end their big trade pursuits and focus on more realistic moves around the margins.

That's probably not what Warriors fans want to hear, but there is some logic behind it.

The 2026 draft is one of the best in recent memory. The Warriors have a good chance to get someone who can help immediately and eventually become a high-end starter.

That shouldn't stop them from trying to trade for Antetokounmpo or Leonard, but drafting a great prospect at No. 11 would take the sting out of not landing a big fish.

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