Latest Lottery News Hurts Warriors' Current and Post-Steph Roster Plans

As much as team governor Joe Lacob would like to avoid it, the Golden State Warriors are headed toward a rebuild when Stephen Curry retires.

Their chances to get back into contention relatively quickly took a hit Thursday.

The NBA announced that for at least the 2027, '28 and '29 drafts, there will be a new lottery system.

It used to be that 14 teams were in the lottery, with just the first four picks decided by drawing of pingpong balls. Now, 16 teams will be in the lottery, and all 16 picks (!) will be decided by pingpong balls.

Teams that finish in the bottom three will get just two lottery pingpong balls. Teams that finish No. 4 to No. 10 will receive three. The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds in each conference get two. The losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games receive one.

Teams with bottom-three records will pick no worse than 12th. But there are no restictions on what can happen otherwise. So it's possible a team with the fourth-worst record could win the lottery or pick 16th.

Teams can no longer pick first in consecutive years, and, perhaps most damaging to rebuilders, teams can no longer pick in the top five in three consecutive years.

Warriors' Draft-Pick-Heavy Trade Packages Could Be Worth Less

The Warriors don't have young players with much trade value, so their ticket to contention in 2026-27 always included making a draft-pick-heavy trade for a star.

For example, part of their trade package to the Bucks for Giannis Antetokounmpo could have included a 2030 first-round pick, a 2031 first-round pick swap and a 2032 first-round pick.

The Bucks would have been hoping all of those picks land in the top five, but now at best they'll only get two top-five picks. What's more, even if the Warriors land in the lottery all three years, the picks might all end up being outside the top 10 due to bad lottery luck.

Teams will still want draft-pick compensation in trades, but now they might not trade their stars unless they are getting one or two young players they like back. That hurts Golden State more than most teams.

Post-Steph Rebuild Won't Take a Spurs-Like Route

The post-Curry rebuild might start as early as the 2027 offseason, which is when these rules will be in effect.

That isn't to say the Warriors will push Curry out. But if they have a bad 2026-27 season, the wheels will be motion for rebuilding like they have never been with Curry in town.

The dream would have been to secure top-five picks in at least three consecutive drafts. That's what the Spurs did, as they drafted Victor Wembanyama first overall in 2023, Stephon Castle fourth overall in 2024 and Dylan Harper second overall in 2025.

Now, that dream isn't possible.

The NBA hasn't locked this lottery reform in past 2029, but I'm guessing it will get extended when voted on.

Could the Warriors still rebuild relatively quickly? Of course. They'll just have to hit on picks outside the top five.

But the timing of these rules hurts any team that is about to embark on a rebuild.

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