Predicting Warriors' Starting, Reserve Lineups After Kuminga Benching

Several things we thought we knew about the Golden State Warriors' rotation pecking order changed last week.

Jonathan Kuminga is now benched, and it could last until he's inevitably traded in mid-January.

Pat Spencer went from an afterthought to someone who deserves an every-game role off the bench.

Gui Santos had a solid three-game road trip that should result in him playing consistent frontcourt minutes.

Quinten Post had another strong week, suggesting he deserves to play much more than his current average of 17.5 minutes per game.

All of those changes are reflected in our latest minutes distribution prediction.

Note that this breakdown is meant for when the Warriors are totally healthy.

Starters (First 5 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs)

Lineup: Steph, Melton, Butler, Green, Post

The Stephen Curry, De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green trio posted a plus-39.2 net rating in Melton's six games before his ACL injury last year, per Cleaning the Glass.

The Jimmy Butler, Quinten Post duo has a plus-14.5 net rating in a much bigger sample size this season.

The hope is that putting them all together would create a dominant starting five.

Next 4 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs

Lineup: Steph, Podz, Moody, Santos, Horford
Substitutions: Podz for Melton; Moody for Butler; Santos for Green; Horford for Post

This lineup has no history playing together, mostly because up until the last week, Santos wasn't getting many opportunities.

In 58 minutes during the three-game road trip, Santos had a plus-13.1 net rating. He gets a well-earned four-minute stint with Steph here.

Last 3 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs

Lineup: Spencer, Podz, Richard, Butler, Green
Substitutions: Spencer for Steph; Richard for Moody; Butler for Santos; Green for Horford

In this minutes distribution, Pat Spencer plays all of his minutes with Steph off, which also means he'll play all of his minutes with Butler on. That is not a coincidence.

The Butler, Spencer duo has an outrageous plus-37.0 net rating.

First 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs

Lineup: Spencer, Richard, Moody, Butler, Post
Substitutions: Moody for Podz; Post for Green

In a very small sample size, this lineup has posted a ridiculous plus-124.8 net rating. That level of dominance won't last, but it deserves more opportunities to see if it can maintain a strong net rating.

Next 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs

Lineup: Steph, Podz, Melton, Green, Post
Substitutions: Steph for Spencer; Podz for Richard; Melton for Moody; Green for Butler

The quartet of Steph, Podz, Green and Post has a dominant plus-97.4 net rating in a small sample size this season. Melton is added to that group with the hope that his two-way impact enhances it.

Last 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs

Lineup: Steph, Melton, Moody, Butler, Green
Substitutions: Moody for Podz; Butler for Post

The Warriors finish the game with a small lineup with Green at the 5, as they have done so often over the years.

Post has played the first eight minutes of the second and fourth quarters in this minutes distribution, so he needs a rest anyway.

Moody has not been at his best in the last 10 games (29.8 percent from three), but over the long term, I'd expect Moody and Melton to be the Warriors' two best three-and-D wings, making them the optimal support pieces for a closing lineup with the Big Three.

Final Minutes Distribution

Steph: 34
Butler: 32
Green: 32
Post: 26
Melton: 26
Moody: 24
Podz: 22
Spencer: 14
Richard: 14
Santos: 8
Horford: 8

No Minutes for Hield, GP2, Seth?

Buddy Hield had a solid three-game road trip, Seth Curry thrived in his first game as a Warrior, and Gary Payton II provides point-of-attack defense and finishing in the paint that Golden State needs.

They haven't earned a demotion, but the Warriors simply have a guard logjam when fully healthy, and it's unrealistic to expect Steve Kerr to play more than 11 players.

This is why Golden State should target a bigger wing or a significant upgrade at center in a Kuminga trade.

If, for example, the Warriors traded Kuminga for Malik Monk, they'd be even smaller. That's why I've suggested wings Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones and Michael Porter Jr. and centers Ivica Zubac and Myles Turner as trade targets.