Why Slow Start Suggests Warriors Can't Win 2026 NBA Title

The Golden State Warriors are 13-12, which isn't a disaster considering how grueling the schedule has been.

But now about eight decades of precedent is working against them.

No NBA team has ever won a championship with 13 or fewer wins in its first 25 games.

The 2005-06 Miami Heat, 1953-94 Syracuse Nationals and 1946-47 Philadelphia Warriors were the only 14-11 teams to win it all.

Since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger, five teams have had exactly 15 wins in their first 25 games and won the championship: the 2022-23 Nuggets, 2003-04 Pistons, 2002-03 Spurs, 1989-90 Pistons and 1984-85 Lakers.

So you don't need a blistering start to win a title, but history suggests a slow start is crippling.

How Did Recent Warriors Title Teams Start?

The Warriors started very strong in all four of their recent championship seasons.

The 2021-22 Warriors were 21-4. The 2017-18 Dubs were 19-6. The 2016-17 Warriors were 21-4. And the 2014-15 Warriors were 22-3.

Of those title teams, the worst final regular-season record was 53-29 by the 2021-22 Warriors. That team shockingly had a 7-16 stretch from early February to late March. The Dubs still managed the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference because they had a 41-13 record before the swoon started.

Why the Warriors Should Want a Top-3 Seed

In the last 55 years, only one team seeded lower than third as won the championship. That was the 1994-95 Houston Rockets, who won the title despite being the Western Conference's sixth seed with a 47-35 record.

That Rockets team is also the only one since 1980 with a regular-season winning percentage lower than 63 percent to win it all.

The only title teams since 1980 with 53 or fewer wins in a full regular season are the 1994-95 Rockets (47), 2005-06 Heat (52), 2022-23 Nuggets (53) and 2021-22 Warriors (53).

Can the Dubs Follow the Footsteps of the 2022-23 Nuggets?

That title-winning Nuggets team started 14-10, and then it won 19 of its next 22 games to get to 33-13.

The Warriors need to have a similar run at some point, and now is as good a time as ever.

Golden State is as healthy as it has been all season. Ten of its next 18 games are against teams under .500, and 14 of its next 20 games are at home.

Expect the Warriors to climb the Western Conference standings in the next month-plus. Getting into the top three by the All-Star break is unlikely with OKC, Denver, Houston, San Antonio and the Lakers all having 17-plus wins already, but a hot stretch from Golden State would at least put it in position to get there late in the season.