Pros and Cons of Warriors' Starting Lineup Steve Kerr Is 'Leaning Toward'

I go over the strengths and weaknesses before deciding whether it's the correct lineup choice

Yaxel Lendborg and Stephen Curry | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On Monday, Steve Kerr told reporters he's "leaning toward" starting Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg and Draymond Green for the regular-season opener.

These five have started the last two preseason games in which the Warriors played their rotation players. Of course this lineup has never played in the regular season—Lendeborg is a rookie—but the quartet of Curry, Podz, Santos and Green posted a plus-16.2 net rating last year, per Cleaning the Glass.

Let's go over the pros and cons of the Warriors' expected starting lineup.

Pros

Forward size should help defense and rebounding

Santos (6'7") and Lendeborg (6'9") give the Warriors positional size on the wing that they haven't had in years.

That will help in a number of ways.

For one, Green will have an easier time quarterbacking a defense that isn't facing size mismatches all over the court.

But the lineup should also thrive on the glass.

Though Podz is a normal-sized shooting guard at 6'4", he's a plus rebounder for his position. Lendeborg has been rebounding everything in sight this preseason (28 rebounds in 64 minutes).

Surprisingly, the quartet of Curry, Podz, Santos and Green had a 100th percentile defensive rebounding rate without Lendeborg last season. If anyting, inserting Lendeborg as the fifth person in those lineups should help Golden State's defensive rebounding.

Offensive efficiency

The Curry, Podz, Santos and Green lineups last year had an effective field-goal percentage of 61.0, which ranked in the 99th percentile. Though preseason defenses aren't as good as regular-season defenses, Lendeborg has shown he has the potential to help that percentage.

His effective field-goal percentage is 64.2 percent in four preseason games.

In general, the Warriors offense looks better when Curry and Green are surrounded by three players who can shoot, pass and drive.

Podz, Santos and Lendeborg can do all three, and early indications show Lendeborg will be a major plus as a driver.

Lendeborg's driving ability should open up more good looks for the others, which should lead to even more efficient offense.

Cons

Turnover rate

This Warriors team will have issues with turnovers no matter who they start. Jimmy Butler is easily their best player at suppressing turnovers, and he's out for at least half the season (ACL).

With that said, the Warriors have options to start a less turnover-prone lineup.

The most radical solution is to have Green come off the bench, as he had the highest turnover rate in the league last year.

But for better or worse, Kerr doesn't seem to be seriously considering having Green come off the bench.

What Kerr could do instead is have Santos come off the bench, as Santos is also turnover-prone and Santos-Green lineups had a 16.9 turnover percentage last year (9th percentile).

Just from the perspective of taking care of the ball, a starting lineup with Al Horford in for Santos would be better.

Free-throw rate

The Curry, Podz, Santos and Green lineups last year had a free-throw rate that ranked in the 3rd percentile.

Lendeborg should help that number, but his presence alone won't make this lineup above average at drawing fouls.

Once again, the Warriors would have to consider having Green come off the bench to improve their starting lineup's free-throw rate.

On the bright side, lineups with Butler and Lendeborg could lead to above-average free-throw rates, which have been hard to come by for the Warriors over the last several years.

On-ball defense

Between Curry, Podz, Santos and Lendeborg, you can make the case that none will be an above-average on-ball defender this season.

Green is both a great on-ball defender and team defender, and he can clean up a lot of mistakes with his incredible defensive instincts.

But if the dam is breaking every play, he can't cover up all the holes.

The other two cons feel like things the Warriors should live with. But if the on-ball defense becomes a nightmare, the Warriors will have to pivot to getting De'Anthony Melton in the lineup for Podz, Santos or Lendeborg.

Kerr Picks Correct Five

What makes this lineup exciting is its offensive potential.

Curry, Podz, Santos and Lendeborg are the four best currently healthy Warriors on offense. They will cause defenses problems.

Green's passing will be weaponized playing with the other four.

On the less glamorous end, Green will be relied on heavily—perhaps unfairly so—to guard centers and help put out fires starting by poor point-of-attack defense.

There's a chance the defense craters to the point where Kerr has to switch things up. But for now, I think it is the team's best bet.