Warriors' Kawhi Leonard, Trey Murphy III Trade Dilemma Has Clear Answer

The Golden State Warriors have two major trade targets this offseason in Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard and Pelicans forward Trey Murphy III.

ESPN's Anthony Slater reported that Murphy is "more obtainable" than he was at the trade deadline when the Warriors' interest in him was rebuffed.

Meanwhile, Yahoo Sports' Kevin O'Connor said Thursday that the Warriors "still want" Leonard after they made a push for him at the trade deadline.

Of course, we can't know how much draft capital each player will go for.

But if the draft capital cost is pretty close, the Warriors should target Murphy over Leonard.

Why Murphy Is the Better Bet

The main reason the Warriors should target Murphy is his injury history is much less problematic than Leonard's.

The 26-year-old has missed 93 games in his five-year career, so he doesn't have a clean bill of health.

But you can at least reasonably expect Murphy to be healthy for a playoff run.

Leonard didn't make it through the 2021, 2023 or 2024 playoffs before suffering an injury he couldn't come back from. He missed the entire 2021-22 season with a torn ACL, and he missed almost all of the 2017-18 season with a quad injury after missing the last three games of the 2017 Western Conference Finals with an ankle injury from the Zaza Pachulia closeout.

Leonard also missed 45 games in the 2024-25 season, but he had one of the most healthy seasons of the last decade of his career in 2025-26, missing 17 regular-season games before losing in the play-in tournament.

Leonard turns 35 at the end of June. He's not likely to suddenly play 65 games per season with his history.

That's likely why the Clippers front office considered selling high on him at the 2026 trade deadline. The next big injury always feels like it's just around the corner.

To be clear, Leonard is a much better player than Murphy, and he might be cheaper to acquire too.

But the advantages of Murphy, aside from health, are:

- He is under contract for two more seasons than Leonard is
- Acquiring Leonard would likely cost Jimmy Butler (for money-matching purposes), whereas acquiring Murphy likely wouldn't
- Murphy would have more trade value in future seasons for the Warriors to recoup picks they traded for him

Projecting the Draft Capital Cost of Each

I speculated during the 2025-26 season that the Pelicans would want three unprotected first-round picks for Murphy, but I've since wondered if that's a bit steep if one of the selections the Pelicans are getting is the 2026 No. 11 pick.

After all, The Stein Line's Jake Fischer reported that New Orleans is "very interested" in trading for a 2026 lottery pick.

So if I were the Warriors, I'd see if the Pelicans bite on a draft package that includes the 2026 first-round, a future unprotected first-round pick and a future unprotected first-round pick swap (along with Draymond Green for money-matching purposes if he opts in).

As for Leonard, considering his contract, age and injury history, the most I'd give up is two first-round picks with no swaps (along with Butler for money-matching purposes).

If Murphy costs just one more first-round pick swap, he'd be the better value play.

If the Pelicans demand two more first-round picks for Murphy than the Clippers do for Leonard, then the Warriors should lean toward the Leonard trade.

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