Warriors Must Avoid Jordan Poole Mistake with Brandin Podziemski

After winning the 2022 NBA championship, the Golden State Warriors had a Jordan Poole decision to make.

They could either let the scoring guard play out the 2022-23 season without a contract extension knowing he'd be a restricted free agent in the 2023 offseason, or they could finalize a contract extension immediately as a sign of good faith.

They did the latter, and it ended up being a regrettable choice.

Poole signed a four-year extension worth up to $140 million, but he ended up regressing in the 2022-23 season. Whether a regression was inevitable or was a result of Draymond Green's punch is a common debate, but the bottom line is the Dubs knew they had overpaid Poole by the end of the 2022-23 season.

That's why they chose to salary-dump him for Chris Paul, basically losing him for nothing because they let Paul walk in free agency the following summer.

Brandin Podziemski is extension-eligible for the next month-and-a-half. The Warriors must avoid making a similar mistake with him.

No Incentive for Extension Now Unless It's Team-Friendly

If the Warriors can get Podz to agree to a team-friendly extension, they would be justified doing it now.

In this case, team-friendly means $16 million to $17 million in average annual value.

Anything more than that is a risk not worth taking.

For one, committing that money now limits how much cap space the Dubs will have next offseason. They would be better off not signing Stephen Curry or Podz to an extension this offseason to have more options in the next season's free agency.

On top of that, Podz could regress like Poole did and actually lose leverage in contract talks.

Of course, Podz could have a breakout season and be worth more than he is now. But keep in mind how difficult it is for restricted free agents to get paid these days. Podz will need a team to clear cap space for a huge offer sheet, which might not happen.

So even in the event Podz has his best season in 2026-27, the Warriors probably won't get put in a position where they are forced into either overpaying him or losing him for nothing.

Podz Should Avoid Poole Drop-Off, but Extension Can Wait

There's less risk in giving Podz an extension now from a performance perspective.

Due to being a poor defender, Poole's value is tied entirely to his offense. When he's going through an inefficient spell, he has trouble helping his team.

Meanwhile, Podz makes an impact on both ends of the floor, which is reflected in his positive net rating over his first three seasons (via Cleaning the Glass):

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
Poole	+0.2	-0.9	+4.2
Podz	+6.2	+6.8	+2.9

The Warriors have been a better defensive team with Podz on the floor in each season of his career. All evidence suggests he'll continue to be a plus defender in the future.

Where Podz can make a jump is offensively. He averaged 18.1 points per game over the last two months of the 2025-26 season.

I'm not expecting him to sustain that for a whole season, especially considering he should get fewer touches when Curry is healthy. Where he lands in points per game will play a big role in negotiations.

Perhaps Podz will play well enough to get a Christian Braun contract, but the Warriors should try to get him locked up for a smaller AAV to give themselves more future flexibility.

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