Warriors' Starting Lineup, Rotation Projection vs. Suns with Santos, Horford Out

The Golden State Warriors will be without Gui Santos and Al Horford for Monday's game against the Suns at Chase Center.

Brandon WIlliams is questionable with a quad contusion.

Santos' absence leaves a hole in the starting lineup and at the forward spot in general.

The projection below is how I would make the rotation.

Starting Lineup (First 5 Mins of 1st, 3rd Qs)

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: De'Anthony Melton
SF: Brandin Podziemski
PF: Yaxel Lendeborg
C: Draymond Green

Look, I get that it's risky to start a three-guard lineup in the NBA. It's especially risky when your center is 6'6". But hear me out.

Last year, lineups with Curry, Melton and Podz had a plus-17.7 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. That was over a pretty big sample size of 199 possessions.

The more simplistic argument is that these are the Warriors' five best healthy players for this game.

If Steve Kerr wants more size, he could put Georges Niang in for Melton, or he could put Charles Bassey in for Melton and slide Green to forward.

But with Melton shooting the three the way he is (52.8 percent), he's simply too valuable on both ends of the floor to not start.

Next 3 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs

Lineup: Curry, Richard, Niang, Green, Ike

Graham Ike gets the call here first, but as you'll see below, Charles Bassey actually gets more total minutes in this projection. Both played well in the first game against Phoenix.

The only healthy traditional forwards with standard contracts for the Warriors are Lendeborg, Green and Georges Niang. Expect Niang to match or exceed his season high in playing time, which was 23 minutes in the first matchup against the Suns.

Last 4 Minutes of 1st and 3rd Qs

Lineup: Williams/Cryer, Podz, Niang, Lendeborg, Bassey

If Williams is active, he will get the backup point guard minutes like he always does. If not, I have LJ Cryer getting those.

Here's great sign for the Warriors: In the minutes that have Podz and Lendeborg on the court and Curry off the court, the Dubs have a plus-16.0 net rating.

First 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs

Lineup: Curry, Melton, Richard, Green, Ike

It's another three-guard lineup, but once again, there's history that it works. Lineups with Curry, Melton and Richard had a plus-30.8 net rating last year.

Next 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs

Lineup: Williams/Cryer, Podz, Niang, Lendeborg, Bassey

The Warriors go right back to the lineup they are playing at the end of the first and third quarters.

Closing Lineup (Last 4 Mins of 2nd and 4th Qs)

Lineup: Curry, Melton, Podz, Lendeborg, Green

The Dubs finish with the same small lineup that they started. The Suns' projected starting and closing lineup has heights of 6'4", 6'5", 6'7", 6'7" and 7'1". This Warriors' lineup has heights of 6'2", 6'2", 6'4", 6'6" and 6'9".

Rebounding could be an issue for Golden State, but the hope that the collective two-way impact of this quartet makes up for the size issues.

Minutes Distribution

Lendeborg: 34
Podz: 34
Curry: 32
Green: 32
Melton: 26
Niang: 22
Williams/Cryer: 16
Bassey: 16
Richard: 14
Ike: 14

Final Thoughts

Gary Payton II's net rating this season is minus-17.2. My guess is Kerr will get him between 10 and 20 minutes Monday like he has in six of seven games this season, but I'd have him not playing this game.

Lendeborg had the best game of his career Sunday, finishing with 37 points in 34 minutes. Podz also had a solid game, scoring 17 points in 37 minutes. Kerr will lean on both again, but it will be interesting to see if he limits their minutes at all on a back-to-back.

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