Wizards Mailbag: What is a Realistic Win Total

The Washington Wizards are going to be one of the most intriguing teams to watch this upcoming season. They have all the tools to be a potential 50-win team. On the other hand, there is a very real chance they will not win more than 35 games next season. So with all these variables in play, what is a realistic record for the Wizards this season?

X-Factors

Mar 8, 2026; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Washington Wizards forward Anthony Davis (23) watches during the first half against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Let's start with the X-Factors for the season. The biggest one will be health and injuries. To put it simply, if Anthony Davis misses 50 games, it will be tough to be a winning team. If he plays 60 games, then there is a good chance this team makes the playoffs without having to play through the play-in.

Then you have Trae Young. He has not been known to be injury-prone, but he missed a significant amount of time last season. It is safe to assume he will play close to 70 games, which alone elevates the win total. If he misses half the season, though, the win total will drop again.

Alex Sarr also has to stay healthy, as without his defense this team will really suffer in the paint. The Wizards need 60 games out of him this season.

The other X-Factor is the development of young players. How is AJ Dybantsa going to look in his rookie season? It will be a learning curve, but he cannot have 40/30 shooting splits if the team expects to win.

Jun 25, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards first round draft pick and number one overall pick AJ Dybantsa poses for a photo with his jersey during a press conference at InterContinental Hotel. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kyshawn George also has to learn to be consistent. Some of his inconsistency came from being guarded by opposing teams' best defenders last season. He was the first option for most of the season, and after his hot start, teams focused on him in their scouting reports. As either the fifth starter or first off the bench, his consistency should improve.

The bench unit of young players also needs to show out. Bilal Coulibaly has to improve his three-point shot. Tre Johnson needs to become a better defender. Bub Carrington needs to finish better. Will Riley needs to hone his point guard skills. A ton of the record simply depends on how the youth develops and plays this season.

Worst Case Scenario: 32-50

Best Case Scenario: 54-28

Realistic: 42-40

Too many factors make it hard to predict this team. It is the wildest team to predict because of their youth and injury concerns. If everything goes perfectly, this is a 54-win team. If everything goes wrong, they only scrape together 32 wins. Meeting in that middle ground, this is a 42-win team that is sitting 8-11 in the conference.

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