Safe or surprise? Breaking down Round 1 options for teams in 2014 NFL draft
Aaron Donald (left) doesn't have the look of a top-five pick, but his talent is undeniable. (Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
There are an abundance of 2014 mock drafts out there to digest. This is not one of them.
Rather than follow the cut-and-dry mock draft format, our now-annual "Safe or Surprise" breakdown examines each team's surest route to success in Round 1 ... as well as a gamble that would take them off the beaten path. As such, you will notice some players repeating throughout the following post -- a safe pick at No. 2 might be just as safe at No. 6, for example.
Doug Farrar has handled all of the "Safe" possibilities, those that would be the most risk-free for the teams on the clock. Chris Burke has countered with 32 potential surprises, picks that would shake up the draft.
MORE: 2014 NFL Mock Draft | 2014 NFL draft needs: AFC | NFL draft needs: NFC
Safe route: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
It's a safe pick because Bridgewater is the most highly-developed quarterback in this draft class, no matter what various draft pundits and talking heads say to draw his stock down. He fills Houston's most glaring roster hole, and he does so immediately. Jadeveon Clowney would have more upside, but the Texans went 2-14 last season with J.J. Watt on the field, and Bridgewater gives new head coach Bill O'Brien the right kind of player to mold over time. -- Doug Farrar
Surprise route: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Texans owner Bob McNair called Jadeveon Clowney a "once-every-10-years" talent, and McNair's team clearly has to find a new quarterback at some point in the near future. Robinson, though, may have as much upside as anyone in this draft. For a rookie head coach, Bill O'Brien, who wants to run the football, Robinson has to be a possibility. -- Chris Burke
2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)
Safe route: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
The Rams are apparently going to give Sam Bradford another shot to try to succeed, which leaves the franchise to deal with several holes along its offensive line, including the left tackle position. Jake Long is coming back from ACL surgery, and it may be time to move on, anyway. Matthews doesn't have the athletic upside that Auburn's Greg Robinson does, but he can develop more than most people think, and he's as plug-and-play as anyone in this draft. If the Rams want to get past 7-9 and truly compete in the brutal NFL West, this is where they must start. -- DF
Surprise route: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
Are the Rams at all sold on Sam Bradford, coming off a knee injury and carrying a heavy contract? If not, then nabbing the draft's most NFL-ready QB -- either here or if Bridgewater happens to slide to No. 13 -- could signal a sea change for the franchise while also keeping its 2014 playoff dreams alive. -- CB
Safe route: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
Yes, the Jags need a quarterback in the draft ... but each of the top three guys has supposed dings, and when you're taking a franchise-definer with the third overall pick, you'd best be sure, especially after the Blaine Gabbert fiasco. One thing is for sure -- you put Clowney in Gus Bradley's defensive fronts and he'll have the chance to really disrupt in the short term, and over time. -- DF
Surprise route: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Not really a stunner given Watkins' obvious, immense talent, but the general consensus has Jacksonville aiming for a franchise QB or getting Gus Bradley his impact pass rusher at No. 3. Watkins and Cecil Shorts together would form a dynamic pairing, even if there's not really anyone to throw them the ball. -- CB
Safe route: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
The Browns might take a quarterback with their fourth pick, or they could very well go with the best position player available and take their future quarterback with the pick they received from Indianapolis in the Trent Richardson trade. Whoever's throwing the ball in Cleveland in 2014 would be very, very happy to have Josh Gordon and Watkins as his primary targets. -- DF
Surprise route: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
One of the more extreme longshots in our Cover-Two (though, that's the point), Matthews' arrival likely would push current Cleveland RT Mitchell Schwartz inside to guard. A need? No. But Matthews stands out as arguably the safest bet in a draft full of unknowns. -- CB
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Safe route: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Robinson needs some work in pass protection and overall fundamentals, but his freakish overall ability makes him a safe top-five selection. He's a rare run-blocker, and he could start in the NFL at guard, moving outside later in time. Put simply, the Raiders need young talent -- and there aren't too many players in this class with more of it. -- DF
Surprise route: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Hard to see Donald, even for all his disruptive ability up front, climbing over all the QBs, WR, offensive tackles and pass rushers on the Raiders' wish list at No. 5. And yet ... well, Donald did as much damage in college as any soon-to-be rookie defensive player, Jadeveon Clowney included. -- CB
Safe route: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
There's already been a lot of talk and traction about Atlanta possibly trading up with Houston to grab the first overall pick, and general manager Thomas Dimitroff certainly has a history of bold moves. Dimitroff and assistant GM Scott Pioli went big on the defensive line in free agency with the acquisitions of Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai, but they're both inside guys, and the need for a pure pass rusher is obvious. The Falcons could stay put at six and hope Clowney drops -- and maybe he will -- but Clowney's clear dominance over all the possible picks at this position almost makes trading up the safe choice. -- DF
Surprise route: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
Pulling the trigger here, just three drafts after an aggressive trade for Julio Jones, really would require some thinking outside the box. That said, the dream of a Jones-Evans-Roddy White trio has obvious benefits, and White's contract expires after the 2014 season. -- CB
Safe route: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
The Bucs have second-year prospect Mike Glennon and veteran Josh McCown to shore up the quarterback position in the short term, and what they really need is a true downfield weapon to complement Vincent Jackson and take Tampa Bay's passing game to a new level. Evans has the size and speed to be one of the best receivers in the league, and once he gets the NFL route tree down, he'll be a very tough man to stop. Being in a situation where opposing defenses have to key elsewhere would certainly make that easier. -- DF
Surprise route: C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
The Tampa-2 defense that Lovie Smith frequently leans on calls for a versatile linebacker in the middle. No player better fits the bill among the '14 draft class than Mosley, who could play any number of different LB spot across a variety of defensive constructs. -- CB
Safe route: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
While Manziel would be a risky pick for a lot of teams, the Vikings have a clear need at quarterback, and things set up pretty nicely in Minnesota for a player of Manziel's variable talents. His deep ball would be helped by the play-action concepts set up with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and the different coverage concepts required to deal with Manziel's combination of mobility and arm talent would conversely open things up for Peterson. And, think of the option elements that could be added in, should offensive coordinator Norv Turner choose to sprinkle them in. Turner would be an estimable quarterback tutor for Manziel, to be sure. -- DF
Surprise route: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Minnesota already boasts one of the better young tight ends in the NFL: Kyle Rudolph. How about doubling-down at the position? Ebron and Rudolph together would give the Vikings an unmatched TE tandem, thereby challenging defenses and opening space for Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings. -- CB
Safe route: Calvin Pryor, FS, Louisville
Losing Jarius Byrd in free agency leaves the kind of hole that isn't easy to fill, given Byrd's range in coverage. But Pryor could do just that -- and very well from the start. Even a cursory look at his college tape shows a player totally committed to disruption of the passing game, with a remarkable level of effort that's seen on every down. -- DF
Surprise route: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
There was speculation earlier in April, after Buffalo traded for Mike Williams, that Stevie Johnson could be on the chopping block. Drafting a WR in the top 10 probably would seal Johnson's fate. A quartet of Williams, Beckham, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin would allow the Bills to mix and match personnel -- and do so at a cheaper rate than if Johnson sticks around. -- CB
10. Detroit Lions
Safe route: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Asked recently about Chris Houston's future with the team after Houston posted perhaps the worst season of his career in coverage, new Lions head coach Jim Caldwell was noncommittal at best. The best way to remedy Detroit's longtime deficit at this position is to add young blood, and few defenders bring more pure athleticism to the position than Gilbert. With legit 4.4 speed and smooth coverage instincts, he'd provide an immediate upgrade. -- DF
Surprise route: Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
While DeAndre Levy actually excelled for Detroit from the weak-side LB spot last year, he entered the NFL looking more like a strong-side guy. Add a speedy tackling machine like Shazier to the mix and Levy could fill the latter role, providing the Lions with a formidable group. -- CB
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11. Tennessee Titans
Safe route: Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
The Titans are moving to a hybrid 3-4 defense with new coordinator Ray Horton, and though they picked up Shaun Phillips in free agency, that's a short-term solution. Barr, who has all the potential in the world but is still learning the nuances of the position, could become a pass-rushing monster over time in Horton's aggressive concepts. -- DF
Surprise route: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
This probably will not happen, but it definitely could. The Titans have yet to pick up the fifth-year option on Jake Locker's contract, meaning that 2014 sets up as his final stand. If he flops, Tennessee will look elsewhere for '15 and beyond. So why not nab a QB if one of the big three (Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel) falls here? -- CB
12. New York Giants
Safe route: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
While New York's needs on the offensive line are obvious, it's a bit of a crapshoot at tackle after Matthews and Richardson. The G-Men also lost defensive tackle Linval Joseph to the Vikings, and while Donald isn't as big as Joseph, he has the kind of interior disruptive ability that comes along once every few draft classes. -- DF
Surprise route: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
The Giants have needs on both lines, as well as at wide receiver, running back, tight end and linebacker. But passing on arguably the top cornerback -- and a big, athletic, physical one at that -- would be tough to swallow. Gilbert, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara together would give New York an edge against even the toughest offenses. -- CB
13. St. Louis Rams
Safe route: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, FS, Alabama
Losing Cortland Finnegan to the Dolphins in free agency wasn't exactly a roster hit, given the poor quality of Finnegan's coverage, but there is now a sure need in St. Louis' improving defense for a rangy safety who can do everything from playing center field to helping with reckless run support. Clinton-Dix has the skillset to check off every box. -- DF
Surprise route: Xavier Su'a-Filo, G, UCLA
The surprise is more where this pick is being made (No. 13 overall) than the pick itself. A guard may be in the Rams' draft plans, even with Rodger Saffold potentially slotting in at that position. Here, they get the best one available. -- CB
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14. Chicago Bears
Safe route: Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
The Bears took pretty much every defensive end and hybrid defensive end off the market in free agency, but last year's defense was a sieve up the middle, and that issue isn't quite controlled yet. Nix, with his huge frame and penetrative ability, might turn into the best option Chicago has had at the position since Tommie Harris' glory days. -- DF
Surprise route: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
About 100 percent of mock drafts have had the Bears leaning one of two ways at No. 14: defensive tackle or the secondary. As with the argument for Ebron-to-Minnesota earlier, the appeal here would be a two-TE system (Ebron and Martellus Bennett) that would be near-impossible to defend with the attention paid outside to Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. -- CB
Safe route: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
General manager Kevin Colbert and coordinator Dick LeBeau prefer long, athletic ends who can hold the point in the base 3-4 and move inside for passing downs. Ealy's tape isn't explosive by any means, but he's consistent, and he fits the model. And that's more that can be said of some players the Steelers have tried at the position recently. -- DF
Surprise route: Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
Pittsburgh even considering this pick would be an indictment of 2013 fourth-rounder Shamarko Thomas. Troy Polamalu's career in winding down, though, and newcomer Mike Mitchell may not be a long-term answer. -- CB
16. Dallas Cowboys
Safe route: Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Losing tackle Jason Hatcher in free agency was bad enough for the cap-strapped Cowboys; losing him to the division rival Redskins was even worse. Hageman has the talent to replace Hatcher as a pass-rushing interior force if he continues to learn the intricacies of the position. -- DF
Surprise route: Zach Martin, G/T, Notre Dame
Ignoring the Johnny Manziel-to-Dallas chatter for a moment ... the Cowboys have severe issues on defense, from the line on back through the secondary. They're also shy on the O-line, with one guard spot up for grabs and RT Doug Free's contract expiring after 2014. -- CB
17. Baltimore Ravens
Safe route: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
John Harbaugh has said that assistant coach Juan Castillo was the fall guy for the problems along Baltimore's offensive line last year, but one thing's for sure -- the Ravens won't go far in 2014 without a running game, and they barely had one in '13. Lewan should be available at this spot, and he has the physical skill -- if not always the straight head -- to help a line in clear need of improvement. -- DF
Surprise route: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
An overkill luxury pick that may still make some sense. The Ravens have their top two corners locked into place in Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith. There's minimal depth behind them, however, and no clear starting slot corner with Corey Graham gone. -- CB
18. New York Jets
Safe route: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Grabbing Eric Decker in free agency means that the Jets' receiver needs are a bit less glaring, and it's a deep class at that position. However, Rex Ryan's defense is in clear regression at cornerback, and Fuller, with his athleticism and consistency, could turn that around in a hurry. -- DF
Surprise route: Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
Maybe a round earlier than the Jets would like to address their need for a pass rusher, but if they're high on Ford and a run on either CBs or offensive players occurs before this slot, they might just go for broke in the top-20. -- CB
19. Miami Dolphins
Safe route: Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA
Branden Albert should be able to fill the void left by Jonathan Martin at left tackle, but in Miami's system, a left guard with both toughness and agility is needed. Richie Incognito provided neither on the field in 2013, his off-field disasters aside. Moving from Incognito and his replacements to Su'a-Filo -- the best guard in class -- allows Miami to potentially grab the single biggest upgrade in the first round of this draft. -- DF
Surprise route: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
Obviously, there are more pressing issues in Miami (offensive line comes to mind). The Dolphins still could use a big-play threat alongside Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace -- Brandon Gibson hardly blew anyone away last season. -- CB
Safe route: Dee Ford, DE, Auburn
The Cards had one of the NFL's best defenses last year under first-year coordinator Todd Bowles, but younger pass rushers must be procured if that's to continue. In a hybrid front, Ford's relative lack of size wouldn't be a major concern, while his speed around the edge could be displayed in full. -- DF
Surprise route: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
A few people have started connecting the dots here because of Carson Palmer's age (34) and contract situation (2015 is a voidable year on his contract), as well as Bruce Arians' preference for a strong-armed QB. Carr could hold the backup job for a year and then take the reins next season. -- CB
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Safe route: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
Like a lot of recent Alabama prospects, Mosley has some medical red flags to overcome. But also like most players under Nick Saban's watch, he's got a very solid understanding of NFL-level defensive concepts. Mosley's versatility and headiness would greatly help a Packers defense in need of a dominant presence at the inside linebacker position. -- DF
Surprise route: Marqise Lee, WR, USC
The Packers have at least one James Jones replacement option in Jarrett Boykin, who played well given some chances in 2013. Lee would be an upgrade and would provide another sure-handed, catch-and-run option for Aaron Rodgers. -- CB
Safe route: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
If there's a run on quarterbacks up top, it's possible that one of the top three cornerbacks -- Fuller, Gilbert or Dennard -- could drop into the high 20s. And the Eagles would be wise to jump on that possible scenario. Right now, their best cornerback is Brandon Boykin, and he primarily works in the slot. -- DF
Surprise route: Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
Bennie Logan may have a firm grip on the starting NT role for the moment. There is minimal depth backing him or any other members of the starting front. Nix would push for Logan's job, plus has enough versatility to help out and play a little 3-4 end if need be. -- CB
Safe route: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
Throughout Andy Reid's time as the head coach of the Eagles, Reid always wanted to add vertical concepts to his base West Coast offense, concepts which made DeSean Jackson a star. Now, Reid has a situation in Kansas City where he needs that kind of speed receiver, and Beckham provides an intriguing combination of explosiveness and route awareness. -- DF
Surprise route: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
The Chiefs are counting on Anthony Fasano and 2013 draft pick Travis Kelce to bounce back from injury-marred 2013 seasons. Nevertheless, Andy Reid would not decline another athletic TE. His offense relies heavily on that position, both in the run and pass games. -- CB
Safe route: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
With two starting cornerbacks on the wrong side of 30 (Terence Newman, Adam Jones) and another coming off another Achilles tendon surgery (Leon Hall), it's clear that the Bengals need new blood at the position. Verrett could be a relative bargain at 24 with his speed, coverage ability and toughness. Size is a concern, but if Verrett were over 6-feet, he wouldn't last beyond the 15th pick. -- DF
Surprise route: Any quarterback
If the Bengals feel that putting some heat on Andy Dalton is the best option for their future, here's their opportunity. Should someone like Bridgewater be available at this spot, the Bengals' time on the clock will be pressure-packed. -- CB
Safe route: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
If Ealy falls this far because of his relatively consistent (but not always amazing) tape, San Diego will run to the podium. The Chargers need help everywhere from outside linebacker to defensive tackle, and Ealy has the versatility to fit in different packages. -- DF
Surprise route: Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
Personally, I'm still not sold on the idea of Latimer as a Round 1 guy. On the other hand, a landing spot like San Diego would be really intriguing. The Chargers struck gold with Keenan Allen in the 2013 third round; they have to find someone capable of sharing the load with him. -- CB
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26. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)
Safe route: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
Taking a quarterback with the fourth overall pick is going to be a risk in this class, but selecting Carr later in the first round could be a great get for all involved. There would be less pressure on Carr, the Browns could get at least one extra target for him and Carr could develop over time into the franchise quarterback Brandon Weeden never was. Carr has the arm and mobility, though there will definitely be some schematic learning to do at the NFL level. -- DF
Surprise route: Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
Opinions vary on Borland, who is far less of an athletic marvel than many in this draft class. An opinion that is unwavering: The Browns would like better production from the LB spot held by Craig Robertson last season. Borland and Karlos Dansby together would stuff the middle. -- CB
Safe route: Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
Roby has had some off-field issues, but at his best, he's the kind of press corner who can play inside and outside and attack with force and speed. He'd be an outstanding addition to Rob Ryan's defense, and an immediate upgrade over the beleaguered Corey White. -- DF
Surprise route: Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State
The Saints are not known for reaching along the O-line, and don't figure to do so even with Brian de la Puente's departure adding a little uncertainty up front. But in Richburg, they could bring in a plug-and-play starter. -- CB
Safe route: Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
Yes, the Panthers need receivers, but they can find talent at that position later in the draft. What they need even more is a mauler who can fit in Carolina's power offense and protect Cam Newton's blind side. Kouandjio is a pure power guy who wouldn't fit at left tackle in every scheme, but he's a natural fit for what this team likes to do. -- DF
Surprise route: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
Wide receiver? Sure. Offensive tackle? Definitely. The Panthers also will be on the hunt for another DE somewhere in this draft, particularly with franchise-tagged Greg Hardy possibly bolting after 2014. Given this draft's depth at receiver and depending on how many OTs are taken before this spot, the Panthers might bolster their D early. -- CB
Safe route: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Throughout the last few seasons, the idea in Foxboro has been to pair a dynamic rushing attack with a two-tight end attack and beat opponents into submission with matchup nightmares. Aaron Hernandez presented the Pats with a unique set of nightmares, and with Rob Gronkowski's ongoing injury concerns, it's time to reset. Ebron has the route awareness, seam speed and blocking ability to be a great fit. -- DF
Surprise route: Joel Bitonio, G/T, Nevada
The Patriots are on track to bring back their entire starting offensive line. Is that a good thing? Sebastian Vollmer missed significant time in 2013 due to injury, and both Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly struggled. Bitonio (like current Patriot Marcus Cannon) would provide flexibility up front. -- CB
Safe route: Marquise Lee, WR, USC
Lee has been downgraded by some because of his injury history and supposed lack of command of an NFL route tree, but he's faster upfield than people seem to think, and he's been relatively consistent when healthy -- especially when you consider that the Trojans haven't exactly been stacked at quarterback lately. Lee would provide stability for a 49ers offense that looks pretty solid when Michael Crabtree is healthy -- and anything but when he's not. -- DF
Surprise route: Dominique Easley, DT, Florida
One year after gambling on Tank Carradine, would the 49ers go back to the post-ACL injury well? They are in position to ease along a high-upside player like Easley, who might be a top-10 pick had it not been for that injury. -- CB
31. Denver Broncos
Safe route: David Yankey, OG, Stanford
With Zane Beadles off to Jacksonville, and a predominant need to protect Peyton Manning at all costs, the defending AFC champs would do well to pick Yankey if he's on the board here. He's not an elite athlete, but he understands every blocking concept possible, and he's played outside at tackle as well -- which the Broncos might consider with former right tackle Orlando Franklin trying his hand at guard this upcoming season. -- DF
Surprise route: Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
A stockpile of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders (with Andre Caldwell off the bench) leaves Denver in enviable shape at receiver. Robinson, who can line up outside or in the slot, would provide an incredible No. 4 option and a fallback option should Wes Welker suffer an injury or leave as a free agent after 2014. -- CB
32. Seattle Seahawks
Safe route: Zach Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame
Martin played left tackle for the Fighting Irish, but he projects better inside at the NFL level, because he doesn't set the edge very well, and he can lose leverage battles outside. However, he has the power and toughness to become a great guard, and that position is one of desperate need for Seattle. It's also possible that Martin could be tasked with replacing former right tackle Breno Giacomini. -- DF
Surprise route: Dri Archer, RB/WR, Kent State
When a franchise boasts a roster as deep as the one the Super Bowl champs have, it can swing for the fences. Enter Archer, likely a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick, with the home-run ability and blazing speed to warrant consideration much earlier. He could be borderline unstoppable in this offense, as a sort of Percy Harvin Lite. -- CB
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