NFC West Win Totals: How Many Victories Will Each Team Have in 2020?
Home to five of the last eight NFC Champions, the NFC West is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle have all made recent trips to the Super Bowl, and Arizona is a team on the rise. Here is a breakdown of the NFC West win total options currently posted at William Hill.
Betting 101:
If you think Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers are going to win 11 or more games, you should bet the ‘Over’ on this prop. Conversely, if you think San Francisco regresses from last season, after winning the NFC West with a 13-3 record, “Under” is the best bet. The numbers in brackets are moneyline odds. Bettors need to wager $150 to earn a $100 profit if over is the winning side. A $100 wager on under returns a $130 profit if the 49ers win 10 or fewer games this season.
San Francisco 49ers - 10.5 Wins (Over -150; Under +130)
Following a four-year rebuild where San Francisco posted a 17-47 record, the 49ers won the NFC West with a 13-3 record last season. GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have built a powerhouse squad and the 49ers are favorites to win the division again this year.
Biggest Addition in Free Agency:
Travis Benjamin, Wide Receiver
San Francisco has concentrated on keeping the gang together during free agency. The 49ers re-signed several key players, including Arik Armstead and Jimmy Ward. Acquired in a mid-season trade with Denver, Emmanuel Sanders walked as a free agent and signed with New Orleans. The 49ers added Travis Benjamin, who spent the last four years with the Chargers. Benjamin is a speedy deep threat, as well as kick returner, and he will be used as a situational role player.
Draft Outlook:
Despite finishing second behind Baltimore last season, the 49ers have two picks in the first round. San Francisco acquired the 13th pick from Indianapolis, in a trade that sent DeForest Buckner to the Colts, and they have the 31st overall selection. Wide receiver and offensive line are pressing needs for the 49ers. The talent pool is deep at both positions, so a top prospect will be available to fill both needs.
2020 Schedule:
HOME: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington
AWAY: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets
Betting Advice:
By keeping the core group of starters together, San Francisco is well positioned to repeat as NFC West champions. How Jimmy Garoppolo rebounds from his poor performance during Super Bowl LIV is key to the 49ers posting double-digit wins. William Hill has juiced up the price on the over odds, but an 11-5 record feels about right for the 49ers.
Play: Over 10.5 Total Wins (-150)
Seattle Seahawks – 9.5 Wins (Over -120; Under +100)
Seattle posted its eighth consecutive winning season last year (they are 86-41-1 over that timeframe). Sitting at 11-2 after Week 13 action, Seattle was battling San Francisco for first place in the NFC West race. After losing running backs Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise to injury, the Seahawks finished second in the division with an 11-5 record. Russell Wilson led the Seahawks to five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and was easily the Hawks’ MVP.
Biggest Addition in Free Agency:
Quinton Dunbar, Cornerback (via trade)
Secondary play was a liability last season, as the Seahawks’ pass defense ranked bottom six and allowed 263.9 yards per game. Helping fill that need, Seattle acquired Quinton Dunbar from Washington for a fifth-round pick. This is a steal for the Seahawks, as Dunbar was one of the top ranked cornerbacks in the league last season.
Draft Outlook:
Miami (23) was the only team in the league with fewer sacks than the Seahawks (28) last year. Edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney hasn’t found a home on the free agent market and his return to Seattle is questionable. Even if Clowney does re-sign, the Seahawks need to bolster the defensive line. Despite his mobility, Wilson was sacked 48 times last season, so offensive line help will be a focus as well. Seattle picks 27th in the first round and has seven total selections.
2020 Schedule:
HOME: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets
AWAY: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington
Betting Advice:
As illustrated by their 405-398 score differential, Seattle played a lot of close contests last season. That includes five wins that were decided by four points or fewer. The Seahawks also lost four games at home for just the second time over the last eight seasons. Until the injury status of Carson and Penny is known, it’s tough to make a call on the Seahawks’ win total. If the backfield returns at full health, the ‘Hawks have a shot at reaching the 10-win plateau.
Play: Pass
Los Angeles Rams - 8.5 Wins (Over -140; Under +120)
Following two straight regular season titles, Los Angeles finished third in the NFC West with a 9-7 record. Playing behind a leaky offensive line, Jared Goff struggled during his third season as his TD-INT ratio went from 32-12 in 2018 to 22-16 last year. Los Angeles dropped from scoring 32.9 points per game in 2018 to 24.6 PPG last season. The Rams have question marks along the offensive line that need to be addressed.
Biggest Addition in Free Agency:
Leonard Floyd, Outside Linebacker
Departures have outweighed the gains during the 2020 free agency period for the Rams. One of the losses was Dante Fowler Jr., who set a career-high with 11.5 sacks last season. Looking to fill that hole, Los Angeles signed Leonard Floyd after the Chicago Bears released him. Floyd was the ninth overall pick during the 2016 draft but hasn’t lived up to expectations. Lining up with two-time DPOY Aaron Donald should help unlock Floyd’s full potential.
Draft Outlook:
Los Angeles doesn’t have a first-round draft pick after trading it to Jacksonville as part of the deal for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams’ first selection is the 20th pick in the second round and they have the 20th pick in the third round as well. There are several quality offensive linemen in the draft, so a prospect like Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) or Lucas Niang (TCU) may be available.
2020 Schedule:
HOME: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets
AWAY: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington
Betting Advice:
Running back Todd Gurley also had a down year in 2019 and he was picked up by Atlanta after the Rams released him. That leaves Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and John Kelly as the only running backs on the roster. I’m counting on the Rams defense being a dominating force, so nine wins is a reasonable projection for Los Angeles.
Play: Over 8.5 Wins (-140)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Wins (Over -140; Under +120)
While they made strides on offense, Arizona finished fourth in the NFC West for a second straight season. Quarterback Kyler Murray was the 2019 offensive Rookie of the Year after he posted 3,722 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also added 544 rushing yards and four scores on the ground. The Arizona defense allowed an NFL-worst 402 yards per game last season, and that’s the main reason for the Cardinals’ low win total.
Biggest Addition in Free Agency:
DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver (via trade)
Making the biggest offseason splash, Arizona acquired wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins from Houston in exchange for running back David Johnson plus the Cardinals’ 2020 second-round pick. Picking up Buffalo free agent Jordan Phillips adds a run-stopper on the defensive line. Arizona also signed Atlanta free agent linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who is a versatile defender. Campbell is a slight upgrade to the Cardinals’ pass defense that was regularly burned by tight ends last year.
Draft Outlook:
Arizona owns the eighth pick in the first round and won’t be on clock again until the eighth pick in the third round. Murray was sacked 52 times last season, so help along the offensive line is a pressing need for the Cardinals. Adding Hopkins allows GM Steve Keim to take a serious look at O-line prospects like Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton and Andrew Thomas. All three players are highly ranked and one or two of them should be available at pick No. 8.
2020 Schedule:
HOME: Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington
AWAY: Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets.
Betting Advice:
Arizona being tagged with a win total of 6.5 is somewhat surprising as the Cardinals also re-signed running back Kenyon Drake, so they have lots of weapons on offense. Home wins over the Lions, Dolphins and Washington, plus road wins against the Giants, Jets and Panthers would leave Arizona one win shy of the number. The Cardinals haven’t posted an 0-6 record in the NFC West since joining the division in 2002. I like the upstart Cards to win at least seven games.
Play: Over 6.5 Wins (-140)
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