NFL Week 18 Playoff-Clinching Scenarios, Coach Firings and No. 1 Pick Predictions
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We’re down to the final week of the regular season, and the NFL playoff picture is becoming clearer, with 11 of 14 spots filled. So far, the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Chargers and Ravens have secured playoff spots in the AFC, while the Eagles, 49ers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys and Giants have locked down spots in the NFC.
Entering Week 18, the AFC South and NFC East divisions are still at stake, too, as well as the top seed in both conferences.
Lawrence has a chance to lead the Jaguars to the AFC South title with a win against the Titans.
Maria Lysaker/USA TODAY Sports
The AFC's top seed is up in the air after the NFL officially canceled the Week 17 Monday Night Football game between the Bills and Bengals. That game was postponed after Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin suddenly collapsed. The two teams have already clinched spots in the playoffs, but their seeds have not yet been determined.
As of now, the AFC championship game will take place at a neutral site if the two teams do not have an equal number of games played during the regular season, and if the team could have been the top seed and hosted the game if they had played 17 games. Essentially, this only matters if it involves the Bills or Bengals and the top-seeded Chiefs.
Here are all the other playoff-clinching scenarios for this weekend.
AFC
Bills
- Clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye with a win against the Patriots, plus a Chiefs loss or tie OR with a tie, plus a Chiefs loss.
Chiefs
- Clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye with a win against the Raiders OR with a Bills loss to the Patriots OR with a tie, plus a Bills-Patriots tie.
Dolphins
- Clinch wild-card berth with a win over the Jets and a Patriots loss.
Jaguars
- Clinch AFC South with a win over the Titans.
- Clinch wild-card berth with a Steelers loss to the Browns, a Patriots loss to the Bills and a Dolphins loss to the Jets.
Patriots
- Clinch wild-card berth with a win over the Bills OR a Dolphins loss to the Jets, a Steelers loss to the Browns and a Titans loss to the Jaguars.
Steelers
- Clinch wild-card berth with a win over the Browns, a Patriots loss to the Bills and a Dolphins loss to the Jets.
Titans
- Clinch AFC South with a win over the Jaguars.
NFC
Eagles
- Clinch NFC East and No. 1 seed with a win over the Giants OR a Cowboys loss to the Commanders and a 49ers loss to Cardinals.
49ers
- Clinch No. 1 seed with a win over the Cardinals and an Eagles loss to the Giants.
Cowboys
- Clinch NFC East with a win over the Commanders and an Eagles loss to the Giants.
- Clinch NFC East and No. 1 seed with a win over the Commanders, an Eagles loss to Giants and a 49ers loss to Cardinals.
Lions
- Clinch wild-card berth with a win over the Packers and a Seahawks loss to the Rams.
Packers
- Clinch wild-card berth with a win over the Lions.
Seahawks
- Clinch wild-card berth with a win over the Rams and a Packers loss to the Lions.
So there are plenty of big games to focus on this week, and Albert and the MMQB staff will take you through Sunday’s slate, noting the best matchups and the story lines they’ll be watching.
Games of the week
Titans (7–9) at Jaguars (8–8), 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday: The Jags have won four in a row, five of six and six of eight, to position themselves to win their second division title since the turn of the century. Trevor Lawrence looks like we all thought he would look two years ago. And Jacksonville is home to a Titans team that’s lost six straight since a Thursday-night win against Green Bay a week before Thanksgiving. The Titans will be starting their third quarterback, Josh Dobbs, one who joined the team four days before Christmas. Easy, right? —Albert Breer
Patriots (8–8) at Bills (12–3), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Obviously, hearts and minds will be with Damar Hamlin throughout this one—how will the Bills respond in their first game action since Cincinnati? On the field, it’s one more chance for Buffalo to emphasize the Freaky Friday–type swap between these two franchises over the past 13 months. The Patriots haven’t looked like they belonged on the same field in the teams’ past two meetings (the “Perfect Game” last January and a defense-led drubbing in Foxborough on a Thursday night in December). Can Bill Belichick’s defense turn this game into enough of a slog for the Patriots’ embattled offense to keep pace? New England’s playoff chances depend on it. —Gary Gramling
Ravens (10–6) at Bengals (11–4), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: This game had the potential to be the best game on the Week 18 slate had Baltimore held on against Pittsburgh last week. Then the AFC North race was complicated by the fact that the Bengals’ game was suspended Monday night (for good reason). It is possible this game will be of little importance to Baltimore, if the NFL declares Bills-Bengals a no contest before they kick off. In that scenario, the Ravens would be unable to win the division, though they could still flip spots with the Chargers between the fifth and sixth seeds. The Bengals will try no matter what, with a chance to catch the Bills for the No. 2 seed. UPDATE: Now that we know the Bills-Bengals game will not be completed, the Ravens can’t win the division. But if they win (for a second time against Cincinnati this year), and the two teams meet in the wild-card round, the NFL has decided home field advantage will be determined by a coin toss. So that is a little more to play for as well. —Mitch Goldich
Giants (9-6-1) at Eagles (13–3), 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Philadelphia gets its third shot at winning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home field throughout the conference playoffs. The difference for this game—versus the previous two—is they should have Jalen Hurts back in the lineup (a shoulder injury suffered Week 15 has sidelined him). Beat the Giants, and those losses are simple speed bumps. If they lose, the Eagles might not even win the division, and failing to do that (Dallas can pass them) would drop them to the fifth seed in the NFC. One thing that might help Philly—the Giants are locked into the sixth seed, and Brian Daboll has hinted this week that he’ll rest some starters to prepare the team for the wild-card round. —A.B.
Lions (8–8) at Packers (8–8), 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: Are we sure nobody wants to play the Packers in the postseason? The Q-rating is great and all that, but this is basically an inverse of the past two editions: top-of-class special teams, shaky middle of the defense, loads of question marks on offense. They hammered a Vikings team that looked like it was playing on roller skates last week, but this four-game winning streak has been fueled heavily by special teams and turnover margin (+9 over four games, probably not sustainable!). We don’t know whether the Lions will have something to play for, but my guess is Dan Campbell would see spoiling the Packers’ season as more than enough motivation. —G.G.
Fantasy bold prediction of the week
Trevor Lawrence will be a top-five fantasy quarterback: Lawrence was awful for fans in fantasy championship week, scoring just 4.5 points in a meaningless game. This week’s game is for all the marbles, however, as a win over the Titans means a division title and a playoff berth. Tennessee has been awful against quarterbacks, too, allowing 28 touchdown passes and the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. If you’re playing in a Week 18 championship, Lawrence should lead you to a title. —Michael Fabiano
• Fabiano’s Week 18 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DST
Key questions
What is your one big prediction for Week 18?
Breer: The Rams will give the Seahawks all they can handle in Seattle—Sean McVay is 8–3 in his last 11 games against Pete Carroll, L.A. doesn’t have a draft pick to worry about (Detroit has its first-rounder) and I think the road team will be motivated to finish the season the right way. For what it’s worth, Baker Mayfield can summon some motivation due to Seattle showing no interest in him when it had a perceived quarterback need this offseason (the Seahawks knew a little more about how Geno Smith would play than the rest of us).
Gramling: The Texans win in Indy, one final insult for the Jeff Saturday–led Colts but also knocking Houston from the No. 1 pick in the draft. That selection would then go to the Bears, setting off a series of mindless Justin Fields vs. Bryce Young debates. (The talent-starved Bears, by the way, will do the right thing and trade out of the top spot to build around Fields—but the Texans ultimately lose out on Young, settling for Will Levis with the No. 2 pick.)
Goldich: The Lions will give it their all and put on a show. I do think the Seahawks will beat the Rams in the afternoon, eliminating Detroit from the playoff race before the nightcap. But Dan Campbell will still have his squad fighting to the final whistle, anyway, and I think it’ll go toe-to-toe with the Packers in a game that comes down to the final two minutes.
Which team most needs a win in Week 18?
Breer: The Titans. They fired their GM in midseason. Their offensive coordinator got a DUI after their last win. The roster is aging in spots. The owner seems restless. A win, and Tennessee takes home a division title, and it’s not far-fetched to think it might advance a round in the playoffs (with either the Chargers or the Ravens waiting in the first round, and that game in Nashville). I don’t think it’s unfair to say how we view the Titans, and even how they handle their quarterback and general manager situations after the season, could be colored by how Sunday goes.
Goldich: That depends. If the Cowboys beat the Commanders, then the answer is the Eagles, who have been atop the NFC standings from wire to wire but could fall all the way to the No. 5 seed. That would be a pretty disastrous ending to a dream regular season that started 13–1, with Super Bowl hopes building along the way. Obviously there are teams that need wins to stay alive and reach the playoffs. But an ending like that would just totally change the tenor of this season in Philadelphia, not to mention make the playoff path much more difficult.
Gramling: Beyond the literal sense, it’s the Patriots. The franchise is at a crossroads. If they’re outclassed by the Bills for a third consecutive time, not only does it end their season, but it raises a lot of questions about just what the future is for Belichick and Mac Jones. Does this franchise need a few small tweaks (say, an offensive coach to run the offense), or is it time for a full-on teardown in Foxborough?
How many coach openings do you expect to see after this weekend?
Breer: Seven. Indianapolis, Carolina and Denver are already open. Houston and Arizona are in play, too. And I think we see at least two more—out of a handful of possibilities—some obvious and some less so.
Gramling: Aside from the Panthers (vote Wilks/McAdoo 2023!), Broncos and Colts, two more jobs open up: Houston and a mystery team. (Arizona? New Orleans? Washington? Pete Carroll hangs ’em up?)
Goldich: After this weekend, only four: The three jobs currently open, plus the Texans’. But save room for one surprise to come later (such as Doug Pederson in 2020 and Sean Payton in ’21).
Alabama quarterback Young could be the No. 1 pick in April’s NFL draft.
Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports
If the Texans lock down the No. 1 pick, who should be the selection in April?
Breer: Here’s the thing—size will matter to some teams, and I suspect it will to the Texans, with GM Nick Caserio having been raised in a program (New England) that works off prototypes. Bryce Young checks off about every box. But if you’re talking about quarterbacks 6' and under, try finding any that made it without being 4.5 or faster in the 40. Drew Brees is the only one. And that’s without accounting for the fact that Young may weigh only 180 pounds. I love Young’s game. I just don’t know that Caserio can get around that part of it. So I’ll say the Texans either trade out or draft Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., who’s cleaner from a makeup standpoint than the very talented Jalen Carter of Georgia.
Gramling: They should take Young. Or if they want to trade out, cool—someone else can take Young. He’s a size outlier who, on tape, doesn’t seem to be limited by his size.
Goldich: Young. I’m not a mock draft guy, and I wouldn’t claim to have any real expertise on the prospects, but this team needs a quarterback. If there’s a real chance Young is a franchise QB, and many people seem to think he is, Houston should take him.
Who’s your dark-horse pick to make it to the Super Bowl?
Goldich: The Ravens? Do they qualify? It’s hard to have a dark horse this time of year. I think there are six or seven teams that wouldn’t surprise anyone, and a few teams that no one in their right mind would pick. And maybe Baltimore is in between those two categories. It all depends on Lamar Jackson’s health, of course. But if he returns for the playoffs, why can’t they be as good as the team that started 7–3, that has postseason experience, very good coaching and took the Bills down to the final whistle in October? (Oh, hey, were they my preseason prediction? Look at that.)
Gramling: The Chargers. Justin Herbert can already go shot-for-shot with any opposing quarterback (as long as his coaching staff lets him) and Trevor Lawrence is rapidly becoming that kind of guy, too. Their teams don’t measure up with the AFC bluebloods, but if you can get into an ugly weather, messy defensive battle type of game, the Chargers and Jaguars are capable of being this year’s Bengals.
Breer: The Packers. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see Green Bay—after flaming out in the playoffs in three consecutive 13-win seasons—break through as a 9–8 team? I think based on the relative weakness of the NFC, the presence of Aaron Rodgers and the quarterbacks he’s up against in that bracket, the development of the young receivers, and the ability of Green Bay to win games in different ways (last week, they scored on defense and special teams), you can see a path for the Packers to Phoenix.
Final thoughts
Gramling: Week 18 shouldn’t exist—bring back the 14-game regular season with three bye weeks per team! I’m sure Mitch has something more insightful to add …
Goldich: It was a really difficult week for so many people in and around the NFL ecosystem, but I’m happy to see how much love the medical staffs that cared for Damar Hamlin are receiving. I hope this isn’t a thought that fades away in two weeks with people forgetting about it. There are so many people out there who are critical to the NFL’s massive operation who are so often behind the scenes and underappreciated, and some of them literally save lives when needed.
Breer: Big shout-out to Zac Taylor’s wife, Sarah, who’s leading an effort for schoolchildren to make get-well cards for Damar Hamlin and his family. The drive started at the school the Taylors’ children attend and now has spread to more than 40 schools in the Cincinnati area. The cards will be delivered Thursday to the Hamlins at the UC Medical Center—and I’m told this isn’t the only thing Sarah’s done to support the family. If there’s any silver lining to come from this terrifying week, it’s been how we’ve seen so many good people react. And Zac and Sarah are most certainly among them.
