NFL Free Agency 2023: Who’s Going to Land the Big-Money Deals
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Free agency officially kicks off at 4 p.m. ET Wednesday. But the legal tampering period—where teams and agents can negotiate deals, and agree to them in principle—starts at noon ET Monday and continues until 3:59 p.m. ET Wednesday. Here is our top 50 free agent list and what we know right now …
• The free-agent class is thin in general, but a few positions always get paid. One group where I think you’ll see a few big contracts is along the offensive line, where demand always outweighs supply. That’s why three right tackles drafted in the top 35 in 2019 (Mike McGlinchey, Kaleb McGary, Jawaan Taylor) who are good players but didn’t live up to their draft position are well situated for big paydays. All three could exceed $15 million per year on long-term deals, and I’d expect the Bears to be in that market.
Tennessee’s Nate Davis, Philly’s Isaac Seumalo, Denver’s Dalton Risner and Baltimore’s Ben Powers are poised for paydays from teams looking for guards.
• I think the case of Orlando Brown Jr. could be a little more complicated. The Chiefs aren’t against bringing him back—they just want a long-term solution at left tackle, rather than a one-year fix, which is why they chose not to tag him a second time. And if not Kansas City, it’s going to be interesting to see how many teams are not just interested, but interested in playing him at left tackle.
The Chiefs didn't put the franchise tag on Brown Jr. for a second consecutive season.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
My understanding is he’s adamant about staying on the left side. If he sticks to his guns, that could limit his market, especially considering the number of teams playing Shanahan-influenced schemes that favor lighter, more mobile linemen.
• The Bears’ desire to land DJ Moore in trading the first pick to Carolina is a pretty good indicator of the receiver market. The top two guys out there are New England’s Jakobi Meyers and Detroit’s DJ Chark. The former is pretty productive with limited upside. The latter has upside but is inconsistent and has been hurt a lot.
So I’d expect teams to be aggressive in at least asking about other teams’ top receivers just to see who’s available. I’ll also be interested to see the contract offers for guys with untapped big-play potential such as the Chiefs’ Mecole Hardman and the Colts’ Parris Campbell.
• If you’re looking for a place where real money will get thrown around, I do think there are a couple of defensive tackles worth paying attention to, and even more so after Commanders DT Daron Payne landed a four-year, $90 million deal that brings him over $47 million over its first two years and a $9 million guarantee in Year 3.
Two guys who I think will land between $15 million and $20 million per year are Denver’s Dre’mont Jones and Philly’s Javon Hargrave. Jones just turned 26, had 22 sacks in four years as a Bronco, and has plenty of room to grow. Hargrave, meanwhile, is 30 (a drawback) but is coming off an 11-sack season, and remains among the league’s best. It’ll be interesting to see if their defensive coordinators from 2022—Ejiro Evero and Jonathan Gannon—in Carolina and Arizona, respectively, pursue them.
• An important question to ask about any free agent: Why is he available in the first place?
Most often, getting to free agency means a player is not a core player for the team he’s leaving. But there are exceptions, and Jessie Bates certainly is one. Bates played on the franchise tag last year in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are letting him go mostly because, with Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow in play for new deals, and Ja’Marr Chase there next year, they have a lot of mouths to feed.
As a result, I know teams see a guy such as Bates making it to the market as a rare opportunity to get a guy you can really build around on the free-agent market. Accordingly, I think he’ll have plenty of suitors (Cleveland and San Francisco could be in it) and could land a deal somewhere around $17 million per year or so.
• I’d put Tremaine Edmunds in a similar category. No, he hasn’t quite lived up to his potential. But he has a rare combination of size and speed for an off-ball linebacker, and is still just 24 years old (he turns 25 in May). The Bills like their 2018 first-rounder as a player but don’t love the idea of paying a guy at his position at the very top of the market.
Edmunds has a chance to get there.
• The Buccaneers are going to be carrying a lot of dead money this year to reset post–Tom Brady. And for people who say there’s no price to pay for that, they had to release their left tackle of the past eight years, Donovan Smith, and will probably watch 26-year-old Jamel Dean leave via free agency this week.
Dean’s bookend the past couple of years, Carlton Davis, got a three-year, $44.5 million to stay in Tampa last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dean tops that.
• With Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard tagged, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Jamaal Williams and Kareem Hunt are the top backs out there. Add the general devaluing of the position to a very, very strong draft class at running back, and it figures to be tough going for Sanders, Montgomery, Williams and the rest of the crew at that spot.
• Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Derek Carr are all signed, meaning Jimmy Garoppolo is clearly the top free-agent quarterback out there. The question is whether he’ll be in position to get close to the $27 million per year he was making in San Francisco. More teams are looking to go economical at the position after what happened on the quarterback market last year, and what Jones, Smith and Carr have gotten already this year, so how this plays out for Garoppolo vs. guys like Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett will be interesting.
I’ve heard Garoppolo’s camp is shooting for $25 million per year. I think maybe he’ll do a deal with lower base pay but a chance to get close to there with incentives.
• What happens with Lamar Jackson remains the biggest question of the week.
But remember, free agency for him, at least by rule, starts Wednesday, not today.
