The Non-First-Round NFL Rookies Who Could Make Waves in 2023
Thanks for the patience this week—we’ve moved a few things back a day, so my wife and I could celebrate our 10th anniversary. And with that done, let’s get to your questions …
From ASB1216 (@ASB1216): If you had to guess this season’s offensive and defensive rookie of the year and each pick had to be players drafted outside the first round, who would you take?
Love this question, ASB, because it makes me dive a little deeper into the draft class, and I do have a couple of names for you after diving in.
On offense, I’m going to take my swing on Raiders tight end Michael Mayer, for a combination of reasons. The first is that I think he was undervalued where he went—he was the one, true two-way tight end in the draft, and it felt (to me at least) like there was this fatigue on the part of scouts who’d heard about him for three years. The second thing is the opportunity he’ll get with the Raiders, who lost their top two tight ends, Darren Waller and Foster Moreau. Third, Josh McDaniels’s offense is exceedingly tight-end-friendly.
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Branch dropped to the mid-second round with Detroit, where he’ll join a defense that allowed the most yards per game last season.
Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY NETWORK
On defense, give me Lions safety Brian Branch. Alabama coach Nick Saban would tell any NFL type who’d listen how much he loved Branch, and how ready and suited for today’s NFL his star defensive back was. In Detroit, he’ll get to play on a defense that’s invested heavily in a heat-seeking front, which creates chances for guys on the back end to make a lot of plays on the ball. Which, I think, sets Saban up to look like a soothsayer in January.
From Patriots Simp (@PatsSimp): Are the Bills the most overrated, overhyped team in the past 25 years? You would think they had to have made the Super Bowl at least four times in the past years the way the media talks about them. Funny how they never keep the same energy when they disappoint year after year.
This, Simp, seems like it might not be coming from the most objective place.
I actually think the hype has been muted on the Bills going into this year, after it spun out of control last year. I also think that sets Buffalo up to deliver on its enormous potential—this is still one of the NFL’s most talented rosters. Remember, last year, the team went through the Tops Supermarket tragedy in the offseason, was displaced twice by snowstorms, and dealt with Damar Hamlin’s situation at the end of the season. By the time the Bengals got to Western New York in mid-January, the Bills were spent, physically and emotionally.
The optimist would say that going through that would bring Buffalo closer together. Having a healthy Josh Allen and Von Miller down the stretch wouldn’t hurt, either. And when you really sit down and look at it, the idea the team has done nothing is asinine. Consider …
• The Bills have made the playoffs in five of six years under Sean McDermott, after missing the tournament in each of the 17 seasons before his arrival.
• They’ve advanced at least a round in the playoffs in three straight years—the last time that happened in Buffalo was through the team’s streak of four consecutive Super Bowls in the early 1990s.
• They’ve won the AFC East three straight times (last time that happened in Buffalo was through a string of four from 1988 to ‘91), taking the Patriots’ place as the division’s standard.
• They’ve got a solid, still-young core of players—Allen, Stefon Diggs, Ed Oliver, Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano among them—locked up long term.
So, yeah, I appreciate your fandom. But I wouldn’t be writing any eulogies. As long as Allen, McDermott and Brandon Beane are around, the Bills will be, too.
From JDins5 (@JDins_5): The James Robinson contract was a strange one. As a Jags fan who still loves him, would you expect someone to take a flier on him before September?
Dins, it’s too bad, but my feeling is this is just one of those cases of the realities of pro football coming home to roost for a player at far too early an age.
Robinson, if you’re scoring at home, has played just three NFL seasons. He’s only 24. And spending his first 35 games as a Jaguar, he became a fantastic success story—Going from undrafted afterthought from Illinois State to a guy who rushed for 2,177 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and caught 99 balls for another 412 yards over those 35 games. Then, at the end of October, the Jags traded him to the Jets, he flatlined the rest of the year, New York didn’t tender him before free agency, and he signed with the Patriots in March.
And in that contract sat the rest of the story. Robinson’s Patriots deal included three injury waivers, one for each of his knees and another for his left Achilles. Clearly, New England was concerned before bringing him in, and that he’s already gone shows concern was warranted.
He’s made $2.5 million as a pro football player, which is nothing to sneeze at, but hardly set-for-life money. So the lesson here? Running backs, get money when you can. If you can.
From Patrick Sullivan (@psullivan4): What have your fellow media members been saying about Rodgers’s adjustment to the N.Y. media? It’s not Green Bay! How do folks think he will react during a tough period as every team goes through tough times over the season?
Patrick, I think this specific story line is ridiculous.
I understand that people can look at the TV market rankings, and see the Jets in the biggest market, and the Packers in the smallest market, and make the leap in thinking it’s reflected wholly in how those teams are covered. But the reality of it isn’t close to that. The Packers are intensely covered by every outlet in a state that’s more populated than Minnesota (does anyone see the Vikings as small market?). From my experience, I’d say they’re comfortably top 10 in the number of media people covering a team on a daily basis.
Rodgers is already familiarizing himself with media in New York.
John Minchillo/AP
In fact, I think the Jets’ number would probably be about the same as the Packers’. Where I would concede Rodgers will see a difference is in how his personal life is covered by the Page Six types. And that could be annoying for him, but it won’t be something he’ll have to worry about at work every day.
Also, for what it’s worth, what I observed down there last week was Rodgers has already started to build relationships with the people who’ll be around him day-to-day in Jersey, which is something he did in Green Bay, too, and is a smart thing for any player to do.
From Wayne Jeffrey (@Wayne59779066): With the draft over, who are your favorites to seriously contend for the Super Bowl?
Wayne, I don’t have to make picks for nearly three months. But if we’re just talking about who the favorites should be—and I’d characterize that as the safe picks going into the year—I think five teams stand above the rest. Those would be the Chiefs, Bengals and Bills in the AFC, and the Eagles and 49ers in the NFC. And if you want a Super Bowl matchup, right now I might go Niners-Bengals.
(I just looked it up, and that was my Super Bowl pick at the start of last year’s playoffs, too, so there you have it.)
From David Kromelow (@dkrom59): What would a successful 2023 season for the Bears consist of?
Thanks for checking in, David. I don’t think anyone is under the illusion that Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus have that operation where they want it quite yet.
That said, I think there are a few things they’ll want to come away from 2023 with.
1) A clear read on where their future is with Justin Fields. Last year, OC Luke Getsy bent his offense to get the most out of Fields. Ideally, now, Fields will start coming back to him a little more, showing he can see the field faster, get rid of the ball quicker and throw it better in high-leverage situations (third-and-long, two-minute, red zone). If that happens, then the Bears will be cooking with gas. If it doesn’t, they have the ammo to go back into the draft for a quarterback. But either way, they’ll want an answer. And I can say this—Fields is working like hell to give them the right one.
2) Development from the raft of young players the team has brought aboard. That means another step from guys like Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon, and more from those who flew further under the radar last year (Velus Jones Jr.?). It also means seeing good early signs from their rookies and primarily Darnell Wright, who could form a nice young bookend combination with 2022 rookie Braxton Jones, if things go to plan.
3) Some free-agent hits. Obviously, the work on the offensive line needs to show up, as does the massive investment made in Tremaine Edmunds to be the sort of ideal linebacker fit that Roquan Smith wasn’t (not Smith’s fault, Edmunds just has the frame of an Eberflus player at the position). And throw DJ Moore in with this group, too, though he was acquired via trade, not free agency.
4) A strong finish. Ideally, the Bears would have some momentum going into 2024, and seeing all these parts come together down the stretch is a must, so I’d say the team’s record, and performance, over the second half of the season will be a good indicator of where the rebuild stands.
So, in short, David, with some breakthroughs from the quarterback, young player development, impact play from vet acquisitions and a promising finish, and a Bears fan should be happy.
From Jason Gill (@TheOneEyeLuv): Could people be underestimating the Colts? Hear me out. Minshew starts and plays well. JT is healthy. Sparano gets the O-line back. Leonard is healthy and the young secondary play O.K. Plus, Steichen and his plan. Is it out of the realm to think of them as a wild-card team?
Jason, for the most part, I agree with you. The roster itself in Indy is still in good shape, with a nice core of elite players in their respective primes—Shaq Leonard, DeForest Buckner, Quenton Nelson and Jonathan Taylor being the ones making that group up. I also would be in line with your thinking that, in having Shane Steichen aboard and some combination of Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson on the field, they’ll be O.K. at quarterback.
Where it gets trickier, as I see it, is when you get to the offensive line discussion.
Richardson will look to make his mark after Indianapolis selected him with the fourth pick.
IndyStar/USA TODAY Sports
To me, lacking a left tackle along an offensive line is sort of like lacking a top corner for a secondary. You can be solid everywhere else, but at some point, it’s probably going to bring you down, and often in a spectacular fashion. That, in fact, is pretty much the story of last year’s Colts line. So, to me, while Richardson’s progress is clearly the most important thing for the team’s long-term health, getting left tackle sorted out is pretty damn big in the short term.
Can second-year tackle Bernhard Raimann be the guy? He showed signs down the stretch last year, and if it works this time, then the rest—with Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith still around as anchors—should fall into place. But if Raimann can’t deliver … look out.
And as for the playoffs, if they were in the NFC, maybe. Tough sledding in the AFC.
From BigZip330 (@BZip330): Bert - The Browns look to be the sleeper team coming out of OTAs. The Watson chaos has gone down to zero and he looks sharp. They have a very upgraded defense (both players and coaches) and the NFL’s best running back. What is your take here?
We’ve been over this a few times already, Big Zip. There’s not a glaring hole on that roster. The coaching staff has gotten an offseason now to drill down on building an offense for Deshaun Watson. The last time we saw Watson play a full season, he was legit a top-five quarterback, even in a dumpster fire of a situation in Houston. The Browns have premium players, in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, at the two most important positions on defense. Their offensive personnel is balanced, and the line has a shot to be among the league’s best.
And, yes, like the Colts, the Browns are in the AFC, and not just the AFC, but the AFC North, where every team has the talent to expect to be in the playoffs. They’re better than the Colts, though, and should finish in the top half of the conference.
Much of whether they get there will ride on Watson’s performance. I personally think he’ll be ready to roll. We’ll see.
From timaaaaaaay (@Timaaayravens): Which Ravens receiver will lead the team in yards?
Timaaaaaaay, give me Odell Beckham Jr. I was tempted to go Rashod Bateman, but he’s been a little too up and down, and Zay Flowers will probably take some time to develop. I think the Ravens will get a motivated version of Beckham, who was fantastic when he last played down the stretch of the 2021 season, and who I believe new OC Todd Monken will work to get the ball to.
It doesn’t hurt, either, that there’s a built-in rapport with Lamar Jackson there.
