32 Teams in 32 Days: It’s Now or Never for the Bills’ Super Bowl Window
Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Bills.
The Buffalo Bills have hit a wall after back-to-back playoff seasons that ended in the divisional round.
It wasn’t that long ago that the Bills were the surging squad, with a bright future under quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. But now it seems their Super Bowl window is closing fast.
The Bills have gone backwards since losing the AFC title game to the Chiefs during the 2020 season. They then lost a thrilling divisional round game to the Chiefs the following season and were embarrassed by the Bengals in the same round last year.
The Bills open the 2023 season on the road against the Jets.
Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports (left; right); Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA TODAY Network (center)
But Buffalo still has a talented roster behind Allen and Diggs. Gabe Davis is inconsistent at times, but he’s a solid No. 2 wideout. The offense could also receive a boost from the arrival of this year’s first-round pick, tight end Dalton Kincaid. And Dion Dawkins, a two-time Pro Bowler, is one of the best left tackles in the league.
On the defensive side, the Bills kept the safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde intact after re-signing Poyer during free agency. Buffalo lost linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who signed with the Bears this offseason, and instead will lean on Matt Milano, who had a breakout 2023 season while being named a first-team All-Pro linebacker.
Perhaps it’s an exaggeration to say the Bills’ Super Bowl window is closing fast, but it sure seems that way with how the Diggs situation has developed in the past month.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Making it work with Diggs
Allen recently asked the media to stop talking about the Diggs situation, claiming there’s nothing to be concerned about. But his team made it a big deal when Bills coach Sean McDermott said he was “very concerned,” and when Diggs was seen on the sideline screaming at his quarterback during the aforementioned playoff loss to the Bengals. The Bills clearly need to get their offense back on the same page, starting with Diggs, and then with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Buffalo’s offense regressed last year, and it especially struggled down the stretch during the transition season from Brian Daboll, who left to become the head coach of the Giants, to Dorsey. McDermott took a gamble by retaining Dorsey as his offensive play-caller, but that might not matter if the two coaches can’t get Diggs to buy in for 2023.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 11 to 18
The Bills have a balanced schedule for the first 10 games, but they may have the toughest schedule when it comes to the final seven. They host Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in Week 11, followed by back-to-back road games vs. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, then Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Luckily for the Bills, they get a bye week in Week 13 before facing the Cowboys at home, the Chargers on the road, the Patriots at home and the Dolphins on the road to end the season. Winning the AFC East for a fourth consecutive season will be a challenge for the Bills with their tough schedule to end the year.
Breakout player to watch: Edge rusher Gregory Rousseau
Rousseau played in 13 games for the Bills in 2022, and 17 in ’21.
Chris Pedota/USA TODAY Network
The Bills missed Von Miller down the stretch last season, but it provided an opportunity for Rousseau, a 2021 first-round pick, to step up in Miller’s absence. Rousseau flashed with eight sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 14 quarterback hits during his second season. Now the Bills need him to be a consistent playmaker while Miller continues his recovery from the torn ACL he sustained in November. Buffalo also has A.J. Epenesa, and it recently added Leonard Floyd for depth.
Position of strength: Interior defensive line
Ed Oliver has had many highs and lows since Buffalo drafted him with the No. 9 pick in 2019, but the Bills proved the value they see in him by signing the defensive tackle to a four-year, $68 million contract extension last season. Oliver made many splash plays after he fully recovered from an ankle injury that hindered him to start the ’22 season. He, alongside DaQuan Jones, was instrumental in the Bills allowing only 104.6 rushing yards per game last season (fifth best in the league). Buffalo also has depth at the position with Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle and the addition of Poona Ford.
Position of weakness: Cornerback
The cornerback position was an issue for Buffalo last season, with then-rookie Kaiir Elam struggling to find his footing and Tre’Davious White being limited to six games due to injury. White is a two-time Pro Bowler, but he hasn’t played more than 11 games in a season since 2020. Elam failed to crack the starting rotation to open the ’22 season, but he ended his rookie season with six starts, two interceptions and 41 total tackles. The Bills will need the two cornerbacks to be consistent—and available—if they want to earn a playoff spot in the rugged AFC, which features many star quarterbacks.
X-factor: RB James Cook
Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s erratic at times, mainly because he finds himself having to carry the offense with a stagnant rushing attack. But the Bills should have seen enough flashes in Cook during his rookie season to make him the lead back this season. The 2022 second-round pick recorded 507 rushing yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his 89 attempts. If he develops into a productive playmaker, perhaps that leads to less carries for the versatile Allen. Buffalo also added running back Damien Harris with hopes of forming a dynamic backfield tandem with Cook.
Cook said he is “Obviously, RB1” on The Rich Eisen Show in late June.
Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network
Sleeper fantasy pick: RB James Cook
Cook didn’t put up huge fantasy totals as a rookie, but he averaged better than five yards per carry and caught 21 passes. With Devin Singletary gone, Cook should see his opportunities increase. Harris could cap his ceiling a bit, but Cook still has more flex appeal in PPR formats. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Josh Allen’s 550.5 rushing yards
Allen finished with more than 760 yards in each of the last two seasons. The Bills didn’t add another receiver in the offseason to complement Diggs, and it’s likely Allen’s mobility will continue to be on display. Why mess with what works? —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
Final record: 11–6, second in AFC East
