NFL Week 11 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including a Super Bowl rematch and a pair of AFC North grudge matches.

Author:
Kyle Wood and Gilberto Manzano
Publish date:
Nov 16, 2023

In this story:

After one of the worst primetime slates ever witnessed last weekend, we’re getting some redemption in Week 11.

For starters, the Bengals and Ravens are locking up at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night, with the AFC North potentially in the balance. If Baltimore wins, it claims a 2.5-game lead on Cincinnati with a season sweep in hand. However, the Bengals can close to within a half-game while both teams have tough roads ahead.

Then, on Monday night, we have what could both be a Super Bowl rematch and preview taking place at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs host the Eagles, with the two meeting for the first time since Super Bowl LVII, where Kansas City won 38–35.

We tackle those games and three others below, giving our picks for the best NFL games of the week.

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1. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) talks with his brother, Eagles center Jason Kelce (62) after Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium — Travis and Jason Kelce became the first siblings to face each other in the Super Bowl last year. .and it could happen again next February.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Monday’s game between Philadelphia and Kansas City is a Super Bowl LVII rematch — and potential Super Bowl LVIII preview. It pits the top team in the AFC against the No. 1 team in the NFC and everyone’s favorite podcast co-hosts, Travis and Jason Kelce, against one another.

The Chiefs beat the Eagles 38–35 in the Big Game last February and it feels like these teams’ identities have flip-flopped in the months since that meeting. Kansas City is now reliant on an elite defense, which was Philadelphia’s strength a season ago. And now the Eagles are the team with the unstoppable offense, led by the sport’s most unstoppable play: The Tush Push.

Philadelphia beat Dallas, 28–23, in Week 9 for its third straight win heading into the bye. Jalen Hurts hit both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for touchdowns and found the end zone himself for the seventh time this season. With tight end Dallas Goedert (forearm) sidelined, Brown and Smith will see even more work in the passing game, but the Eagles are not one to abandon the ground game, with D’Andre Swift among the league’s leading rushers.

Kansas City took down Miami, 21–14, in Germany two weeks ago and also enjoyed a week off before its biggest game of the year. The Chiefs’ defense held the NFL’s highest-scoring offense to its lowest output of the season, which allowed the offense to survive a down game from both Patrick Mahomes and Kelce.

Mahomes has a favorable matchup against a Philadelphia secondary that allows over 250 passing yards per game and Hurts has the upper hand against a Kansas City front that opponents have been able to run on this year. Will coach Andy Reid win his fifth straight against his former team or will Nick Sirianni’s squad avenge its Super Bowl defeat?

Verderame’s pick: Chiefs - 2.5, Over 45.5 (Kansas City 27, Philadelphia 23)
Manzano’s pick: Chiefs -2.5, Under 45.5 (Kansas City 24, Philadelphia 21)
Wood’s pick: Chiefs -2.5, Under 45.5 (Kansas City 23, Philadelphia 20)

2. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Joe Burrow looking to pass for the Bengals; Lamar Jackson looking to pass for the Ravens. — Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson are used to facing each other in big games.
Sam Greene/The Cincinnati Enquirer/USA TODAY Network (left) © Matt Kartozian/USA TODAY Sports (right)

Cincinnati and Baltimore are both jockeying for position in a crowded division race and AFC playoff picture at large after losses last week. The Ravens won, 27–24, when these teams met back in September, which brought Lamar Jackson’s record as a starter against the Bengals to 7–1. Joe Burrow was still battling a calf injury in that Week 2 loss and key injuries to both teams figure to factor into the second matchup of the season between these division rivals.

Lou Anarumo’s defense allowed a season-high 30 points in Sunday’s loss to the Texans after it held opponents to 17 on average during Cincinnati’s four-game winning streak. The Bengals were without Sam Hubbard (ankle) against Houston and Trey Hendrickson (knee) joined him on the injury report — both defensive ends could miss Thursday’s game along with receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring), who has been ruled out again. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase draw a tough matchup against a stingy secondary, though Baltimore’s top cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) may be out as well.

The Ravens’ ground game offers a clear edge over a Cincinnati front that has struggled to defend the run all year. The status of left tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee) could inhibit that advantage, but between Jackson, Gus Edwards and rookie Keaton Mitchell, offensive coordinator Todd Monken has a lot of options to throw at the Bengals. Though Mike Macdonald’s defense allowed a season-high 33 points in Sunday’s loss to Cleveland, no team holds its opponents to fewer points per game than Baltimore (15.7).

Cincinnati was 5–4 at this point a season ago and won out. That seems unlikely this year with the team up against the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, though a Bengals win over the Ravens would knot things up even more in the tightly contested AFC North.

Verderame’s pick: Bengals +3.5, Under 45.5 (Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 20)
Manzano’s pick: Bengals +3.5, Under 45.5 (Cincinnati 22, Baltimore 20)
Wood’s pick: Ravens -3.5, Over 45.5 (Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 23)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson — With the news of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending surgery, all eyes in Cleveland will be on Browns’ rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland will be without Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the year as the franchise quarterback is undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. It’s yet another blow to a Browns’ offense that already lost running back Nick Chubb and Jack Conklin for the year. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson is slated to start Sunday against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers keep finding ways to win. After Sunday’s 23–19 victory over the Packers, they have still not outgained a single opponent this season yet they’re only a half-game back from the division-leading Ravens. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland, 26–22, at home in Week 2 behind a pair of defensive touchdowns. As of now, that’s the tiebreaker between the two teams, both of which currently occupy wild-card playoff positions.

The Browns lead the league in defensive efficiency and on offense they can still rely on their running game, which gains the second-most yards per game in the NFL. Turnovers were an issue for Thompson-Robinson in his lone start, as he tossed three interceptions and no touchdown. That could certainly rear its head against a Steelers defense that has 18 turnovers on the year, which is tied for the league lead, and could get safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) back this week.

Kenny Pickett completed a season-low 50% of his attempts the last time these teams met and his already pedestrian passing numbers are down over the last few weeks. He hasn’t thrown for 200 passing yards since Week 7 and he only has one total touchdown since then. The emergence of a reliable running game has helped Pittsburgh’s offense stay afloat during that stretch.

Since the Browns beat the Steelers in the playoffs in 2021, Pittsburgh has won four out of the last five meetings between these rival teams. Cleveland is 4–1 at home this season — its lone loss was a 28–3 blowout to Baltimore in Thompson-Robinson’s NFL debut.

Verderame’s pick: Steelers -1.5, Over 33.5 (Pittsburgh 19, Cleveland 16)
Manzano’s pick: Browns +1.5, Over 33.5 (Cleveland 23, Pittsburgh 22)
Wood’s pick: Steelers -1.5, Under 33.5 (Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 13)

4. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

Look for the Dolphins to figure out creative ways to get Tyreek Hill the football.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Las Vegas is undefeated under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Granted, a pair of home wins over the New York teams isn’t the same as going on the road to take on Tua Tagovailoa and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense, but somehow the Raiders have found their way back to .500 and they are in thick of the AFC playoff race.

Miami lost to the Chiefs, 21–14, in Germany two weeks ago and fell to the Eagles, 31–17, on the road in Week 7 — their 31 combined points in those two losses is lower than their league-leading average (31.7). Las Vegas will likely put up less resistance than last year’s Super Bowl competitors, but the defense has performed better under Pierce.

The Raiders are one of a handful of teams that allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game, a category that Miami leads the league in. Their run defense is among the NFL’s worst, though, which is something the Dolphins could exploit — especially if rookie running back De’Von Achane returns this week. First-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell has been serviceable since taking over as the starter in Sin City. However, the real upgrade on offense began with Josh Jacobs, who’s coming off his two best games of the year.

Miami is not a particularly daunting defensive matchup, but it’s unlikely Las Vegas can keep pace with the speed on the field Sunday in South Florida, which is why this is the largest spread of the week. Coming out of the bye after being held to a season-low point total, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel had plenty of time to scheme up ways to deploy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders are also 1–4 on the road while the Dolphins are 4–0 with a gaudy plus-100 point differential.

Verderame’s pick: Dolphins -12.5, Over 46.5 (Miami 34, Las Vegas 17)
Manzano’s pick: Raiders +12.5, Under 46.5 (Miami 24, Las Vegas 20)
Wood’s pick: Dolphins -12.5, Over 46.5 (Miami 30, Las Vegas 17)

5. New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

The situation in Buffalo is dire after three losses in four games for the Bills. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired this week and the next team on the schedule is the Jets, a defense that has given Josh Allen fits in recent years.

Monday’s loss to the Broncos was an all-timer for Buffalo. The Bills, who were favored by more than a touchdown at home, would have escaped with a win were it not for a costly special teams mishap. Instead, they lost 24–22 to fall out of the playoff picture. Allen threw two more interceptions and now leads the league with 11 — he’s also first in passing touchdowns (19) — and Stefon Diggs inexplicably saw season lows in catches, targets and yards.

New York’s defense continues to be one of the NFL’s best and its offense still can't score touchdowns. The Jets were held out of the end zone in losses the last two weeks to the Raiders and Chargers, but kicker Greg Zuerlein was busy with six made field goals, the team’s only points during that stretch. It’s been made clear that Zach Wilson will remain the starter despite the offensive shortcomings as Aaron Rodgers continues to tease a December return.

Remember, New York got the best of Buffalo when these teams met in Week 1. Allen threw a season-worst three interceptions in that 22–16 overtime defeat and Wilson, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson did just enough on offense after Rodgers went down. The Bills are in need of a win as the Dolphins have passed them by in the AFC East and the wild-card picture is full of playoff hopefuls, including the Jets, who would leap Buffalo in the event of an upset.

Verderame’s pick: Jets +7.5, Under 39.5 (Buffalo 20, New York 16)
Manzano’s pick: Jets +7.5, Over 39.5 (Buffalo 27, New York 23)
Wood’s pick: Jets +7.5, Over 39.5 (Buffalo 24, New York 19

Final Thoughts

Verderame: Everything in my head keeps telling me to pick the Bengals over the Ravens. For starters, it’s hard to sweep a division rival, and additionally, Joe Burrow has largely played very well over the past three weeks. In his career, he’s had some big games against Baltimore, including games of 416 and 525 passing yards. However, Cincinnati is a mess defensively, ranking 31st in yards per carry against (5.0) and yards per play (6.1). It’s tough to beat the Ravens when you can’t stop the run.

Manzano: Interim coach Antonio Pierce quickly established an identity for the Raiders as a team that plays smashmouth football with a productive running game and a standout defense. The Dolphins have struggled against physical opponents, including the losses to the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. Not saying the Raiders are as good as those teams, but they can dictate the pace with running back Josh Jacobs to keep this game competitive. As for the Bills, they simply can’t be trusted to cover the spread after losses to the Patriots and Broncos in the past month.

Wood: The Chiefs and Ravens will prove once again that they’re a cut above in the AFC with wins this week over the Eagles and Bengals, respectively. For the most part, I’m backing the home favorites this week but the Steelers are the lone exception on the road against the Browns, who will be without Deshaun Watson. Even against a rookie quarterback making his second career start, Pittsburgh might get outgained again and keep on winning all the same.

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