NFL Week 17 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including a battle for AFC supremacy.

Author:
Kyle Wood and Matt Verderame
Publish date:
Dec 28, 2023

In this story:

The NFL regular season is down to two weeks.

In the AFC, there are still four playoff spots up for grabs. That can change with the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills securing their tickets, with the former simply needing a win for its eighth straight division title while Buffalo needs a win and some help.

In the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams are working towards a playoff berth, something already secured by the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can also clinch the NFC South, needing only to beat the New Orleans Saints this weekend.

Below, we look at the top five games this weekend and give our best bets for the action ahead.

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1. Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson — Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL’s top-scoring offense but it’s Lamar Jackson who’s emerged as the MVP favorite.
Jasen Vinlove (Tagovailoa) and Cary Edmondson (Jackson)/USA TODAY Sports

The top two teams in the AFC, the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens both scored big wins over NFC contenders last week. The Ravens are now in position to lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference and a first-round bye with a win Sunday against the Dolphins, a team they’ve lost to in each of the last two seasons.

The difference between home and away games has been night and day for Miami, which improved to 7–1 at home after a 22–20 triumph over Dallas. Outside of South Florida, though, the AFC East leader is just 4–3. The Dolphins only reached the end zone once against the Cowboys — Tua Tagovailoa found Raheem Mostert for his league-leading 21st touchdown — which kept kicker Jason Sanders busy. Tyreek Hill finished with 99 yards on nine catches in his return to action while Jaylen Waddle was held to 50 yards on a single catch.

Baltimore’s 33–19 win over San Francisco saw Lamar Jackson jump Brock Purdy as the MVP favorite. That victory was just as much about Jackson’s play as it was about that of the Ravens’ defense, which picked off Purdy four times. This matchup pits the highest-scoring offense in the NFL (Miami, 30.9 points per game) against the No. 1 scoring defense (Baltimore, 16.3 ppg). Interestingly, both teams are well-suited to counter each other’s strengths.

No team is hotter than the Ravens, winner of five straight and their last four at home. The Dolphins have exhibited the offensive firepower to counteract such a swarming defense and are in a rare position as an underdog. Both teams are tied for the best record against the spread at 10–5, though Miami is 1–3 as an underdog and Baltimore is 8–5 as a favorite.

Verderame: Ravens -3.5, Under 46.6 (Baltimore 23, Miami 19)
Manzano: Ravens -3.5, Under 46.6 (Baltimore 24, Miami 20)
Wood: Dolphins +3.5, Over 46.5 (Baltimore 27, Miami 26)

2. Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

Jan 16, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) reacts with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) after throwing a touchdown pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half during the wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports — Dak Prescott has plenty of weapons at his disposal but none more productive than CeeDee Lamb.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit and Dallas are at very different points of their respective seasons. The Lions have everything in front of them after clinching their first division title since 1993 and now even the NFC’s No. 1 seed is up for grabs. Pressure is mounting on the Cowboys, who have dropped two in a row on the road. Returning to AT&T Stadium, where America’s Team is 7–0, is the best way for this team to get right ahead of the playoffs, though.

The Minnesota Vikings gave Detroit all it could handle last week. Nick Mullens finished with over 400 passing yards but the Lions still overpowered the Vikings on the ground in a 30–24 road win. Jared Goff consistently keyed in on Amon-Ra St. Brown, who accounted for over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown on 12 catches, and the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for three total touchdowns and over 150 yards in the clinching victory. Pass defense continues to be an issue for Detroit, but so far its offense has been able to paper over those deficiencies.

Dallas took a late lead against Miami last week before allowing a game-winning field goal in the game’s waning seconds to fall 22–20. It was the second week in a row the Cowboys finished with fewer than 100 rushing yards as Tony Pollard’s struggles continued and Dak Prescott had nowhere to throw other than CeeDee Lamb, who had over 100 receiving yards for the seventh time this year. Dallas is in danger of dropping three games in a row for the first time since 2020 but the spread indicates the Cowboys should be safe from that fate at home.

The Lions are tied for the best mark in the league against the spread at 10–5 and Dallas is close behind at 9–6. The Cowboys are the only team that’s undefeated at home but Detroit has posted an impressive 6–2 mark for bettors on the road.

Verderame: Cowboys -6.5, Over 53.5 (Dallas 31, Detroit 24)
Manzano: Lions +6.5, Over 53.5 (Dallas 33, Detroit 30)
Wood: Lions +6.5, Over 53.5 (Dallas 31, Detroit 28)

3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. — Travis Kelce is having a down year by his lofty standards, but he’s had some big games against the Bengals.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

This iteration of Cincinnati vs. Kansas City lacks the oomph of recent matchups that pitted Joe Burrow against Patrick Mahomes. The Jake Browning-led Bengals are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and though Patrick Mahomes is still under center for the Chiefs, this team – after suffering its third loss in four weeks – is a far cry from the one that won the Super Bowl back in February.

Cincinnati’s offense was rolling with Browning at quarterback, except against Pittsburgh. Browning led the team to wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Vikings but lost twice to the Steelers, 16–10 in Week 12 and 34–11 last week. Without Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder), Tee Higgins stepped up to lead the team with 140 yards through the air but Browning’s three interceptions and an inefficient run game ultimately doomed the offense. The Bengals have been a bottom-10 defense against the pass and the run and Kansas City is in position to take advantage of both weaknesses with Isiah Pacheco back in the lineup.

The Chiefs’ scored their second-fewest points this season in a 20–14 loss to the Raiders at home on Monday. Two costly turnovers were the difference in the game as a Pacheco fumble was returned for a score and a Mahomes interception went for six points the other way as well. That’s how Las Vegas kept its slim playoff hopes alive even though Aidan O’Connell threw for 62 yards. Zamir White gashed Kansas City on the ground, something Steve Spagnuolo’s defense likely won’t have to worry about against Cincy, the worst rushing offense in the NFL.

The Bengals and Chiefs have seen a lot of each other in recent years — three of the last four meetings have gone to Cincinnati, but Kansas City won the most recent meeting in the AFC Championship a year ago. Of course, Burrow was leading the Bengals in those previous wins and Chase, who’s currently questionable, was a big help during those battles.

Verderame: Bengals +7.5, Under 44.5 (Kansas City 17, Cincinnati 16)
Manzano: Bengals +7.5, Under 44.5 (Kansas City 23, Cincinnati 20)
Wood: Bengals +7.5, Under 44.5 (Kansas City 24, Cincinnati 17)

4. New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans salutes after scoring — Mike Evans has been one of the best receivers in the NFL this season.
Jeremy Reper/USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans is in need of a win Sunday to keep its playoff hopes alive while Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South for the third year in a row with a victory — or a tie and an Atlanta loss. The Buccaneers have won their last three games against the Saints, including a resounding 26–9 win in Week 4 at the Superdome. Only Baltimore owns a longer winning streak than Tampa Bay, which has won four straight.

It’s been a long layoff for New Orleans since its 30–22 loss to the Rams last Thursday. The Saints trailed by as many as 23 points before they cut the deficit to one score late but the comeback effort ultimately fell short. Derek Carr recorded his second consecutive game with three touchdown passes and Chris Olave had a big outing but the running game, led by Alvin Kamara, struggled against L.A. New Orleans had allowed just six points in back-to-back wins over the Giants and Panthers before surrendering 30 to the Rams.

Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans keep connecting for touchdowns. Evans added two more to his league-leading tally (13) in last week’s 30–12 win against the Jaguars. (Notably, Marshon Lattimore (ankle), the Saints’ top corner who has frequently clashed with Evans in the past, is on injured reserve.) The Buccaneers’ defense forced four turnovers and limited Jacksonville to 37 rushing yards but the offense stole the show. Mayfield now has 10 total touchdowns and just two turnovers during the team’s win streak and he’s gotten Chris Godwin lately as well.

Tampa Bay is tied for the best record against the spread at 10–5 and the Saints are tied for the worst at 4–10–1. The Bucs’ cover rate does dip a bit at home (3–4) and as a favorite (2–2) but New Orleans still struggles on the road (2–5–1) and as an underdog (1–2).

Verderame: Buccaneers -2.5, Under 42.5 (Tampa Bay 23, New Orleans 17)
Manzano: Buccaneers -2.5, Over 42.5 (Tampa Bay 31, New Orleans 20)
Wood: Buccaneers -2.5, Over 42.5 (Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 17)

5. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Aug 19, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) talks with head coach Pete Carroll during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports — Geno Smith returned to action last week and helped Pete Carroll’s squad win in Tennessee.
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh and the Seattle Seahawks are both 8–7 after wins last week — the former is on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture and the latter currently occupies the final wild card spot in the NFC. Sunday’s game at Lumen Field will go a long way toward deciding these teams’ fates as two of the NFL’s best coaches clash.

The Steelers took down the Bengals 34–11 last week with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. He and George Pickens hooked up four times for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s defense once again kept Browning under wraps, picking him off three times and sacking him three more times in the one-sided affair. That was the team’s best defensive showing since four weeks prior, when it held Cincy to 10 points — Indianapolis hung 30 on the Steelers the week prior.

The Seahawks edged out the Titans 20–17 last week on a last-minute Geno Smith touchdown pass in his return. Smith had missed the previous two weeks, which saw the Seahawks go 1–1 with Drew Lock under center. He hit DK Metcalf for a touchdown and connected with Tyler Lockett eight times for 81 yards in his first game back, though Kenneth Walker III didn’t do much on the ground against Tennessee.

Seattle (8–5–2) and Pittsburgh (8–7) have comparable records against the spread. The Steelers have thrived as an underdog with a 5–4 mark against the spread and straight up, which has them tied with the Texans for the most upset wins this season.

Verderame: Steelers +3.5, Over 41.5 (Seattle 22, Pittsburgh 20)
Manzano: Steelers +3.5, Over 41.5 (Seattle 24, Pittsburgh 23)
Wood: Steelers +3.5, Under 41.5 (Seattle 20, Pittsburgh 17

Final Thoughts

Verderame: Betting on the Chiefs to cover a spread larger than a field goal seems insane at this point, but the data actually shows Kansas City isn’t half-bad at covering. However, the Bengals know the Chiefs like a division rival. This is going to be a physical, low-scoring game defined by whether Kansas City can avoid turnovers for only the third time this year. With the AFC West on the line (again), the Chiefs find a way, even if it’s ugly.

Manzano: By now, it’s obvious that the Chiefs don’t have an on button for their sluggish offense. They’re no longer a dominant offense because the Chiefs don’t have enough reliable playmakers, Travis Kelce is struggling on the field and Patrick Mahomes is letting his frustrations get the best of him. Expect Jake Browning’s Bengals to push the Chiefs in a low-scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium. I keep getting burned by the Cowboys, thinking they’re one of the best teams in the NFL. They’re not that unless they play at home. Don’t worry about the high total line for Cowboys-Lions. They’ll top 53.5 points because the Cowboys are at home and the Lions are explosive playing indoors.

Wood: Evidently, I like the underdogs this week. The Dolphins’ outing last week against the Cowboys should carry over to a respectable showing in Baltimore, but I think the Ravens still lock up the No. 1 seed. The Cowboys and Chiefs lines are just a bit rich for my blood — Detroit can keep things close in Dallas and taking Kansas City to cover such a large line feels like a fool’s errand after how the last few weeks have gone for the defending Super Bowl champs. The only favorite I’m confident in to cover is the Buccaneers, who can clinch the division as long as they take care of business against the up-and-down Saints.

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