Vikings Building Around Justin Jefferson, Rookie QB Makes Trade Unlikely

Dealing the receiver wouldn’t make sense with Minnesota poised to select its quarterback of the future. Plus, answers to your mailbag questions on the Bears, Giants, Panthers, Patriots, Cardinals, NFL draft and more.

The mailbag is officially back. And you guys weren’t shy with the questions …

From Tampa Tom (@PatriotTrollG): Will Justin Jefferson re-sign with Minnesota or be traded on draft day?

Tom, I believe Jefferson will be on the Minnesota Vikings’ roster for the foreseeable future.

Minnesota’s built it’s offense over the past few years where they’d go into this season capable of supporting a rookie quarterback. The Vikings have an offensive line anchored by tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, and have skill-position talent such as Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones, who they signed in free agency. Minnesota also has a solid quarterbacking infrastructure from coach Kevin O’Connell to OC Wes Phillips to QBs coach Josh McCown.

Trading Jefferson would make the whole thing pretty wobbly for a young quarterback the Vikings pick in two weeks, presuming they find a way to get one.

Now, that’s not to say that this will be easy. Jefferson was eligible for a deal a year ago. He’s since incurred another year of injury risk and sustained a hamstring injury, causing him to miss seven games. The quarterback uncertainty would—for a guy with Jefferson’s goals—have to be a factor, too. And over the past two years, since the explosion of deals in 2022 (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, etc.), the receiver market hasn’t moved much, meaning there’s a correction coming, especially given what we’ve seen happen with defensive lineman.

So where’s the number for Jefferson? It’s sky high, for sure, and more than $30 million per year. It’s going to be a challenge to get a deal done, but one I think the Vikings dive headlong into after the draft, with the goal of making sure Jefferson is on the roster for a long time to come.

From Hunter Gudyka (@HunterGudyka): Could the Bears realistically trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr.?

From David Kromelow (@dkrom59): Can you see the Bears moving up from nine for one of the top three WRs?

Hunter and David, this idea is really interesting to me. Chicago has improved its roster under GM Ryan Poles, to the point where there aren’t a ton of needs necessitating having 10 or 12 picks in the draft. I also love the concept of having Harrison develop as an NFL player with Caleb Williams, and under the tutelage of pros such as Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.

That said, the Chicago Bears have just four picks in this year’s draft, with the next one after 9 at 75. They dealt this year’s second-rounder to the Washington Commanders for Montez Sweat, their fourth-rounder to the Los Angeles Chargers for Allen, their fifth to the Buffalo Bills for Ryan Bates, their sixth to the Miami Dolphins for Dan Feeney and their seventh to Miami for N’Keal Harry (they got a fourth in the Jalen Carter trade last year).

So let’s say they deal up with the Chargers, who are sitting at five, to get Harrison. Per the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, there’s a 350-point gap between the fifth and ninth picks. The 55th pick in the draft is worth 350 points. The 75th and 122nd picks, which are the two the Bears have outside of No. 1 and No. 9, are worth 265 points. Which means, to make that move, the Bears probably have to either clean out this year’s picks, and add something from next year, or fork over a premium 2025 selection.

That’s why it’s difficult to see it happening. But, again, I do love the idea. 

Penix will likely be a first-round pick on April 25.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

From The Sports Fellow (@SportsFellow_): Is there any chance Michael Penix Jr. falls to the second round like Will Levis?

Sports Fellow, sure there is. I think the range of outcomes for Penix on draft weekend is wide open.

Coming out of the college season, I’d have told you, based on my conversations with scouts over the six months previous, that I’d have been surprised if Penix wound up going in the first round. Then, over the past few weeks, as evaluations have been completed, coaches see Penix in a more favorable light than scouts, and considerably so.

The reason could be that Penix has a lot of things you can’t coach. His deep-ball accuracy is off the charts. He has anticipation as a passer, and he’s tough as nails. So where scouts look at what is—Penix’s accuracy underneath can be scattershot, and he could use his legs a little more effectively to run and throw—coaches look at what could be, and trust that he can improve in his trouble spots.

Further complicating all of this is that Penix turns 24 next month. He played six years of college football, which makes it fair to wonder if, at this point, he is what he is, and you simply have to take the good with the bad (especially when you consider he was coached by the well-respected Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb).

So I’m fascinated to see where he lands. I’d say the ceiling is, maybe, just outside of the top 10 to a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, with the possibility he slips out of the first round. 

From Dillan (@Dcarloss1512): I have two: In your opinion, who’s the worst run franchise in the NFL? And, who’s the most overrated superstar in the league?

Dillan, on the first question, I think right now, based on the past five years or so, it’d have to be the Carolina Panthers. They’ve been among the 10 worst teams in the league the past five consecutive years. They fired three coaches, all in-season, over that stretch. They’ve traded their three best players of that period—Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Brian Burns—and gone through significant turnover in the front office. And the constant there is owner David Tepper, who went 7–9 his first year, 2018, and has failed to match even that since.

Remember, this team made the playoffs four times, and a Super Bowl, in the four years preceding Tepper.

So here's hoping he handles new GM Dan Morgan, VP Brandt Tilis and coach Dave Canales with more patience and better leadership than he did those who came before them. But, for now, this is the worst kind of problem a team can have because you can’t snap your fingers and change the owner. Tepper’s no dummy, of course, so he certainly has an opportunity to turn around an impossibly rocky start to his ownership.

As for the most overrated superstar in the league, it’d be hard not to go with Saquon Barkley. I do want to be clear about this—a lot of it is not his fault. He’s dealt with a lot of injuries, and the New York Giants weren’t exactly a model of stability during his six years there. But the Philadelphia Eagles’ signing of him was treated like Walter Payton coming to town. The reality is Barkley has three 1,000-yard rushing seasons, four seasons of more than 1,000 scrimmage yards, and he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry.

So the potential for massive production in Philly is there, but it’s no sure thing.

Alt would make sense for the Giants at No. 6 in the NFL draft.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

From KnightWhoSaysNih (@KonSeanneryy): Any chance Giants surprise everyone and take Joe Alt and put him at right tackle?

Ken, I don’t hate the idea, and there is a world where it makes sense. Evan Neal, who’s still just 23 years old, has taken time to develop, and he did spend one of his three years as a starting guard at Alabama. So you could kick him inside, and flip Alt from his college position of left tackle at Notre Dame to the right side.

I just put the possibility of something like that after the likelihood that the Giants take a quarterback or a receiver. If they stay put at No. 6, at least one of three top guys at those positions—J.J. McCarthy, Harrison and Malik Nabers—will be available. And if they move up, it’d almost certainly be for a quarterback. Given the value of having premium guys at either of those positions on rookie contracts, it makes a ton of sense for the Giants to address their needs there while they have a pick in the top 10.

I, to be clear, am always for stocking the lines of scrimmage first. But with a core group of Andrew Thomas and Neal on offense, and Burns, Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux on defense, New York should have the flexibility to juice its passing game here. And I’m also not really sure Alt gets past the Chargers at No. 5 anyway.

From DHL (@DrHotLunch): Cade Stover—will he be there when the New England Patriots pick at 103? Or do they need to move up a little?

DHL, I think that’s right in the wheelhouse for Stover, so, yes, the Patriots could have a shot at him right there. And if Bill Belichick were still in New England, it’d be a really fun fit, since Stover first came to Ohio State as a defensive player, playing significant snaps on that side of the ball earlier in his career.

I also don’t mind his fit as a second tight end alongside Hunter Henry. He’s a big, physical target. He has a ways to go as a blocker, but has the toughness and work ethic to get better in that area, too. And I do think he’d fit the culture Jerod Mayo’s looking to build.

From Adam Pietrzak (@theadogg99): Thoughts on the Derrick Brown extension?

Adam, it might be a little bit of an overpay for a defensive tackle who’s not the most productive pass rusher, but I don’t mind it because I think that Morgan, Tilis and Canales needed to do something to restore faith in the locker room that talent internally would be prioritized and rewarded.

From that standpoint, Brown checks all the boxes. He works hard, does the dirty work, and is respected in the locker room. Which is good as far as setting the example for what the new regime plans to invest in going forward.

From NMaste (@MistaMastah): We know Bowers is TE1—what does the next tier of TEs look like?

Mista, it’s a little iffy after Bowers. Both he and Texas’ Ja’Tavion Sanders have questions as far as their ability to block and play tight end in-line. And those two are probably the only ones who wind up going in the top 75 picks or so. After that, you have projections such as Stover and Theo Johnson from Penn State.

At least on paper, this isn’t a great year for the position.

Harrison could be the pick at No. 4 if the Cardinals don't trade the choice.

Brooke LaValley / USA TODAY NETWORK

From Tom Marshall (@aredzonauk): Are the Cardinals in the most valuable spot at No. 4?

Tom, yes, I think that is the critical spot in this year’s draft. If I had to draw it up right now, I’d say Williams to Chicago, Jayden Daniels to Washington, Maye to either New England or Minnesota, and then the Cardinals moving the fourth pick for a team coming to get McCarthy or sticking and picking Harrison.

So what are the chances Arizona moves the pick? It sounds like GM Monti Ossenfort wants a ransom for it. Maybe the price comes down. Or maybe he really values someone such as Harrison in that spot, making it harder for him to move off it.

(FYI, we did cover the Cardinals a couple weeks ago, examining the fascinating position they’ve put themselves in.) 

From Shedrick Carter (@shedrickcarter2): What is your best guess for the top 10 today?

Shedrick, we’ll do a mock soon, I promise. But I think the Vikings come up for McCarthy at No. 4. And if I’m guessing from there, Alt to the Chargers at No. 5, Harrison to the Giants at No. 6, Olu Fashanu to the Titans at No. 7, Dallas Turner to the Falcons at No. 8, maybe Malik Nabers at No. 9 to the Bears and JC Latham to the Jets at No. 10. But that’s just spitballing. 

From matty rollz (@Rillzzzy): Percent chance the Bills trade up into the 5–10 range to grab one of the top three receivers in the draft?

From Ryan (@RyanBuffalo01): Will the Bills trade up for a WR?

The Bills could use Nabers after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans.

Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Matty and Ryan, sure, it’s possible. You could make an argument that they’re in the spot the Falcons were when they moved up for Julio Jones. GM Brandon Beane hasn’t been afraid to be aggressive in the first round in the past.

So let’s say the above scenario plays out, and Nabers slides to No. 9, with the pick-deficient Bears sitting there. Would Beane then do what Thomas Dimitroff did in 2011, and package the 27th pick with a ’25 first-rounder, and maybe the 60th and 133rd picks to land the LSU star? With a full complement of 10 picks, the Bills would still have eight selections in this year’s draft, and a year to pick up more capital for ’25.

Beane might. But that’s a lot of moving parts, and Josh Allen’s cap numbers are rising, putting the value of draft picks, plural, and the associated ability to get cost-controlled talent on the roster, at a premium. The argument against that, of course, is that you could have a true No. 1 receiver for cheap as a result of such a trade for the next four years.

My conclusion: It’d really depend on how Beane and Sean McDermott value a guy such as Nabers. If you think he’s Julio? Then, yeah, you at least investigate it.

From Just the Start (@JustTheStart0): Are Michael Penix and Bo Nix surefire first-round picks?

No, though I’d say Penix has a better chance than Nix.

From CA&Dre (@CAandDre): What day is the NFL schedule release?

Mid-May. I don’t have the exact date, but I’m sure the league will let us know.