2026 NFL Stat Leader Predictions: Passing, Rushing, Receiving, Sacks and More

I’ve made some bad football predictions over the years, but I usually take it on the chin, admit my mistakes and move on. But nothing humbles me more than my yearly NFL stat-leader predictions.

I’m actually kind of embarrassed about last year’s performance. Somehow I got worse. Just look at this atrocious list. Malik Nabers barely played due to injury, Brian Thomas Jr. drastically regressed, Baker Mayfield fizzled out in the final two months and Omarion Hampton never had his dominant rookie season. Yikes.

But, again, I’ll take it on the chin and move on. I hope these annual predictions don’t become the new Madden curse. Anyway, here are my 2026 NFL season stat leaders.

Passing yards: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott put pressure on himself to deliver in 2026 after openly talking about the Super Bowl and aiming to have the greatest offense there is (GOTI).

I’ll buy what Prescott is selling and predict that he’ll back up his words this season. He has arguably the league’s best receiving tandem with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Also, Brian Schottenheimer proved last year that he can run a high-scoring offense (27.7 points per game) despite having more on his plate as head coach.

The ingredients are all there for Prescott to turn the Cowboys into the GOTI.

Passing TDs: Prescott

In the past two seasons, the league’s passing yards leaders have also led the NFL in passing touchdowns. Last year, Matthew Stafford recorded 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns. In 2024, Joe Burrow logged 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns.

The last time Prescott went over 4,600 yards was in 2019, when he threw for 4,902 yards. He’s never had a season with at least 40 touchdowns, with his career high being 37 touchdowns in ’21.

Prescott will likely need a career year to lead the league in both categories, but again, he has the ideal surroundings to do it in 2026.

Rushing yards: Bijan Robinson, Falcons

I’m going with Robinson for the second consecutive season.

Yes, I guessed incorrectly last year. Still, Robinson came close with 1,478 yards for fourth place, behind Jonathan Taylor (1,585), Derrick Henry (1,595) and James Cook (1,621). I’ll take any small wins after how poorly I’ve done with these predictions the past two summers.

But I feel better about Robinson’s chances this year, considering how bleak his quarterback room appears a few weeks away from the season opener. Tua Tagovailoa’s poor performances have made it “impossible” for the Falcons to ease Michael Penix Jr. back onto the field after spending the offseason recovering from a torn ACL. Atlanta now desperately needs Penix to be the starter by Week 1.

The Falcons are going to lean heavily on their workhorse back.

Rushing TDs: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

Gibbs could be headed for a career year now that he doesn’t have to split carries with David Montgomery, who was traded to Houston this offseason.

Detroit’s star running back has racked up 39 rushing scores since entering the league in 2023, including at least 13 in each of the past two seasons. Last year, Taylor had a league-high 18 touchdowns.

However, I do have concerns about how the Lions’ offense will run with new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The offense regressed a bit in its first season without Ben Johnson calling the plays.

Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins — Texans wide receiver Nico Collins hauled in 71 receptions last season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Receptions: Nico Collins, Texans

This pick might come as a surprise to some, but Collins could see a ton of targets after the Texans lost Jayden Higgins for the season after the second-year wideout sustained a torn ACL last week.

Additionally, the Texans traded with the Patriots to acquire Kayshon Boutte, whose skill set could take attention from Collins. Boutte can take the top off defenses and come down with contested catches.

But Collins will need to stay healthy to prove me right. He missed two games last year and five in 2024. And, yes, I’m rolling the dice on quarterback C.J. Stroud, but he has plenty of motivation to improve and land a lucrative contract extension.

Last year, Puka Nacua had a league-high 129 receptions. Collins’s career high is 80 receptions in 2023. This is certainly a bold prediction.

Receiving yards: Collins

I’m going with Collins again because of everything I’ve already mentioned regarding the Texans needing him more this season.

Also, we did pick the Texans to advance to the Super Bowl in our 2026 NFL season preview issue. (Conor Orr has them winning the whole thing.) So, of course, we’re expecting a memorable season in Houston—not just for the defense.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a league-high 1,793 yards in 2025. Here are Collins’s receiving yardage totals from the past three seasons: 1,297, 1,006 and 1,117. It’s not a bad bet.

Receiving TDs: George Pickens, Cowboys

The Cowboys have all the right pieces to produce better numbers than last year’s high-scoring unit.

Pickens could top his breakout 2025 season, when he recorded 93 catches for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns during his first year in Dallas. He has plenty of motivation to surpass those career numbers because he’s playing on the franchise tag.

Last year, Davante Adams had a league-high 14 touchdowns. Pickens is certainly capable of scoring that many touchdowns playing with Prescott and Lamb.

Scoring: Will Reichard, Vikings

Reichard emerged as one of the league’s top kickers last season, converting 33-of-35 on field-goal attempts, with his only two misses coming on kicks of more than 50 yards. He also was a perfect 31-of-31 on extra-point attempts.

Last year, Reichard finished ninth in scoring with 130 points, which is impressive considering how poorly the Vikings’ offense played in 2025. Minnesota should be in enemy territory more often this season with new starting quarterback Kyler Murray.

Last year, Jason Myers recorded a league-high 171 points, 11 more than runner-up Ka’imi Fairbairn.

Los Angeles Rams defensive end Myles Garrett — Rams defensive end Myles Garrett had an NFL-record 23 sacks last season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sacks: Myles Garrett, Rams

There’s no way I’m betting against Garrett, especially playing on a loaded Rams roster that’s a lot better than anything he had in nine seasons with the Browns.

Garrett could break his sack record with plenty of help in Los Angeles, and there’s still a chance Aaron Donald comes out of retirement to play with this stacked front. Somehow, Garrett recorded 23 sacks last year playing on a Browns team that trailed most of the season.

There’s plenty of hype surrounding what Garrett could do in his first season with the Rams. It’s certainly Garrett or the field for the sack category.

Interceptions: Kamari Lassiter, Texans

I need at least one Texans defender on this list. This could once again be the league’s best defense, a unit that will likely see plenty of takeaway opportunities in 2026.

Lassiter is a vastly underrated cornerback who’s capable of making quarterbacks pay for attacking his side of the field to avoid star cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.

In 2025, Lassiter, Stingley and safety Jalen Pitre each recorded four interceptions for Houston. Kevin Byard III led this category with seven interceptions last season.

Tackles: Carson Schwesinger, Browns

The Defensive Rookie of the Year wasted no time being an impactful sideline-to-sideline playmaker for the Browns in 2025.

The UCLA product recorded 156 tackles, which ranked sixth in the NFL. Jordyn Brooks had the most last season, with 183 total tackles.

With Garrett now in L.A., Schwesinger might be asked to clean up the mess often in his second season with the Browns.

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