Assessing the 49ers Draft: The Defense Should Make a Jump

On defense, holes were filled and followed a clear run-stuffing blueprint, led by two A picks in Georgia edge Mykel Williams and Indiana defensive tackle C.J. West. On offense, questionable team building with no long-term planning. Same ol’.

The national assessment of the 49ers draft is a backup chorus belting out, “If I could reeeeeeeach…higher!” followed by horrific grades. Whether that comes from PFF, Mel Kiper Jr., or Gloria Estefan they’re not wrong.

However, it’s poor aim to point the dreaded finger of blame at the players, the team’s process is at fault. This draft lent itself to reaching with wide talent pools at a given pick, but not two or three round reaches (Nick Martin 75 draft slots ahead of consensus, Upton Stout 95). Clearly the Niners do not care if they reach. To quote Andor’s Luthen Rael, “How nice for you.”

Reaching undercuts the advantage of having a poor record and picking earlier. Stats show no team in the league during the Kyle Shanahan regime reaches more than the Niners.

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Talent Acquisition

Solid B. Williams was a great pick, most of the picks on defense will contribute quickly and fit the athleticism profile. Great pick: Williams, West. Sneaky good pick: Stout, Marques Sigle. He’s a specialist not a three-down player (7.3% pass rush win rate, he sits on passing downs) and you’re taking him at 43: Alfred Collins. Great clay be patient: Nick Martin. Will Shanahan play these guys after camp: Jordan Watkins, Jordan James, Michael B. Jordan, Jacob Cowing after changing his first name to Jordan, and the 7th round.

Process

D-. They avoid the F by having the sense to turn to Robert Saleh in leading the picks on defense.

The Niners drafting in this regime is the equivalent of letting a 13-year-old do the shopping. They give Shanahan a list, he goes to the store and picks up pizza, ice cream, cookies, Pepsi and Cheez-Its, looks at the list while he’s in line, and runs back to the frozen food section to grab a bag of corn.

Shanahan makes a run to the mall, he’s told to get offensive linemen at Home Depot, nods assuredly, and comes back with a new PlayStation and the latest version of Madden.

In the last two drafts, the Niners have picked four wide receivers - and no offensive tackles.

The standard line in the press conferences is quality tackles are only available in the first. Ok then, the Niners had a deal in place with Pittsburgh for Brandon Aiyuk that included a pick swap to 20 last year. Golden opportunity to take a quality lineman in the best tackle draft in over a decade, and Shanahan burst through the door last minute canceling the deal.

John Lynch in his role as Kyle Translator said the Niners were interested in taking offensive linemen but had an “alignment problem.” When the team is reaching for players two or three rounds in advance there can't be an alignment problem. The issue is the same as it has always been - Shanahan wants his toys first.

Offensive Line

The Niners like their starters, the league has an ongoing supply and demand problem at OL, every team has bad backups, they need to get vets proven in wide zone instead of draft picks. Ok. Here’s the problem, they’ve kicked the can down the road so often that now they’ll be forced to either use next year’s draft to load up on offensive linemen and/or spend in free agency. I did not want Kelvin Banks Jr. this year, but I did want and expect they’d still take a tackle. Oops.

You don’t want to re-sign Colton McKivitz next year? They don’t have a tackle to replace him. It’s buy his replacement, draft one, or keep him at a market-value deal that’s way overpriced. Do you want to keep McKivitz at $20 million per? That’s why ignoring tackle in the draft is a singularly bad idea, it forces bad options, dictating draft picks or overpaying in free agency.

I think Trent Williams will play through his current deal, if he doesn’t, the options become even more forced.

Here are names to remember for next year’s draft: Francis Mauigoa (Miami) OT, Spencer Fano (Utah) OT, Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) OT, Charles Jagusah (Notre Dame) OG, Elijah Pritchett (Neb) OT, Caleb Lomu (Utah) OT, Cayden Green (Missouri) OG. The too early expectations for next year’s first round OL class. CBS projects the Niners drafting Lomu. Utah games will be must watch.

Defensive Line

Three defensive linemen drafted but none of them are sack artists. Collins and West had two sacks between them last year. Sacks are overrated I get that, but Williams goes inside, who’s the new edge on 3rd? That’s an unfilled hole.

Why is this a problem? The Niners were 25th last year in 3rd down conversions against. The argument is well with better run defense it’ll be 3rd and longer. They still need to get after the QB, can’t just wish this one away. “Well, I only care about run D.” Clearly.

So like the OL problem above, the solution to this is also forced. Blitzing. Which leads back to the Martin pick. Six sacks and 30 pressures on 98 pass down snaps in 2023. It also leads to Jason Pinnock, who after the Malik Mustapha injury may become their most important free agent signing. Pinnock had three sacks for the New York Giants last year.

Saleh isn’t known as a blitzer, but this year if the Niners don’t add a pass-rushing edge he’ll need to dial it up more often and bring at least five on third down.

Gratitude to The Coach for his exceptional work in our live stream draft coverage the first two days, and then joining with Jessie Naylor and David Liechty for a great time and conversation on the marathon Day 3. Thanks to all of them, and to those of you who joined us.

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