Why the 49ers secondary could be in trouble against the Buccaneers

Tough matchup.

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

One of the matchups that will decide the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers is whether the Bucs will be able to have success passing on the 49ers' secondary. Pro Football Focus listed Bucs receiver Emeka Egbuka against Deommodore Lenoir as the most important matchup of the game. 

Will the San Francisco 49ers struggle to defend Emeka Egbuka?

Buccaneers rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has had a hot start to his career, catching 25 passes for 445 yards and five touchdowns, compiling a 75.3 overall PFF grade. Egbuka also leads all receivers with eight catches and four touchdowns on receptions over 20 yards, proving to be a strong deep threat for Baker Mayfield.

He’ll face off against 49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir, who has allowed just 84 yards in coverage, earning a 60.2 PFF coverage grade. Lenoir’s 9.8 snaps per target is ninth among cornerbacks, and he’ll prove to be a tall order for the rookie Egbuka.

Thomas Valentine

Egbuka is the Bucs' best receiver, and Lenoir is the best player in the entire secondary, let alone the cornerback room. Still, Lenoi lines up specifically on the left side. He has 42 snaps in the slot, per Pro Football Focus, but even those snaps were on the left side. 

So, any time Emeka Egbuka lines up away from him, he will be in a much easier matchup. Tampa Bay does this often as well. Egbuka has 96 snaps on the right side, 95 snaps on the left side, and 99 in the slot. So, for two-thirds of the game, the Bucs are going to have their best receiver away from the 49ers' best cornerback. 

Mike Evans is out, and while Chris Godwin is back, he is averaging 0.73 yards per route run, while Egbuka is at 2.49. Sterling Shepherd is the next receiver, and he averages 1.31 yards per route. Egbuka is nearly twice as impactful as the next receiver on the field. The 49ers should go all-in to defend Egbuka, but it is hard to say that they will. 

San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Robert Saleh is known to call a more static defense than other teams, as he wants his players to play fast, knowing their assignments. This calls for similar looks, and while they have wrinkles, they do make big changes. Beyond that, he is a very zone-heavy coordinator. 

The 49ers had a chance to follow Lenoir with Marvin Harrison Jr. against the Arizona Cardinals. It did not cost them the game, but when the Cardinals needed a score late, they looked to the side of the field that Renardo Green was on, not Lenoir. 

When Tampa Bay needs a big play, you can expect to see Egbuka on the side that Green is playing, or even the slot in this scenario. 

It will be interesting to see how Saleh utilizes bracket coverages, shifts, and pressure to try to force the ball away from the star receiver in those moments. This game may not come down to Egbuka against Lenoir, but rather how many snaps San Francisco has when they do not align across from one another.