Will Elijah Mitchell Have Over or Under 950.5 Rushing Yards in 2022?

Running the football is a staple for the 49ers offense.

That is their bread and butter. It is a philosophy that Kyle Shanahan will forever stick to unless Trey Lance proves to be a quarterback that mustn’t have the ball taken away from him.

Every year, a running back of the 49ers turns into a stud. Elijah Mitchell has become that and stormed on as a massive surprise. Trey sermon was expected to be that guy, but Mitchell fits the ideal running style for the 49ers offense. The fact that he was close to racking a 1,000 yards rushing (had 963) despite missing six games is a testament to that. It’s also nothing short of impressive. Mitchell has the makings of an incredible running back, which is why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under of rushing yards at 950.5 for Mitchell.

So will Mitchell have over or under 950.5 rushing yards in 2022?

I’m going with the under. Mitchell has a great trajectory for him. Breaking a 1,000 yards rushing is definitely capable for him, but his body is bound to break down at some point. Now, he’s added on some muscle mass this offseason so that he can take on more punishment. But history has shown us that running backs miss time on the 49ers since Shanahan became head coach. Running backs are one of the most prone positions to sustain an injury but, if they’re on the 49ers, then it’s practically a guarantee they’ll miss time.

The injury aspect plays a role and so does the depth. Tyrion Davis-Price was drafted so that the 49ers do not have to use a workhorse running back again. They used to be a “running back by committee” offense. In 2019, they saw Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and even Jeff Wilson Jr. share the workload. Then once Mostert showed to be a baller, Shanahan just suddenly got rid of it. He did it again last year with Mitchell being the lone runner. It wasn’t until he converted Deebo Samuel into a runner that he realized the error of his ways.

Mitchell will tally a good number of yards. I expect him to be in the 800 range. But inevitable injuries that’ll force him to miss time and impending running back rotation will cap his production.

Are you taking the over or under at 950.5 yards rushing for Mitchell?