Will Raheem Mostert Have Over or Under 700.5 Rushing Yards?
Raheem Mostert was setup for a breakout season in 2020 as the starting 49ers running back.
Unfortunately for him, injuries derailed any momentum he could get going. Outside of the season opener against the Cardinals, Mostert never saw any success in any other limited action. This year he is sure to be back with an explosive ferocity in his game. His numbers should be relatively high. DraftKings Sportsbook has his over/under for rushing yards set at 700.5 yards for the season. If healthy for the majority of the season, this is something Mostert can accomplish.
So will Mostert have over or under 700.5 rushing yards in 2021?
I’m going to go over but ever so slightly. I envision roughly around 750 yards on the year for Mostert. For starters, trusting Mostert’s health isn’t something you can do with confidence. He could find himself out of action for a portion of the season again. Once you get passed the health factor, then there is the utilization factor, which is ultimately where it comes down to.
Mostert will see some snaps as a receiver, whether it is for a screen pass, check down, or running out of the backfield. That will take up a bit of the rushing yards output. Then you have the limited touches he could face. Mostert was dominant in 2019 when his touches stayed under or at 15 carries. This is probably what also lead to his body breaking down. He just might not be a bell cow running back.
This leads to the next point of Mostert’s usage. The 49ers will assuredly go by committee as they did in 2019. Trey Sermon and JaMycal Hasty have been receiving a good chunk of snaps with the first team since training camp started. These two players are going to make it easy to leave Mostert fresh and keep him under 15 carries per game. Since Mostert is such an efficient runner, he doesn’t need the volume. The guy can turn five of those carries into 10 yard gains or more easily. From there, Sermon and Hasty can make up the rest.
There’s justification on taking either the over or under for Mostert’s rushing yards. Regardless, you can’t go wrong. The 49ers offense is going to be committed to running the ball with a stable of vicious running backs.
Would you take the over or under?
