Assessing the Chances that 49ers QB Brock Purdy Wins MVP in 2026

Is he a long shot?

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Brock Purdy could be poised to win his first NFL MVP in 2026. Purdy is one of the ten most likely candidates to win the MVP this year, according to Seth Walder of ESPN, who notes that Purdy has undeniable numbers when he is healthy.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is pushing for an MVP in 2026

To be fair. Walder listed all ten, and Purdy was the tenth name listed. Still, it was hard for the insider to get through the list without mentioning the 49ers quarterback. 

On one hand, the quarterback of any team with a winning record is a good bet to be in the MVP race. The 49ers are expected to make the playoffs once again in 2026, so if Purdy stays healthy, he is going to be one of the names in the conversation. 

On top of that, when he has the right pieces around him, he can produce like an MVP. Purdy finished in fourth in MVP voting back in 2023. He put up 31 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Injuries around him in 2024 impacted his numbers, as he had just 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. An injury to Purdy hurt any chance he had of being in the running for MVP in 2025. 

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However, his 2025 could be a reason for optimism in 2026. Purdy threw the same number of touchdowns in 2025 as he did the year prior. Due to the injury, he did that on 171 fewer attempts. His touchdown rate was 7%, which was identical to the career-high 31 touchdown season. So, if Purdy played a full season, his numbers would have been right back to his MVP-contending ones.

The argument against Purdy is simple, and it mostly comes back to coaching. He has one of the best playcallers in the NFL, and a lot of quarterbacks do well under Kyle Shanahan. Mac Jones had a nice run with Shanahan when Purdy missed time last year. Beyond that, when you have Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle, and Mike Evans, you are not going to get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to supporting cast.

Lastly, Purdy missed ten games over the past two seasons. He cannot get hurt and win the MVP. 

Purdy has just as good a chance in 2026 as he did in 2023.  However, he will have to put up great numbers and stay healthy all year.