How the 49ers will beat the Seahawks in the season finale

The winning formula doesn’t change; long sustained drives

Nov 17, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) rushes the ball while be pursued by Seattle Seahawks linebacker Derick Hall (58) in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

The battle for the 1 seed is here, and the Niners will look to get the victory as they have throughout this win streak, consistency on offense. The Seattle defense will have plenty to say about that; it won’t be the high-scoring games of the past month. Three keys to the game: protect the ball, 3rd down conversions, and red zone touchdowns.

Protect the ball

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After Brock Purdy threw three picks against Carolina, he had a career- high seven throwaways the following week. He turned a corner in mindset, and has thrown only two interceptions in his last four games.

Being smart with the ball is essential in this game, where Mike Macdonald will dial up simulated pressure, disguise coverages, blitz Nick Emmanwori, and get to Purdy quickly with an excellent front four.

Kyle Shanahan’s answer to that is the horizontal passing game. Purdy has held the ball and made off-schedule plays against inferior defenses in recent weeks. Against Seattle, he’ll have to throw short and get the ball out to beat the rush.

Purdy’s pass distribution in the opener emphasized the quick game; 18 of his 25 completions were five yards or fewer. He completed 18 of 19 of those throws. The Niners then need to win in space.

The weather factors into ball protection; forecasts vary. Google predicts a 20% chance of rain during the game, the Weather Channel says there will be steady light rain early evening, then harder rain later. If there is steady rain, Levi’s doesn’t hold up well in the 2nd half of rain games. Last year’s Rams game in the rain was 12-6 LA with Matthew Stafford throwing for under 160 yards and Purdy less.

A better playing surface early and worse late helps the Niners as they score often on the opening script and can build an early lead, while the Seahawks have scored seven or less in the first half of their last four. If the Seahawks need to come back in the 2nd half, it’ll be harder in the rain and slop, if the weather breaks that way.

3rd down conversions

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The 49ers offense leads the league in 3rd down conversions at 51%. The Seahawks defense leads the league in lowest 3rd down conversion rate against at 32.4% Strength-on-strength.

Stats are trendlines; big games are matchups. Shanahan excels at getting the ball to Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle in space and looks to win that matchup on talent. This is where Seattle is weakest. They struggle in pass coverage against backs and tight ends, and they are 27th in missed tackles, sixth most in the league.

McCaffrey and Kittle should win the matchup most of the time, and that keeps the sticks moving. That’s the heart of this game for the Niners on offense, winning in space on 3rd.

To do that, Purdy needs to have enough time; Macdonald will look to take that time away. Trent Williams is a game-time decision with a bad hamstring; Austen Pleasants is more likely to start. Macdonald excels at attacking the weak link on an offense line. The Niners will need to devote resources to give Pleasants chip help or roll away from him. The 49er offensive line is playing its best football of the year, with Spencer Burford a surprise at left guard.

The Seattle defense is built to take away explosives through flexibility. They use Emmanwori as a chess piece covering three different roles in pass coverage, run d, and blitzing. But of those three, he is weakest in coverage against tight ends.

The San Francisco offense doesn’t depend on explosives; they live on long sustained drives. Again, it’s who wins in space on passes under five yards.

Emmanwori barely played in the opener, going down with an injury early. Kittle went out late in the first half. Purdy played through injury 2nd half with an injured toe and left shoulder, and didn't scramble.

Red zone touchdowns

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The Niners have scored touchdowns on 13 of their last 18 red zone possessions in the last four games. Shanahan has added a wrinkle where Purdy fakes to McCaffrey and keeps it, defenders peel away to McCaffrey and Purdy goes in untouched. Macdonald will be ready for that.

For the Niner defense, can they hold Seattle to field goals red zone? For a defense that can’t get sacks, its best moments are situational.

Seattle is 7th in red zone defense; the Niners are 15th. On offense, the Niners are the league’s best in the last four games, but Purdy will have less space and time to operate.

Prediction

I broke down Seattle’s offense vs. the 49er defense in the last column. Sam Darnold has an opportunity to rewrite his narrative. It’s on him to deliver, and he has not produced in recent first halves.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba will get his, but he had 124 yards in the opener and the Hawks only scored 13. The Niners need to keep him out of the end zone.

It’s stopping the run that will likely be Robert Saleh’s focus. He’s been trending nickel, but Seattle has the most effective running attack vs. nickel at over five yards per carry. Saleh will need to bring different looks.

I expect JSN to have a big game, A.J. Barner to get more looks than he normally does, and Rashid Shaheed to be an X-Factor targeted against Renardo Green.

The Niners have done a solid job recently against the run; it’s limiting Seattle on first to set up passing on 3rd that will be key for them. Seattle has a UDFA starter at left tackle, Saleh may send blitzes at him on passing downs, it’s more the running game where a 3rd string LT  can have a negative impact for the Seahawks.

My focus is third down on offense, the Niners target McCaffrey and Kittle in the air, and Seattle can’t stop it. If that happens, the Niners sustain long drives, play complementary football, and get the win. Tight, physical, strength on strength, with San Francisco winning on the matchups that matter most.

49ers 23 Seattle 20